Texas Winter 2013-2014

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
Stormnut
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 79
Joined: Tue Dec 10, 2013 2:39 pm
Location: Baton Rouge, La

Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#4121 Postby Stormnut » Tue Jan 21, 2014 10:48 am

[quoteTheProfessor][/quote]

Twisterdata.com

You can watch the GFS roll in there.
0 likes   
Top
cigtyme
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 69
Age: 51
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2010 10:57 am
Location: Houma, La

Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#4122 Postby cigtyme » Tue Jan 21, 2014 10:54 am

I'm confused on that site. Imma Noob a little help regaurding watching the GFS come in :(


Think I kind of got it
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 23079
Age: 68
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#4123 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jan 21, 2014 10:57 am

12Z GFS run is still dry for east and SE TX post-frontal. A little light precip for the hill country.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
gboudx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4080
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 1:39 pm
Location: Rockwall, Tx but from Harvey, La

Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#4124 Postby gboudx » Tue Jan 21, 2014 10:58 am

cigtyme wrote:I'm confused on that site. Imma Noob a little help regaurding watching the GFS come in :(


Think I kind of got it


On the top, click "GFS". All the controls are on the left side. You'll see 3 hour time increments at the top-left. Green means it's in, red means it's not yet. Down the left side you can select what specific about the run you want to see, like Wind & Height, Temperature, Moisture, etc. Have fun!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Big O
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 252
Age: 55
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2007 4:40 pm
Location: McAllen, Texas

#4125 Postby Big O » Tue Jan 21, 2014 10:58 am

Light to moderate snow for west Texas and parts of central Texas at hour 66.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Big O
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 252
Age: 55
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2007 4:40 pm
Location: McAllen, Texas

#4126 Postby Big O » Tue Jan 21, 2014 10:59 am

Hour 72, light snow for all of central Texas and very light snow for Houston and southeast Texas.
0 likes   
Top
stormlover2013

Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#4127 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Jan 21, 2014 11:00 am

its going to be really close, we won't till thurs.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 63
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:
Contact Portastorm

Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#4128 Postby Portastorm » Tue Jan 21, 2014 11:02 am

wxman57 wrote:12Z GFS run is still dry for east and SE TX post-frontal. A little light precip for the hill country.


Amounts appear light but duration of 18 hours for AUS would still mean societal chaos/traffic issues. Of course, the 12z NAM showed about 24 hours straight of light precip for AUS.

We've got a seat for you in the front row for tomorrow's press conference, wxman57! :wink:
0 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
Top
User avatar
Tireman4
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5858
Age: 60
Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:08 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:
Contact Tireman4

#4129 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Jan 21, 2014 11:04 am

Big O, are you and Wxman57 seeing the same models?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Big O
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 252
Age: 55
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2007 4:40 pm
Location: McAllen, Texas

Re:

#4130 Postby Big O » Tue Jan 21, 2014 11:06 am

Tireman4 wrote:Big O, are you and Wxman57 seeing the same models?


We should be. I am looking at 12z GFS 3-hour accumulated snowfall off the WxBell site; I believe Wxman57 looks at the same model output.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Texas Snowman
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 6181
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
Location: Denison, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#4131 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Jan 21, 2014 11:07 am

@BigJoeBastardi: Think guidance not cold enough in Texas with arctic attack. Should be 5-9 lower than GFS 23 in DFW

m.twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Top
Stormnut
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 79
Joined: Tue Dec 10, 2013 2:39 pm
Location: Baton Rouge, La

Re:

#4132 Postby Stormnut » Tue Jan 21, 2014 11:09 am

Tireman4 wrote:Big O, are you and Wxman57 seeing the same models?


Wxman just wont let us have any fun! His shtick is getting a lil old..
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 63
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:
Contact Portastorm

Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#4133 Postby Portastorm » Tue Jan 21, 2014 11:11 am

As srainhoutx has noted to me, it's interesting to watch the 500mb flow pattern per the GFS through 96 hours. The model takes the shortwave up and over the ridge, brings it down the east side of the ridge/west side of the trough and then buries it underneath and relatively cuts it off offshore of California. If that does indeed happen, it is easy to understand why the GFS is on a drier trend. And it appears to be the same reason WHY the Euro is also relatively dry. But the NAM and short-range ensembles (SREF) do not take that approach and, thus, they appear much "wetter." They do not bury the upper-level energy beneath the West Coast ridge but instead move it through Texas.

Which model will be right? That's the $10,000 question at the moment.
0 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
Top
User avatar
gboudx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4080
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 1:39 pm
Location: Rockwall, Tx but from Harvey, La

Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#4134 Postby gboudx » Tue Jan 21, 2014 11:12 am

Texas Snowman wrote:@BigJoeBastardi: Think guidance not cold enough in Texas with arctic attack. Should be 5-9 lower than GFS 23 in DFW

m.twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi


Joe is not one short on hyperbole.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

#4135 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jan 21, 2014 11:17 am

I absolutely love this thread every single day. It is really fun seeing all of the gang here from Texas doing battle seemingly against wxman57 LOL..

You guys are very entertaining! All in fun for us weather enthusiasts!
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Top
gpsnowman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3215
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 10:35 am
Location: Grand Prairie Tx

Re: Re:

#4136 Postby gpsnowman » Tue Jan 21, 2014 11:18 am

Stormnut wrote:
Tireman4 wrote:Big O, are you and Wxman57 seeing the same models?


Wxman just wont let us have any fun! His shtick is getting a lil old..

He gets the best of us due to location. We are in Texas and Louisiana for the most part. 57 calls it as he sees it, which is normally too warm or dry for any winter fun down in these parts. Imagine if we all lived in Chicago or Boston. 57 would not know what hit him!!!
I do hope we can get some revenge at some point this winter and this week could be it!!!!
Last edited by gpsnowman on Tue Jan 21, 2014 11:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 63
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:
Contact Portastorm

Re:

#4137 Postby Portastorm » Tue Jan 21, 2014 11:19 am

northjaxpro wrote:I absolutely love this thread every single day. It is really fun seeing all of the gang here from Texas doing battle seemingly against wxman57 LOL..

You guys are very entertaining! All in fun for us weather enthusiasts!


Glad to have you along ... and yes, it is all in good fun. Hopefully nobody gets too worked up over it.

Don't worry, we in Texas will live vicariously through you and your Florida folks come tropical weather season since we never seem to have any action on this end of the Gulf anymore.
0 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
Top
User avatar
TheProfessor
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3506
Age: 29
Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:56 am
Location: Wichita, Kansas

#4138 Postby TheProfessor » Tue Jan 21, 2014 11:20 am

So 12 GFS is drier? What exactly is it showing for North Texas
0 likes   
An alumnus of The Ohio State University.

Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
Top
User avatar
Tireman4
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5858
Age: 60
Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:08 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:
Contact Tireman4

Re: Re:

#4139 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Jan 21, 2014 11:21 am

Don't worry, we in Texas will live vicariously through you and your Florida folks come tropical weather season since we never seem to have any action on this end of the Gulf anymore.[/quote]


We had Don Porta...:)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Tireman4
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5858
Age: 60
Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:08 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:
Contact Tireman4

#4140 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Jan 21, 2014 11:22 am

A question for all. Has the NAM and GFS improved since 2009? I know it is yes, but by how much and can it be quantified?
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 130 guests