Texas Winter 2013-2014

[dhweather]

A coworker and I have taken wxman57's meteogram spreadsheets and made them a little more user friendly.

New features include:

Automatically puts the city name on the meteogram graph
Automatically changes dates for the model run
One click to generate the whole thing, no other activity required


Instructions for use:

1) You still have to go to the NOAA site in wxman57's instructions and follow those steps to get the data.
2) Then you copy all of the text output (highlight all of it , from GFS at the top of the text output to the end of the 192 hour data) and right click, select copy.
3) Open the spreadsheet, it will ask you to enable macros, select yes.
4) Select the yellow GFS Meteogram Data tab and then simply click on the button #2 "click here" (left click).


Then the magic happens, the spreadsheet does all the work, and the graph appears before your eyes. I've tested this for numerous cities throughout the US, and everything appears to be correct. If you are up to giving it a shot, here is where you can download it:

0-192 hours

http://www.heathweather.com/GFSv2.xlsm

192-384 hours

http://www.heathweather.com/GFS_Extendedv2.xlsm


Please let me know if you have trouble and we will try to help resolve it for you.

[ndale]

wow, winter weather fun again, hopefully we get snow this time, hell i hope we get any kind of wintry precip. how does it look for the New Braunfels- Schertz area?

You are in the area the nws is saying may possibly have a dusting to 1//4 of snow accumlation.

[Wntrwthrguy]

Any idea on accumulation forecast for the Round Rock, Hutto area?

[Portastorm]

Hey dhweather, thanks so much for doing that! It'll be a real nice resource for the Storm2K members.

[Portastorm]

Any idea on accumulation forecast for the Round Rock, Hutto area?

Based on the current forecast? A dusting (of snow) ... maybe a quarter of an inch. Again, based on CURRENT thinking. That could definitely change in the next 24 hours.

[ndale]

Any idea on accumulation forecast for the Round Rock, Hutto area?

NWS says possible dusting to 1/4 inch.

[dhweather]

Here's meteograms from the 6Z GFS for Mesquite

[orangeblood]

wow, winter weather fun again, hopefully we get snow this time, hell i hope we get any kind of wintry precip. how does it look for the New Braunfels- Schertz area?

Still a lot of discrepancy among the models regarding precip amounts, the cold air appears like it will be in place but not sure about amounts. At this point, I'd go with 0.50 - 1.0 inch of snow in between Austin and San Antonio but still a lot of uncertainty.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[dhweather]

Meteogram for Austin 6Z GFS

[dhweather]

:uarrow:

Hey dhweather, thanks so much for doing that! It'll be a real nice resource for the Storm2K members.

Glad to help.

If I can find somewhere that I can simply submit an identifier, such as KDFW, and the parameters I want - temp and precip - and get the model data that way, then we could make it really simple and it collect the model data for you too. The NOAA ARL site has that human verification thing so we can't automate that part.

[dhweather]

San Antonio 6Z GFS

[orangeblood]

For those up near the DFW area, Short Range ensembles have been trending "wetter" with each run - are now showing around an inch of snow by Friday morning.

[Big O]

12z GFS shows mainly ice event for central and southeast Texas.

[gboudx]

I'm not taking my kicking shoes out of the closet yet.

[Portastorm]

12z GFS shows mainly ice event for central and southeast Texas.

Very, very complex set up. This is going to be one tough forecast. Obviously P-types will impact not only QPF amounts but the effect on communities. Amounts still look light though per the GFS, at least for the Austin area.

[orangeblood]

Unreal spread among the GFS and NAM....for example, the GFS for Austin is showing .10 inch of precip while temps are below freezing while the NAM has .57 inch

[WeatherDuck]

Unreal spread among the GFS and NAM....for example, the GFS for Austin is showing .10 inch of precip while temps are below freezing while the NAM has .57 inch

I hope it is not in the form of freezing rain.

[Portastorm]

Unreal spread among the GFS and NAM....for example, the GFS for Austin is showing .10 inch of precip while temps are below freezing while the NAM has .57 inch

Yeah, I'm quite serious about this when I say that I haven't seen such a complex winter weather set up in years. Granted, forecasting winter weather in Texas is never easy ... but usually we have a little simpler set up with an upper level low inbound from the west or a coastal trough or both. Often that upper level energy will shear out as it crosses the state and ends up helping form a surface low off the Texas coast. Sometimes the ULLs hold their identity and create havoc underneath them. But THIS set up is not certain for either the upper level energy or the coastal trough. Some model runs show it, some are not showing it clearly.

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we here in Austin got freezing drizzle and sleet ... or an inch of snow ... or something in between. Heck, we could even end up with just a very small amount of freezing precip with little to no impact.

For weather fans, you gotta love it. It's a chance for all of us to learn some things as this one unfolds.

[Tireman4]

Unreal spread among the GFS and NAM....for example, the GFS for Austin is showing .10 inch of precip while temps are below freezing while the NAM has .57 inch

Yeah, I'm quite serious about this when I say that I haven't seen such a complex winter weather set up in years. Granted, forecasting winter weather in Texas is never easy ... but usually we have a little simpler set up with an upper level low inbound from the west or a coastal trough or both. Often that upper level energy will shear out as it crosses the state and ends up helping form a surface low off the Texas coast. Sometimes the ULLs hold their identity and create havoc underneath them. But THIS set up is not certain for either the upper level energy or the coastal trough. Some model runs show it, some are not showing it clearly.

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we here in Austin got freezing drizzle and sleet ... or an inch of snow ... or something in between. Heck, we could even end up with just a very small amount of freezing precip with little to no impact.

For weather fans, you gotta love it. It's a chance for all of us to learn some things as this one unfolds.

It's got something for everyone!!

[Stormcenter]

Graphics please and thanks!

12z GFS shows mainly ice event for central and southeast Texas.