Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Portastorm]

Here's the latest take from EWX on wintry weather possibilities for south central Texas:

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL RACE TOWARD THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH MINOR DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS S CENTRAL TX...BRINGING
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WINDY AND MUCH COLDER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BELOW FREEZING ALL
AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH 20S TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ALL AREAS BY
SUNRISE FRIDAY. IN ADDITION A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I35 CORRIDOR
WHERE WINDS TEND TO BE CLOSER TO THE SUSTAINED 25 MPH THRESHOLD.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION/MIX OF WINTER PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A 24-36 HOUR
PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS ABOVE THE COLD AIRMASS. WILL SEE
LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES DEVELOPING THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A MIX
OF WINTER PRECIPITATION(LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SLEET/SNOW) BEGINNING AS
EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY/EDWARDS
PLATEAU. THEN A MORE WIDESPREAD MIX OF WINTER PRECIPITATION
CHANGING OVER FROM LIGHT RAIN TO A MIX OF LIGHT SLEET AND SNOW
OVER MOST ALL OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE
SHOWING A DEEP LAYER OF SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE LOW
LEVELS WHICH INDICATES SLEET/SNOW RATHER THAN THE PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED FREEZING RAIN. MODELS STILL SHOW LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS WITH
THE NAM SHOWING HIGHER POCKETS OF ONE TENTH INCH. HAVE INCLUDED
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OF ONE TENTH
TO NEAR ONE QUARTER INCH. THESE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST PACKAGES. OTHERWISE THE
WINTER PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM THE WEST FRIDAY MORNING AS A
SHORT WAVE PASSES AND THE DRY NWLY FLOW RESUMES ACROSS TX LATE
FRIDAY.

[Rgv20]

NWS Corpus Christi afternoon discussion..

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER CENTRAL CANADA AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES INTO WESTERN
CANADA WILL BEGIN SURGING SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY AS CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. ARCTIC HIGH WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS WITH 1050 MB HIGH OVER SOUTH DAKOTA THURSDAY MORNING. THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
MODESTLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.9 TO 1.0 INCH WILL
REMAIN OVER SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WARM MOIST AIR
AROUND 85H WILL BE LIFTED OVER THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS WITH AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILE
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR
LIGHT SLEET LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING NORTH OF A
LINE THAT IS JUST SOUTH OF LAREDO TO VICTORIA. WENT WITH EMCWF
DEPICTION OF MODEST 85H WARM AIR ADVECTION LEADING TO LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. CONCERNED WITH 12Z NAM
SHOWING SUBSTANTIAL WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 85H DUE TO INCREASED
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF AROUND 45 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD
LEAD TO MUCH HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. BUT 85H GRADIENT DOES NOT
SUPPORT THIS STRENGTHENING. WILL ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
REGARDING WINTRY PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS. ANOTHER ASPECT WITH THE
FRONT IS THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP...THE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S ON FRIDAY. WARMING
TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH THE NEXT FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH THIS FRONT BEING DRY.

[Rgv20]

Local Weatherman has a high of 38 with rain for the McAllen area on Friday.

[stormlover2013]

With the arctic cold drop about 3-4 degrees from that!! Not official forecast

[Portastorm]

Oh ... this is probably the kiss of death for me.



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[PTrackerLA]

Well latest NWS forecast still holds onto some slight chances of snow even as the models have failed to show ANY appreciable QPF for south Louisiana for almost 48 hours now. There were 2 really nice looking runs of the GFS two days ago and I knew not to get too encouraged by the possibility. I guess I'm sharing this with my Texan neighbors so they can deal with the latest model trends . I'm almost getting tired of these dry freezing temps because everything is already dead and we are building rainfall deficits fairly quickly. Could be a rapid transition to heat and drought this spring if this pattern continues another month...hope I'm wrong!

[Tireman4]

HGX NWS AFD....


