Texas Winter 2013-2014

[South Texas Storms]

Yeah tonight's 0z NAM looks good across much of central Texas. The 21z SREF also trended wetter across central Texas.

[HouTXmetro]

Can you post a graphic?

[Rgv20]

Looking at the 0zNAM Meteogram it keeps my area in the low 30s all day Friday and by the looks of the Forecast Skew T it looks like Sleet is a real possibility and if temperatures drop below freezing Freezing Rain will be a threat. GFS and ECMWF are much warmer for my area with high temperatures eventually reaching the low 40s with lows Friday morning right around 34-35. Interesting days ahead!

[stormlover2013]

Guys remember it's the nam lol, one model u don't trust. Let's see what the gfs says tonight

[Ntxw]

Here's the NAM.



GFS is kind of similar, mostly Edwards Plateau/Permian basin/Big country ordeal in terms of measurable snow. Does not include sleet and or freezing rain. Both seem to like Midland-Big Spring-San Angelo<-hello natlib-Brownwood areas for snow.

[orangeblood]

GFS does have a little more areal coverage of precip compared to past runs, seems to keep more of the upper level energy intact. A little colder as well with sleet extending down I-10 corridor from San Antonio into Houston Metro. Going to be a lot of Virga with this system, especially the further north and east you are

[HouTXmetro]

Why is the Heavier stuff north and west? I though the moisture was suppose stream in from the Gulf?

[South Texas Storms]

I think the 0z NAM is showing up to 2-3 inches of sleet across Austin and San Antonio on it's snow forecast map from WxBell.

[orangeblood]

Why is the Heavier stuff north and west? I though the moisture was suppose stream in from in for Gulf?

Dry Air, dew points are approaching single digits in southeast Texas as the bulk of the precip is moving that direction

[gboudx]

:ggreen: Alright then. The TV news stations here in Austin are forecasting snow. I'm getting pretty excited about it now that I'm seeing that.

Well looks like you got the kiss of death. It's like Fight Club; the first rule about forecasted snow in Texas is, you don't talk about forecasted snow in Texas.

[Ntxw]

I think the 0z NAM is showing up to 2-3 inches of sleet across Austin and San Antonio on it's snow forecast map from WxBell.

Probably is, based on the ice storm earlier in the season wxbell maps dont seperate snow vs sleet all mixed in it seems and sleet tends to overdo amount reflection on snow maps.

Wasn't there a similar storm/system like this last year just before New Years? I remember Austin was slated to get a good event but it turned out to be San Angelo and Midland.

[South Texas Storms]

I think the 0z NAM is showing up to 2-3 inches of sleet across Austin and San Antonio on it's snow forecast map from WxBell.

Probably is, based on the ice storm earlier in the season wxbell maps dont seperate snow vs sleet all mixed in it seems and sleet tends to overdo amount reflection on snow maps.

Yeah, but the main thing I'm taking from tonight's 0z runs so far is the wetter trend, with the NAM, GFS, and SREF all showing slightly more QPF across central Texas.

Next up is the CMC, UKMET, and Euro.

[Ntxw]

Fast forward a little...we've already had 4 big ones, a decade's worth, how about another? Sure why not.



Yes, I do realize it is La La Land GFS but you have to consider it originates from Siberia and crosses over to Alaska before truncation via the well seen Aleutian ridge coming (thanks -EPO dive) early next week. Given that most big high's this year have panned out (even when models don't show it they still pan out shockingly) what's another in the books?

[Rgv20]

0zGFS Ice Pellets accumulations thru Friday Evening..





0zNAM Ice Pellets accumulations thru Friday Evening..

[natlib]

Here's the NAM.



GFS is kind of similar, mostly Edwards Plateau/Permian basin/Big country ordeal in terms of measurable snow. Does not include sleet and or freezing rain. Both seem to like Midland-Big Spring-San Angelo<-hello natlib-Brownwood areas for snow.

I'm liking the trend....but it is mighty dry here.....will have to really change quickly

[Brent]

wxman57 can I get a meteogram for KANB now? Clearly that run of the 60s the other day was trash

[wxman57]

wxman57 can I get a meteogram for KANB now? Clearly that run of the 60s the other day was trash

Yes, it looks colder now. Not a trace of precip indicated:

[stormlover2013]

What did the cmc And euro show?

[TrekkerCC]

What did the cmc And euro show?

I don't have access to the euro 00z precipitation graphics, but the CMC 00z run shows a developing coastal trough and precipitation occurs in central and southeastern parts of Texas. This precipitation includes a wintry mix. The 00z run CMC shows no precipitation for North Texas.

[weatherdude1108]

"MOST AREAS COULD SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW"


"Special Weather Statement in effect

WINTER PRECIPITATION AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS BEHIND IT WILL SURGE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY ON THURSDAY BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. AS THE AIR CONTINUES TO COOL

WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP. INITIALLY SOME SLEET WILL MIX WITH THE RAIN. AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING

A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL START IN THE HILL COUNTRY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL END FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. CURRENT PROJECTIONS SHOW ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. HOWEVER

SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM DEL RIO TO SAN ANTONIO TO SCHULENBURG. NORTH OF THIS LINE

MOST AREAS COULD SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW

WITH UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF SNOW IN THE HILL COUNTRY. THE BEST TIME FOR ACCUMULATING WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BE BETWEEN 6 PM THURSDAY AND 6 AM FRIDAY. THIS MAY IMPACT THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTES N THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO AREAS. CHECK THE FORECAST FREQUENTLY PRIOR TO AND DURING THIS POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE ATMOSPHERE COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE FORECAST."