Texas Winter 2013-2014

[gto67]

Thanks South Texas Storm for the model data link. This forum is great and all of you are helping me learn more about the weather. Thanks

[mmbrown10]

Now let me get this correct if the low moves more to north how would that moisten up the already extremely dry air. I thought if low moves more southward we (in north Texas) get more snow usually?

[TheProfessor]

Now let me get this correct if the low moves more to north how would that moisten up the already extremely dry air. I thought if low moves more southward we (in north Texas) get more snow usually?

Well in terms of snow the main reason that is, is because it lowers are temperatures. but from what I understand is the further south it goes the dryer it is for us. though if it goes too far north it will make are temperatures warmer.

[ravyrn]

Just some data from 18Z GFS for AUS:

Field Level Units, 2m Temp, 2m Dew Point, Precipitation, 850mb Temp
+ 54. 1.6 -8.9 0.68 0.3
+ 57. 0.3 -9.9 0.36 -1.1
+ 60. -0.8 -8.3 0.36 -0.8
+ 63. -1.4 -7.9 0.11 -0.4
+ 66. -1.8 -7.3 0.34 -0.7
+ 69. -1.8 -6.3 0.36 0.4

Not counting the first .68 since occurs before the column cools to freezing, but that's around 1.5MM which is roughly .06"? Not very wet, but it's better than nothing.

[Ntxw]

Now let me get this correct if the low moves more to north how would that moisten up the already extremely dry air. I thought if low moves more southward we (in north Texas) get more snow usually?

Well in terms of snow the main reason that is, is because it lowers are temperatures. but from what I understand is the further south it goes the dryer it is for us. though if it goes too far north it will make are temperatures warmer.

It's not an easy black or white answer. When you are talking about low going north you are talking about the surface low, that's the low level moisture transport. In terms of 5h low stronger vorticity generates better "lift" to ring more out of whatever moisture there is. Remember, precipitation occurs because warm(er) air is lifted. We need a stronger 5h low to help drag the surface low and moisture north for all of Texas, right now the guidance shreds the low and comes out very weak.

[mmbrown10]

Thank you ntxw and theprofessor, I guess I was just confused by that part while looking At the models. Do believe if it does warm up and bring More moisture it would still be cold enough to support snow.

[Ntxw]

Thank you ntxw and theprofessor, I guess I was just confused by that part while looking At the models. Do believe if it does warm up and bring More moisture it would still be cold enough to support snow.

Warming up isn't the problem, it's been mild for some days. The problem is the flow NW flow and W/SW flow doesn't work we need SE flow which opens the gulf and that's been absent for quite some time. Dewpoints have been low for many of us for weeks.

[TheProfessor]

Thank you ntxw and theprofessor, I guess I was just confused by that part while looking At the models. Do believe if it does warm up and bring More moisture it would still be cold enough to support snow.

Warming up isn't the problem, it's been mild for some days. The problem is the flow NW flow and W/SW flow doesn't work we need SE flow which opens the gulf and that's been absent for quite some time. Dewpoints have been low for many of us for weeks.

Are best bet would probably be for the low to position itself to the north-northeast of Austin so it could bring in moisture from the Gulf.

[Wntrwthrguy]

I'm not exactly sure of the criteria that must be met, but what are the chances a winter weather advisory/winter storm watch is issued for the Austin area? I know future model runs must be looked at to ensure there is at least still a chance.

[mmbrown10]

Well I'm crossing my fingers here in forth worth!!!

[South Texas Storms]

I'm eagerly awaiting tonight's 0z model runs. I hope they are colder and wetter for all of us!

[TheProfessor]

Well I'm crossing my fingers here in forth worth!!!

Same here for both comments.

[JDawg512]

Alright then. The TV news stations here in Austin are forecasting snow. I'm getting pretty excited about it now that I'm seeing that.

[Wntrwthrguy]

:ggreen: Alright then. The TV news stations here in Austin are forecasting snow. I'm getting pretty excited about it now that I'm seeing that.

I saw that as well. Waiting till it starts to fall before getting excited. Been burned way too much over the years to get too excited yet.

[wxman57]

Lucy holds the football and looks toward Charlie Brown, grinning slyly...

[Ntxw]

That's just cruel . Better kick it before she has a chance.

NAM is running, make it or break it for press conference.

[srainhoutx]

I'm not exactly sure of the criteria that must be met, but what are the chances a winter weather advisory/winter storm watch is issued for the Austin area? I know future model runs must be looked at to ensure there is at least still a chance.

This is the criteria for EWX:

Winter Weather Advisory - A Winter Weather Advisory should be issued if light freezing rain, freezing drizzle, sleet, or snow, or any combination is occurring or forecast within 18 hours. Most roadways remain open due to light nature of the precipitation and/or warm ground conditions. Minor impacts are expected such as slick bridges/overpasses or light accumulations on grassy surfaces. Since even very light freezing precipitation can cause travel problems, a Winter Weather Advisory is nearly always appropriate when freezing or frozen precipitation is reported or is expected. Reports of snow flurries can typically be handled with Nowcasts, graphicasts, and Special Weather Statements.

[Texas Snowman]

Lucy holds the football and looks toward Charlie Brown, grinning slyly...

LOL! I knew it! Wxman57 has an evil twin sister named Lucy!

[Wntrwthrguy]

I'm not exactly sure of the criteria that must be met, but what are the chances a winter weather advisory/winter storm watch is issued for the Austin area? I know future model runs must be looked at to ensure there is at least still a chance.

This is the criteria for EWX:

Winter Weather Advisory - A Winter Weather Advisory should be issued if light freezing rain, freezing drizzle, sleet, or snow, or any combination is occurring or forecast within 18 hours. Most roadways remain open due to light nature of the precipitation and/or warm ground conditions. Minor impacts are expected such as slick bridges/overpasses or light accumulations on grassy surfaces. Since even very light freezing precipitation can cause travel problems, a Winter Weather Advisory is nearly always appropriate when freezing or frozen precipitation is reported or is expected. Reports of snow flurries can typically be handled with Nowcasts, graphicasts, and Special Weather Statements.

Thank you! Sounds like something that MIGHT be needed if forecasts don't change.

[Ntxw]

0z NAM looks pretty good for the Edwards Plateau, hill country, Austin, and even San Antonio to see a mix of wintry precipitation including light snow and towards Victoria, and parts of SE TX. The edward's plateau is the winner with up to 3 inches in some spots. Much of South TX has sleet as well.