Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Stormcenter]

Way too early to call anything anywhere IMO especially when it's a winter weather type event.

I guess this precip shield just won't make it to southeast Louisiana? I hope someone gets a foot of snow out of it even if it can't be me!

[wxman57]

Short-lived cold for TX. Back to the upper 60s early next week. Nothing significant indicated in the extended plot:

[South Texas Storms]

12Z GFS has nothing in the way of precip even remotely close to the Metroplex. Way too dry up north. NAM has much more precip across TX than the GFS. An inch or so in the Metroplex Friday and 1-3" on the north side of Houston (Huntsville to Liberty). NAM typically overdoes the precip.

Except for 2010 Snowmaggedon

Yeah the NAM is sometimes the first model to pick up on increasing amounts of wintry precip across Texas. Hopefully that's the case here!

[Portastorm]

This coming from the same guy who says "don't trust the models beyond 4-5 days." And you're going to trust the GFS for next week when it can't even get this week's late weather down steady?!

Folks, don't let Heat Miser's attempt to take your eyes off the ball work. He's clearly in trouble and all of his forecasts of "nothing coming until the second week of February" have failed. Keep the faith and onward we move to Texas Winter Weather glory.

[Stormcenter]

You beat me to it.

:uarrow:

This coming from the same guy who says "don't trust the models beyond 4-5 days." And you're going to trust the GFS for next week when it can't even get this week's late weather down steady?!

Folks, don't let Heat Miser's attempt to take your eyes off the ball work. He's clearly in trouble and all of his forecasts of "nothing coming until the second week of February" have failed. Keep the faith and onward we move to Texas Winter Weather glory.

[Houstonia]

I'm reading this thread and so confused... are we wanting snow/freezing rain or are we not wanting snow/freezing rain?

LOL. Please help me out here!!

[Tireman4]

:uarrow:

This coming from the same guy who says "don't trust the models beyond 4-5 days." And you're going to trust the GFS for next week when it can't even get this week's late weather down steady?!

Folks, don't let Heat Miser's attempt to take your eyes off the ball work. He's clearly in trouble and all of his forecasts of "nothing coming until the second week of February" have failed. Keep the faith and onward we move to Texas Winter Weather glory.

Yeah, if the temperatures upcoming were in the 80's, shoot he would be shouting from the rooftops. If it were showing that 2 weeks from now, he would say ", It is ok, the models tend to do well with warmth than the cold". Ha!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Tireman4]

I'm reading this thread and so confused... are we wanting snow/freezing rain or are we not wanting snow/freezing rain?

LOL. Please help me out here!!

I think, and I am not a amateur met or pro met, that this situation is ever evolving. I think Thursdays model will have a clearer focus....12Z...

[gpsnowman]

Snowmageddon. Quite possibly my favorite winter storm ever. I remember a local weatherman, the night before the snow started, forecasting 1 to 2 inches possible less than 10 hours before we got a foot+. Not saying this will even come close to happening. But with so many models showing many scenarios a surprise could be in store for someone. I'm kinda pulling for Portastorm with this one.

[perk]

:uarrow:

This coming from the same guy who says "don't trust the models beyond 4-5 days." And you're going to trust the GFS for next week when it can't even get this week's late weather down steady?!

Folks, don't let Heat Miser's attempt to take your eyes off the ball work. He's clearly in trouble and all of his forecasts of "nothing coming until the second week of February" have failed. Keep the faith and onward we move to Texas Winter Weather glory.

Port you're right, heat miser picks and chooses the models and time frames that best suits his end game.

[CaptinCrunch]

From this mornings NWS FTW AFD

THE POLAR VORTEX ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND WILL
EXPAND WESTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN THE COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEEPEN AN EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL WIND COMPONENT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST TOWARD
THE HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAIN. SATURATION OF THE THETA-E
SURFACES SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE...WACO...PALESTINE
LINE. SPOTTY LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION BEGINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND LINGERS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOUNDING ANALYSIS CONCURS
WITH PARTIAL THICKNESS AND TOP DOWN METHODS ON AN INITIAL RAIN...
SLEET AND SNOW MIX ACROSS OUR CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO TRANSITION QUICKLY TO A SLEET/SNOW MIX OR
EVEN ALL LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW FLURRIES BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. FEEL THE
MIX IS BETTER HERE AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN BETWEEN 850-700MB
REMAINS BETWEEN 0 AND -5 DEG C. FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED
DUE TO ANY WARM NOSE ALOFT BEING BRIEF AND ELEVATED. AREAS FURTHER
NORTH WILL SEE PLENTY OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND DO NOT EXPECT
ANYTHING MORE THAN THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL PLUMMET INTO
THE TEENS NORTHWEST TO LOWER-MID 20S SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY MORNING.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS GRIP ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
STILL STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE 30S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 40S
SOUTHWEST. THE BROAD VORTEX ALOFT DOES LOOK TO WEAKEN AND DAMPEN BY
THE WEEKEND AND MAKE THIS ARCTIC INTRUSION A BRIEF ONE. LOW LEVEL
S/SW FLOW WILL RETURN AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT TAKES HOLD FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND INTO THE 60S
ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE SIGNS OF ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH THE MODELS CERTAINLY DIFFER ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF
THE EASTERN CONUS VORTEX AND TIMING...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING AN
EARLIER AN ARRIVAL ON MONDAY. THESE DIFFERENCES SHOULD IRON
THEMSELVES OUT AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK.

[South Texas Storms]

12z CMC looks slightly wetter than it's 0z run. Hard to tell, but it looks like most of the precip across south central Texas is a freezing rain/sleet mix.

The 12z UKMET is also pretty wet across much of south and central Texas.

Now on to the 12z Euro in about 30 mins.

[Stormcenter]

Graphics please....thanks!

12z CMC looks slightly wetter than it's 0z run. Hard to tell, but it looks like most of the precip across south central Texas is a freezing rain/sleet mix.

The 12z UKMET is also pretty wet across much of south and central Texas.

Now on to the 12z Euro in about 30 mins.

[South Texas Storms]

Here's the 12z UKMET precip totals on Thursday night. Much of the precip across central Texas is likely frozen.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[srainhoutx]

12z CMC looks slightly wetter than it's 0z run. Hard to tell, but it looks like most of the precip across south central Texas is a freezing rain/sleet mix.

The 12z UKMET is also pretty wet across much of south and central Texas.

Now on to the 12z Euro in about 30 mins.

The Canadian is definitely 'wetter'. The CMC also develops a Coastal Low just SE of Brownsville where it had not showed an actual surface low developing in prior runs before today.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

CMC put a smile on my face

[stormlover2013]

I like the cmc!!!

[BigB0882]

The CMC is only through Thursday night on that map? Could some precip make it to SELA but just not show based on being after that time frame? I will take a coastal low, as well, please. Cold core, please.

[South Texas Storms]

The CMC is only through Thursday night on that map? Could some precip make it to SELA but just not show based on being after that time frame? I will take a coastal low, as well, please. Cold core, please.

That map is the UKMET and it only goes out to 72 hours.

[Big O]

12z European: Light snow beginning over west-central Texas at hour 60. Expanding eastward and in coverage at hour 66. At hour 72, light snow across much of west-central, central, southeast, and parts of south Texas. Some places northwest of the Coastal Bend (i.e., between CRP and San Antonio) have as much as an inch of snow. By hour 84, light snow has expanded to include all of Southeast Texas and parts of southwestern Louisiana. Keep in mind that the snow is very light, but the Euro has a tendency to underestimate QPF.