Texas Winter 2013-2014

[wxman57]

I leave Texas for a couple of days in winter and see what happens? Hopefully I can make it back to Houston by late tomorrow afternoon and stop all this winter weather nonsense.

[TheProfessor]

NWS Fort worth is now saying that a lot of the metroplex could receive a dusting of snow!

[BigB0882]

Thank goodness you don't get into Baton Rouge until 9am tomorrow. Maybe the snow will get here quickly enough even if it is only 10 flakes.

What are the odds of school cancellations in Baton Rouge and surrounding areas? I know our QPF is low but we are under a winter weather advisory, after all.

[Texas Snowman]

I leave Texas for a couple of days in winter and see what happens? Hopefully I can make it back to Houston by late tomorrow afternoon and stop all this winter weather nonsense.

Stay warm, stay safe...and stay out of Texas until spring!!!

[Ntxw]

I leave Texas for a couple of days in winter and see what happens? Hopefully I can make it back to Houston by late tomorrow afternoon and stop all this winter weather nonsense.

Us cold mongers are relentless! Take a vacation stay a little longer . We stole your weather machine in your absence and cranked it to Ice Ice baby!

Temps will be important to watch. Sleet is havoc on roads, so is freezing rain but sleet seems to be the worst. Snow is melt-able due to friction, the 27-29 is the magic range where even the main roads start to stick. North side of I-10 from Austin to Huntsville and Conroe may get there, not to say it won't be a mess elsewhere.

[wxman57]

Thank goodness you don't get into Baton Rouge until 9am tomorrow. Maybe the snow will get here quickly enough even if it is only 10 flakes.

What are the odds of school cancellations in Baton Rouge and surrounding areas? I know our QPF is low but we are under a winter weather advisory, after all.

Moisture will be extremely limited across SE LA, so chances of anything significant are low. If any precip does develop (somehow) it may not reach the ground. All you will get is some cold temps, most likely.

[srainhoutx]

The 06Z GFS trended a bit `wetter` and each of the successive runs of the SREF/HRRR/ WRF/NAM continue to increase precipitation and lift. The Arctic front is moving quickly across Texas and should be along the Coast near mid day. It is a little worrisome to see deeper convection firing just W of Baja that is feeding the mid/upper level moisture across Mexico into Texas. Radar returns are developing and should increase throughout the day across our Region.

[Wntrwthrguy]

After watching the hour by hour forecasts on some austin news stations this morning, it looks like the precip won't be widespread and a lot of areas will miss out on any precip all together. Are these hour by hour forecasts pretty accurate?

[Ntxw]

After watching the hour by hour forecasts on some austin news stations this morning, it looks like the precip won't be widespread and a lot of areas will miss out on any precip all together. Are these hour by hour forecasts pretty accurate?

We need to stop looking at these hour by hour forecast because it's really not a lot of use at this point. Look at radar trends and temperature profiles on a map, that's the best way to do it within 12 hours of an event.

[Wntrwthrguy]

Thanks NTXW! From looking at the early radar returns, most of the heavier activity looks like it is south of San Antonio. Will this generally be the way it stays?

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: Thanks NTXW! From looking at the early radar returns, most of the heavier activity looks like it is south of San Antonio. Will this generally be the way it stays?

For the next few hours it seems so. Later this morning or early afternoon precip should start to come out of the southern Trans-Pecos region and stream eastward into the Hill country and Austin. Start as a little rain then slowly transition to sleet most likely into the evening hours.

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW AFD from this morning

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014/
MANY OF US WILL SEE OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AS COLD
AIR PLUNGES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO STILL PROGGED TO DROP
INTO CENTRAL AND COASTAL TX BRINGING WINTER WX TO OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE LOOKED AT SOUNDINGS...SNOW
PLUMES...AND A HOST OF CONFLICTING GUIDANCE BUT THE BEST I CAN
BOIL IT DOWN IS THAT RAIN WILL BEGIN IN THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY.
AS TEMPS COOL THURSDAY AFTERNOON PRECIP WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND SWITCH TO A RAIN/SLEET MIX...AND THEN A
SLEET/SNOW MIX BY EARLY EVENING. UPPER SUPPORT MOVES ON EAST WITH
A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

