Texas Winter 2013-2014

[TeamPlayersBlue]

12zECMWF Ensemble Means shows almost an inch of Snow for Austin/Mabry...Hope you get something Porta!

What does it show for the Houston area?

Checking the various station plots from the ECMWF Ensemble Means it shows 0.8 to almost 1''.

This could be sleet as well though huh?

[Portastorm]

Looking to next week, the GFS shows a 1048+ mb high entering Montana/South Dakota @ hr 132. The 850mb 0C line is off the coast by hr 156 but it looks like a dry cold on the 18z GFS. Still plenty of time for things to change on that.

Seen the 12z Euro or CMC? That might cheer you up a bit. Hint: it is cold but NOT dry.

[dhweather]

18Z meteograms for DFW - cold and dry






Hmmm, I just noticed a bug in the new and improved meteogram spreadsheet for 192+ - it's not putting the dates in correctly. We will get that fixed.

[TheProfessor]

Friday looks like a terrible day for me! I loathe cold and sunny weather!

[TheProfessor]

I just now looked at the SERF and it has been trending a lot wetter for the DFW metroplex. perhaps this is why flurries are now in are forecast.

[Rgv20]

A strong Arctic front will sweep through the Rio Grande Valley and Deep South Texas Thursday afternoon. The front will usher in a big change with cold north winds and quickly dropping temperatures. Widespread precipitation will develop Thursday night and Friday as an upper disturbance approaches then combines with a developing coastal trough. There is a fair chance a wintry mix of rain, snow, and sleet developing over the northern and western Ranch Lands, with the greatest chances mainly west of a Falfurrias to Rio Grande City line. With temperatures remaining above freezing, no significant accumulations are expected. Residents are urged to monitor the latest forecasts and statements from the National Weather Service. -Campbell/Billings-

[Ntxw]

This is too funny, a few days ago models had no big high after the current one and the long range (which GFS is still on with). And now there's a 1048-1050+ coming early next week lol. I bet it's that warm pool doing it's dirty work. Never seen a year with so many big ones, maybe it will all come tumbling down and an epic one will finish out winter!

[Ntxw]

Here's proof to the -EPO as the king of cold. Western and NW Canada is and has been 20-40F above normal. Yet Texas is about to see a cold wave some 15-20F below normal, and another one early next week similar in nature if not a little colder while Western Canada remains 20F+ from normal.

[gpsnowman]

Hey Ntwx, have precip chances gone up any at all for DFW?

[gboudx]

FWIW, Steve McCauley doesn't think DFW will get much of anything, including flurries.

[Ntxw]

Hey Ntwx, have precip chances gone up any at all for DFW?

I don't think so. For the most part this is an I-10 and central Texas affair not a Red River valley north TX/Oklahoma ordeal. The high is moving backwards (from the NE) and centered over our region thus no moisture will likely make it. Our game is later next week when the PNA is negative, that's when the big storms will start kicking out and we see the usual set up for the southern plains as whole for a dynamic system.

[jerryh421]

When do the new models come out??

[Ntxw]

When do the new models come out??

The 0z NAM is out and it has The Austin area receiving most of the snow/sleet, up to 2+ inches. Williamson county looks good with maybe a bit more of snow. SE Texas the 850 line lags the surface freeze line as precip moves out so probably up to an inch mixture of sleet and freezing rain.

[Wntrwthrguy]

Any idea on when the frozen precip will begin in Williamson county around round rock/hutto? I see different hour by hour forecasts predicting different times the sleet/snow is going to start.

[stormlover2013]

Pretty strong line of moisture early Friday morning in se tx we shall see if it pans out!!

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: Any idea on when the frozen precip will begin in Williamson county around round rock/hutto? I see different hour by hour forecasts predicting different times the sleet/snow is going to start.

It has the band at it's peak around between 18z and 21z so anytime between noon and 3pm tomorrow. It's highly dependent on banding features so it's not something we can say it will start at x time. Will have to follow radar trends.

[South Texas Storms]

Here is my forecast precipitation types for this event. This is the first time I've made a map like this. We'll see how I do!

And here's my latest weather article with more of my ideas on this event!
http://www.examiner.com/article/frozen-precipitation-possible-thursday-night-through-friday



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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[srainhoutx]

The 21Z SREF ensemble mean continues to advertise a prolonged light freezing rain/sleet event that finally begins to wind down Friday night/early Saturday morning. The 00Z NAM suggests a tab bit more moisture that comes to an end in SE Texas Friday afternoon/evening. Both of these shorter range meso models are suggesting a Coastal trough/low near Brownsville/Corpus Christi. Also of note, CLL will do a special sounding (ballon launch) 00Z tomorrow and possibly one at 06Z to assist NWS Houston/Galveston.

[Ntxw]

Pretty strong line of moisture early Friday morning in se tx we shall see if it pans out!!

Houston will be an interesting case. Temperature profiles here are tricky as the cold is not as deep as Austin (roads there should be a mess since they will fall below the magical 27-29 threshold that usually sticks to main roads). Stuff will fall and likely bridges and overpasses in Houston will become a wrecking ball (30-32 range) assuming the model is correct. Of course in this part of the world just the idea of something falling is plenty enough for jams . I wonder if the schools will close as a precaution?

[Portastorm]

:uarrow: Any idea on when the frozen precip will begin in Williamson county around round rock/hutto? I see different hour by hour forecasts predicting different times the sleet/snow is going to start.

It has the band at it's peak around between 18z and 21z so anytime between noon and 3pm tomorrow. It's highly dependent on banding features so it's not something we can say it will start at x time. Will have to follow radar trends.

If that's the case then I'm afraid much of that precip will be liquid and falling onto ground surfaces above freezing. Unless the models have the temps way off, the general AUS metro area won't cool to 32 or below until 5-6 p.m.