000
FXUS64 KHGX 212144
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
344 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUE OVER SE TX THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAS
DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC COAST AND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE AMPLIFIED FLOW
WILL PUSH THE CURRENT COLD AIRMASS OUT OF THE AREA AND BRING FAIR
SKIES AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE INTO SE TX BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY.
THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS OF NOTE WILL BE CHANCES FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND COLD
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH THE PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL BE START OUT DRY BUT WILL
MOISTEN UP OVER THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TAPS INTO PACIFIC MOISTURE. THE NAM12
HOLDS OFF ON RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE
GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP RAINFALL THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS THE 12Z NAM12 MOISTENS UP THE LOW-
LEVELS...DEVELOPS GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE MOIST AIRMASS WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE COAST...AND KEEPS SE TX UNDER THE RIGHT
REAR QUAD OF THE UPPER JET. THE GFS AND ECMWF END THE
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING WHILE THE NAM12 ENDS IT FRIDAY
EVENING.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF ON THURSDAY...AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL THREE MODELS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING AFTER
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL MEAN THAT THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET IF THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FROM
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT TO MID MORNING FRIDAY WENT WITH A CHANCE OF
SLEET AND SNOW MIXED WHERE THE COLDEST PART OF THE AIRMASS WILL
BE LOCATED...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CALDWELL TO
TRINITY.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE MID 20S MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR. WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY...THE TEMPERATURES MAY
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME WARMING THROUGH THE 30S. TRENDING DOWN THE
HIGHS FOR FRIDAY CLOSER TO THE ECMWF OUTPUT. AFTER ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...EXPECT WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.

[Rgv20]

Oh ... this is probably the kiss of death for me.

[img]http://img836.imageshack.us/img836/8802/amp0.png

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Have some faith Porta! 40 of the 51 12zECMWF Ensembles are showing Snow for Austin with the Ensemble Mean around half an inch!

[Tireman4]

Oh ... this is probably the kiss of death for me.

[img]http://img836.imageshack.us/img836/8802/amp0.png

Uploaded with [url=http://imageshack.us]ImageShack.us

Have some faith Porta! 40 of the 51 12zECMWF Ensembles are showing Snow for Austin with the Ensemble Mean around half an inch!

How many are showing snow for Houston? (yeah, do not laugh..) LOL

[Stormcenter]

I actually think the chances are better for seeing some wintry mix in SE TX. and all of S. LA. IMO

Still several days out.

Well latest NWS forecast still holds onto some slight chances of snow even as the models have failed to show ANY appreciable QPF for south Louisiana for almost 48 hours now. There were 2 really nice looking runs of the GFS two days ago and I knew not to get too encouraged by the possibility. I guess I'm sharing this with my Texan neighbors so they can deal with the latest model trends . I'm almost getting tired of these dry freezing temps because everything is already dead and we are building rainfall deficits fairly quickly. Could be a rapid transition to heat and drought this spring if this pattern continues another month...hope I'm wrong!

[Rgv20]

How many are showing snow for Houston? (yeah, do not laugh..) LOL

You will be surprise.....31 of 51 ECMWF Ensemble Members show Snow for Houston/Hobby with the Ensemble Mean of 0.6-0.7 give or take.

[Tireman4]

How many are showing snow for Houston? (yeah, do not laugh..) LOL

You will be surprise.....31 of 51 ECMWF Ensemble Members show Snow for Houston/Hobby with the Ensemble Mean of 0.6-0.7 give or take.

Holy Moly. I will take that Rgv 20. Thank you ( you know I will wait until the 12z Thursday models, but hey...sounds good.... By the way, I am 30 miles north of Hobby. I am at Houston/IAH.

[TheProfessor]

is there even one ensemble showing anything for North Texas?!

[South Texas Storms]

Here is a cool tool from the SPC showing the plumes of model data from the SREF. Once you click on your location, you can find all of the individual ensemble runs total snowfall forecast by clicking on the Total-SNO on the left side of the page.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/

It looks like the 15z SREF is wetter across much of Texas compared to its 9z run.

[TheProfessor]

Here is a cool tool from the SPC showing the plumes of model data from the SREF. Once you click on your location, you can find all of the individual ensemble runs total snowfall forecast by clicking on the Total-SNO on the left side of the page.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/

It looks like the 15z SREF is wetter across much of Texas compared to its 9z run.

Thanks for this, I am seeing more ensembles trending to higher precip from the 3z to the 15z. It has gone from a 4.5% of the ensembles showing precip above .14 in, to 18% of the ensembles showing precip of .14 in or higher. Thats a 400% Increase! Maybe the next run could be a 800% increase?

[TheProfessor]

The 15z SREF also has an average amount of snow of .51 inches. but there are 2 ensembles that go above 2" and 1 that goes above 4"

[TeamPlayersBlue]

How did yo uget those percentages?

Edit: Showing from 03z to 15z a mean avg increase from .09 qpf to .13.

There is one BIG outlier though showing .5 liquid with all snow for HOU.

[TheProfessor]

How did yo uget those percentages?

by dividing the total percentage of the 15z models with total qpf above .14" by the total percentage of the 3z ensembles above .14".

edit: Yeah we have one that shows .35 and two that show .25. This qpf though not total snow accumulations.

[TheProfessor]

The moral of my above posts is there is at least a chance for North Texas. It's small but it's there.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

up to 50% Thurs night, 40% Friday for Sugar Land. Temps the same