Texas Winter 2013-2014

[stormlover2013]

Check met, GFS looks wetter. Precip still falling at 3pm for SE TX, Houston metro freezing just after midnight. 850 looks a wee bit closer to the coast, not enough for forecast change i think though.

Its enough to change it for the golden triangle area though

[orangeblood]

Ntxw's point is that with a tanking -EPO forecast, it's inevitable that we will get more cold air dumps south out of Canada. Models will probably be playing catch up. The main limiting factor to how cold we get will be the source region temps. If NW Canada gets loaded with cold Siberian air then look out because it's coming.

Thanks, very good interpretation. Thus I remind you all the GFS and group just before the 15th torched the country for this time period. Thus I also remind everyone Western Canada is currently 20-40F above normal, reference to post I made yesterday. The EPO isn't forecasted to tank, it IS tanking and forecasted to go even lower. It is the cold loading index and this current cold snap is all a part of it and so is the next early week. Models had NO anomalous highs a week ago and we have seen 1048s and 1050s pop up galore including the current one.

Also, you don't need it to be below normal in Canada for cold down here - even above normal for them is way below for us. With this pattern, these HP's build as they move south causing colder anomalies the further south you go especially for this time of year - not a lot of modification

[Red Raider fan]

How does it look for my area, is it getting worse for us too?

[Snowman67]

I'm flying back from Chicago to Houston (IAH) this evening. My flight is supposed to land around 9:45pm. Can anyone tell me what the temps are forecasted to be at that time at IAH? Hoping that there are no delays/cancellations due to icing that early in Houston (I really want to get back for any winter weather fun). If temps are scheduled to be below freezing by then, I might consider getting on an earlier flight if possible. Thanks for any input.

Jeff stated 3 am for the fun to start. He stated that on the KHOU Weatherboards. Now, maybe his thinking has changed, but that was as of now. Just keep tuned.

Thanks Tireman.

[Portastorm]

After watching the hour by hour forecasts on some austin news stations this morning, it looks like the precip won't be widespread and a lot of areas will miss out on any precip all together. Are these hour by hour forecasts pretty accurate?

Those forecasts are garbage and people shouldn't be fooled by them. Isentropic lift has already started in earnest here in Austin and that is ahead of schedule of almost ALL of the models.

Porta,

Where is the front?

850mb front is south of San Antonio and east to H-town. The much colder air, however, is lagging 3-6 hours behind this front.

[Wntrwthrguy]

12z GFS continues to show .25 to .50 inches of precip for Austin area ... this is much higher than what it showed yesterday and about the same as what the 6z run showed. I was worried about this ... I've heard some chatter here in town like "oh, the TV weatherman says it's going to miss us."

The hell it is. This situation appears to be growing more serious, especially if the P-type ends up being primarily freezing rain/sleet.

Is it trending that way to be more of a freezing rain/sleet event than a sleet/snow event around the austin area?

[Pearl River]

I know this is a board about Texas, but I wish the precip would spread more eastward to include Slidell, of course Pearl River and into coastal MS.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Any word if the front is coming in colder than expected? DFW folks?

Im going to mix in a nap this afternoon, going to be a long night. Prolly play lots of FIFA (PS3) and check my station in between games. In 2011 i think i had 2 hours sleep, thank goodness we didnt have to go to work that am.

[Portastorm]

12z GFS continues to show .25 to .50 inches of precip for Austin area ... this is much higher than what it showed yesterday and about the same as what the 6z run showed. I was worried about this ... I've heard some chatter here in town like "oh, the TV weatherman says it's going to miss us."

The hell it is. This situation appears to be growing more serious, especially if the P-type ends up being primarily freezing rain/sleet.

Is it trending that way to be more of a freezing rain/sleet event than a sleet/snow event around the austin area?

Based on what I'm seeing in the short-range models and comments from NWS ... yes, that is the trend.

[Red Raider fan]

So the Austin event is trending more freezing rain/sleet, but how much of it, the Austin area meterologists are down playing this event and are saying they are not going to get much from this event. my wife works in Austin.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

@144 on the GFS, High barrels straight into Houston but no precip. Still too early to forecast precip . 850 line is well off the coast

[gboudx]

Any word if the front is coming in colder than expected? DFW folks?

I don't know if faster than expected but we're at 32 here in Richardson.