SREF SNOW PLUMES LOOK SCARY...AND ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MUCH HIGHER
THAN ANYONE IS ADVERTISING.WHEN DISCARDING THE WRF ARW FROM THE
MODEL MIX...PLUME NUMBERS DROP TO MORE REASONABLE LEVELS SO IT
APPEARS TO BE A SNOWY OUTLIER. FOR EXAMPLE...AT HEARNE THE ALL
MODEL MEAN IS JUST A BIT BELOW 2 INCHES STORM TOTAL...BUT
REMOVING THE WRF ARW BRINGS TOTALS DOWN BELOW A TENTH. HAVE TAKEN
WHAT I HOPE IS A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE PUTTING THE
HALF INCH SNOW/SLEET LINE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO
GATESVILLE TO MARLIN TO HEARNE. I HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY TO ADD FALLS MILAM AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH TOTALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THAT LINE. OF
COURSE...THESE ARE AREAL AVERAGE SNOW AMOUNTS...AND LOCALLY
HIGHER/LOWER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. UNFORTUNATELY...THE TWO THINGS
MODELS SEEM TO STRUGGLE THE MOST WITH...SOUTHERN TIER WINTER
WEATHER AND CONVECTION...ARE WHAT PRODUCE OUR IMPACT EVENTS.

FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE COLD ACROSS THE AREA...THEN A MODERATE
WARM UP OCCURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY THE NEXT SURGE OF
ARCTIC WEATHER PUSHES INTO THE AREA AND EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE COLD
AGAIN WHILE WEDNESDAY STARTS ANOTHER WARM UP. GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A
THURSDAY/FRIDAY RAIN...AND HAVE BROAD BRUSHED LOW POPS ACROSS THE
EAST TO INDICATE THAT. 84

[BigB0882]

Thank goodness you don't get into Baton Rouge until 9am tomorrow. Maybe the snow will get here quickly enough even if it is only 10 flakes.

What are the odds of school cancellations in Baton Rouge and surrounding areas? I know our QPF is low but we are under a winter weather advisory, after all.

Moisture will be extremely limited across SE LA, so chances of anything significant are low. If any precip does develop (somehow) it may not reach the ground. All you will get is some cold temps, most likely.

Ok I will lower my forecast to 5 flakes and 2 drop of freezing rain. They can close school for that? Right? Hehe

[Ntxw]

NWS FTW AFD from this morning

A yes, the snowburst plume! I'm sure some of us in North Texas remember last January when we woke up to one with rumbles of thunder. Odds are still low of one up here, but they have happened before.

[Ntxw]

Ok I will lower my forecast to 5 flakes and 2 drop of freezing rain. They can close school for that? Right? Hehe

I'd take the mid road and say 8 flakes and 1 sleet pellet. Areas to your west will probably get something in west and south central LA. Baton rouge is pretty close though, fingers crossed.

[Tireman4]

I leave Texas for a couple of days in winter and see what happens? Hopefully I can make it back to Houston by late tomorrow afternoon and stop all this winter weather nonsense.

Ha. The ball is rolling. The wheels are in motion.

[gboudx]

I leave Texas for a couple of days in winter and see what happens? Hopefully I can make it back to Houston by late tomorrow afternoon and stop all this winter weather nonsense.

Ha. The ball is rolling. The wheels are in motion.

I think you mean, the ball is teed up and Porta Brown is ready to start running.

[Tireman4]

I leave Texas for a couple of days in winter and see what happens? Hopefully I can make it back to Houston by late tomorrow afternoon and stop all this winter weather nonsense.

Ha. The ball is rolling. The wheels are in motion.

I think you mean, the ball is teed up and Porta Brown is ready to start running.

Oh yeah...the great battle has begun....Drop Kick Me Jesus Through The Goalposts of Life...

[perk]

I leave Texas for a couple of days in winter and see what happens? Hopefully I can make it back to Houston by late tomorrow afternoon and stop all this winter weather nonsense.

Well that's what happens when you purchase an evil weather altering machine made in China.

[stormlover2013]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/WRF_12z/wrfloop.html

12 nam is rolling