SPAC: INVEST 98P

[jaguarjace]

20.0S 165.3W

[stormkite]

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.2S 165.5W,
APPROXIMATELY 460 NM SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND
WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE LATEST
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP ALONG WITH A 220220Z SSMI MICROWAVE
IMAGE ADDITIONALLY SHOWS DRY AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE
WEST. A 211951Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE LATEST AMSU CROSS SECTION SHOWS A WARM
CORE ANOMALY AT APPROXIMATELY 14 TO 18 KILOMETERS WHILE THERE IS A
WEAK COLD CORE ANOMALY LOCATED THROUGHOUT THE LOWER LEVELS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POOR ENVIRONMENT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
POSITIONED OVER THE LLCC WHILE THERE IS MODERATE (15-25 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACTING UPON THE SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS DATA, THE
SYSTEM IS CLASSIFIED AS SUBTROPICAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SUBTROPICAL
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.


i think 98P may separate from the frontal and go tropical.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

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[stormkite]

ABPW10 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/221500Z-230600ZJAN2014//

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.2S
165.5W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.5S 167.7W, APPROXIMATELY 405 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION AND BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 220912Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A SMALL AREA OF SHEARED DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST. A 220913Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A HIGHLY
ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH SOME 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED FROM
THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POOR ENVIRONMENT AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS POSITIONED OVER THE LLCC ALL WHILE MODERATE (15-
25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO ACT UPON THE SYSTEM.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, HOWEVER, IS STARTING TO SHOW THE LOW
IS BEGINNING TO FILL WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001
MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, WHICH IS ALLOWING
THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME TROPICAL IN NATURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.5S
167.7W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.8S 170.4W, APPROXIMATELY 456 NM SOUTH
OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED, ALBEIT PARTIALLY EXPOSED, LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND
BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 230219Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A
COMPACT CIRCULATION WITH A SMALL AREA OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION TO
THE NORTHEAST. A 222309Z OSCAT PASS SHOWS A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WIND
FIELD WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POOR ENVIRONMENT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW IS POSITIONED VERY CLOSE TO THE LLCC WHILE HIGH (20-30 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO HAMPER THE SYSTEM. CYCLONE PHASE
SPACE DIAGRAMS INDICATE A BORDERLINE SYMMETRIC WARM/COLD CORE SYSTEM
WHILE AMSU RADIAL/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE ONLY VERY WEAK
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1001 MB. THE DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE A HYBRID SYSTEM AT THIS
POINT IN TIME AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.