FRI CDN Ens. runs: 78% hit US and 28% hit FL!

[LarryWx]

I just looked at the surface maps for the 18 individual members of the 0Z FRI 9/12 CDN Ensemble and see a VERY wide array of Isabel tracks as well as no fewer than 14 of the 18 (78%) implying a U.S. hit anywhere from New England down to Florida from as early as day 4 to as late as day 11 (implied by day 10 map)! Here is the summary of the individual members:

1) New England - 1 shows a hit day 9 (GEM F)
2) VA/MD/DE/NJ - 2 show a hit: days 7-8 (GEM B) and day 10 (GEM G)
3) NC/VA border - 2 show a hit: day 8 (Operational) and day 6 (SEF 6)
4) NC - 1 shows a hit: days 6-7 (SEF 4)
5) SC - 2 show a hit: day 4-5 (SEF 2) and day 6 (SEF 3)
6) GA/SC border - 1 shows a hit: days 9-10 (GEM A)
7) FL/GA border - 1 implies a hit on day 11 based on maps from days 9-10 (SEF 7)
8) FL - 4 show a hit: day 5 (SEF 8); day 6 (GEM E); day 7 (GEM H); and day 10 (GEM C)
9) Fish: 4 show this: SEF 0, SEF 1, SEF 5, and GEM D (admittedly this one looked vague/strange but appeared to me to be a fish)

No one individual member solution is too important. However, this ensemble run tells me three things:
A) The chance of a U.S. hit is getting higher and is now pretty high.
B) The location of that hit could be just about anywhere on the U.S. east coast with the day of the hit varying very widely from about day 5 to about day 11.
C) Whereas the implication of a number of recent operational model runs from various models is to lower the chance for FL to get hit, this run's 5 FL hits including the one near the FL/GA border (28% of the 18 runs) tells me that this trend may not be set in stone yet.

[ameriwx2003]

Larrywx.. Thanks for that info. :) Still looks like a wide range along the East Coast

[cycloneye]

Indicates that all the people up the east coast from South Florida to Maine must watch this.

[JCT777]

Great statistics, Larry. Seems that a fish storm is unlikely.

[Josephine96]

78 percent hit US but 28 of those 78 percent hit Florida..

Hmm.. scary odds to have that high of odds hit Florida..

[Aquawind]

You keep on crunching the numbers Larry. If you don't have a math degree you must have taken a Statistics course. If neither you should..it may be your true calling..

Keep on crunching..

[Ground_Zero_92]

Thanks Larry. It's going to be a long weekend and week to come for the EC. I guess the red flag for any particular part of the EC would come when the models come closer together and it's evident that the steering is from the ridge or trough.

For right now though, everyone on the east coast needs to monitor Isabel