Forecast #13... major rightward adjustment

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atlantic13fd.html


site is also been off and on the last 12 hours, so have patience if you cannot immediately access it

[Stormcenter]

Does this take into account that Isabel may be slowing her forward speed at the moment? If not, then I think you will have a problem with your forecast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Stephanie]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atlantic13fd.html


site is also been off and on the last 12 hours, so have patience if you cannot immediately access it

In other words, the chances of her being a fish is getting better? What has changed since your topic a few nights ago that a major hurricane for the US East coast was almost certain?

[Dean4Storms]

This guy changes with every model run and that is not good forecasting. There is no indication of a definite swing north. There are a couple models doing so but the model that did the best on Fabian (UKMET) is still taking Isabel dangerously close to FL. Best to stay with a wnw movement until at least she shows signs of this trough turning her which is very much in doubt, even by the NHC.

For every model wanting to swing her north and out to sea there are at least two taking her westward. Good thing the NHC doesn't swing so much we'd all doubt them as much.

[Derek Ortt]

Change with every model run? Try going with the consensus and not with the sole UKMET

Also, I have access to more models than anyone else here (or most anyone else as I use the ATCF file, which has all models, not the OSU ones). There are not 2 models taking it west for everyone taking it north.

And no, this does not indicate fish. This indicates an NC/north landfall as the final heading is 295

[Scott_inVA]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atlantic13fd.html


site is also been off and on the last 12 hours, so have patience if you cannot immediately access it

Interesting Derek. TPC 15Z coords are a tag south and slightly left (west).
Intensity clearly will diminish but I am far, far from sold on a right shift anytime soon.

Don't agree with the trof ideas but a good discussion, though.

Scott

[Stormcenter]

Scott does it look to you like she's slowed her forward speed somewhat?

[Dean4Storms]

Are you including the tropical models? What I'm getting at Derek is that you are jumping way out on a limb with expecting this turn at a time that even the NHC is holding back on giving credence too. Right now two scenario's are still very much a possibility with both being about even in chance. 1) Ridge builds back west and drives Isabel Westward.
2) Trough forecasted middle of next week pushes ridge out turning Isabel northward.

The remnant of Henri is out of the picture, the ridge is still moving along west on the north of Isabel. Her simple motion of a hair south of due west is a good indication of that, let alone multiple model forecasts of the ridge doing just that.

[Scott_inVA]

Scott does it look to you like she's slowed her forward speed somewhat?

Yes.

i'm in and out so can't stay glued today but last few frames look less than 10kts (TPC at 8...seems good) and virtually due west.

Scott

[Derecho]

This guy changes with every model run and that is not good forecasting.

I suspect "Good Forecasting" would only be a track pointing directly at Florida, run after run.

There is no indication of a definite swing north.

Only every single global model (and this continues as the 12Z runs roll in). That's not an indication? Then what would be?

For every model wanting to swing her north and out to sea there are at least two taking her westward.

There are NO OUT TO SEA MODELS. It's a turn North and into the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, or (now, 12Z GFS) New York City.

And I do hope you aren't clinging to the BAMM, LBAR, A98E as "westward" models. I hope you've figured out they're basically worthless at all times.

[Stephanie]

Change with every model run? Try going with the consensus and not with the sole UKMET

Also, I have access to more models than anyone else here (or most anyone else as I use the ATCF file, which has all models, not the OSU ones). There are not 2 models taking it west for everyone taking it north.

And no, this does not indicate fish. This indicates an NC/north landfall as the final heading is 295

Okay. I was just going by "the chances of it being a miss is improving" statement.

I don't think that you change with every model - you've noted many times in the forecasts that you "compromise" bewtween various solutions.

[Dean4Storms]

This guy changes with every model run and that is not good forecasting.

I suspect "Good Forecasting" would only be a track pointing directly at Florida, run after run.

Right now it's the only direction it's for sure taking or are you blind?

There is no indication of a definite swing north.

Only every single global model (and this continues as the 12Z runs roll in). That's not an indication? Then what would be?

Every single global model has changes it's tune from day to day, this is called inconsistancy and nothing but a turn toward the NW as NHC has done with it's official track is prudent at this time or your guessing!

For every model wanting to swing her north and out to sea there are at least two taking her westward.

There are NO OUT TO SEA MODELS. It's a turn North and into the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, or (now, 12Z GFS) New York City.

There has been models doing everything, not necessarily talking about the latest.

And I do hope you aren't clinging to the BAMM, LBAR, A98E as "westward" models. I hope you've figured out they're basically worthless at all times.

Worthless-No, you must take into account all the models. But not hanging my neck in them either.

It is still way too early to say which direction Isabel is headed besides her current wnw track. Only those who like to read the latest guesses by those who like to throw darts in the dark do the clinging your talking about. Anywhere from FL. to NC is still very much at risk of this storm landfalling on them.

[GalvestonDuck]

*tosses a dart at tracking map*

Ya never know.

[ameriwx2003]

Ahhhhhhhh we have a Cat fight or should I say a Cat 5 fight:):)

[zoeyann]

Hey Duck out of curiousity where did that dart land?LOL

[GalvestonDuck]

Omaha, Nebraska.

[zoeyann]

LOL Seems as good a guess as any at this point

[JCT777]

Derek - thanks for the update. And for the reasoning why you believe Isabel will weaken.

Duck - ya think we should let the poor folks in Omaha know about this, since they will need to make the necessary preparations for the very first hurricane to ever strike their area?! :o