[Portastorm]

So the Austin event is trending more freezing rain/sleet, but how bad will it be, my wife works in Austin.

"Bad" is a perjorative term, Red Raider fan.

My amateur guess is that we (Austin) see at least a quarter inch of a freezing rain/sleet mix, a sloppy mess. That'll be enough to close schools and a lot of businesses tomorrow. The "bad" stuff won't start until 5 p.m. probably. I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with closer to a half inch.

[Wntrwthrguy]

So the Austin event is trending more freezing rain/sleet, but how bad will it be, my wife works in Austin.

"Bad" is a perjorative term, Red Raider fan.

My amateur guess is that we (Austin) see at least a quarter inch of a freezing rain/sleet mix, a sloppy mess. That'll be enough to close schools and a lot of businesses tomorrow. The "bad" stuff won't start until 5 p.m. probably. I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with closer to a half inch.

Could this be similar to the 2011 event where it starts out as freezing rain/sleet and then changes over to snow?

[TexasStorm]

Any word if the front is coming in colder than expected? DFW folks?

Im going to mix in a nap this afternoon, going to be a long night. Prolly play lots of FIFA (PS3) and check my station in between games. In 2011 i think i had 2 hours sleep, thank goodness we didnt have to go to work that am.

Not really. Seems like the much colder air is lagging way behind though. We were not supposed to get out of the 30s today and we were 42 this morning when I got up around 7am.

[Portastorm]

Could this be similar to the 2011 event where it starts out as freezing rain/sleet and then changes over to snow?

Yes, I definitely see similarities although the precip amounts *may* be a bit lighter. That event had us between 3/4" and 1" of slop.

Meanwhile, EWX has issued a new AFD with some interesting thoughts on P-types:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1024 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014

.UPDATE...
REFRESHED TEMPERATURES/DEW POINT/WIND GRIDS TO ALIGN WITH RAPIDLY
CHANGING CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO ADJUSTED THE WEATHER
GRIDS FOR THE AFTERNOON TO MENTION LIGHT SLEET RATHER THAN
FREEZING RAIN FOR MOST OF THE ESCARPMENT COUNTIES AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. ALSO CHANGED WORDING FROM
RAIN TO LIGHT RAIN FOR THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
DRY AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS LIKELY EVAPORATING MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION. THIS EVAPORATION COULD ACCELERATE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SLEET AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIALLY LOWERS TEMPERATURES TO
AT OR BELOW FREEZING ABOVE THE SURFACE. THEREFORE SLEET LOOKS TO
BE THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE...WITH POCKETS OR MIXTURE OF FREEZING
RAIN/SNOW DEPENDING ON DEPTH OF THE FREEZING COLUMN OF AIR TONIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW/SLEET NORTH AND MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN/LIGHT SLEET-
SNOW SOUTHERN HALF TONIGHT. DIVIDING LINE WILL GENERALLY BE
I10/HY90 EAST/WEST SAN ANTONIO RESPECTIVELY. CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED IN THE
SHORT TERM.

[HouTXmetro]

Any word if the front is coming in colder than expected? DFW folks?

Im going to mix in a nap this afternoon, going to be a long night. Prolly play lots of FIFA (PS3) and check my station in between games. In 2011 i think i had 2 hours sleep, thank goodness we didnt have to go to work that am.

Not really. Seems like the much colder air is lagging way behind though. We were not supposed to get out of the 30s today and we were 42 this morning when I got up around 7am.

That's usually the case with these shallow air masses.

[gpsnowman]

Next week is starting to look interesting.

For us in North Texas or only south of us again?

Just a couple days ago the local tv forecasts had no mention of another arctic front for next week. Temps have trended downward since. Too early to make any assumptions regarding precip. But the models and posts by other members clearly show a colder trend. First half of Feb could be fun. And I usually talk about North Texas weather. Hope the moisture makes a big comeback for February.

[Red Raider fan]

Sorry Porta, meant to say the t.v. news and radio weather men. I apologize for that. It was my wife that said, nothing was being said about this event for Austin. Her office also haven't said anything to them as of yet.

[ndale]

Sorry Porta, meant to say the t.v. news and radio weather men. I apologize for that. It was my wife that said, nothing was being said about this event for Austin. Her office also haven't said anything to them as of yet.

Our office is taking it seriously, they started sending emails about inclement weather procedures yesterday and continues sending them today.