Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Ntxw]

Wow I hope you're right! So you think the convective bands will hit after midnight and give us a few inches then?

Lets hope so, that's the model consensus anyway.

[Portastorm]

I sure don't understand seeing the news that some of these ISDs in the general Austin area are notifying about a two-hour delay tomorrow. It's not going to be much better at 10 am than it is at 7 or 8 am tomorrow. We won't get above freezing by then. If they feel compelled to "make the call" the night before then they should plan for a longer time frame.

[South Texas Storms]

Wow I hope you're right! So you think the convective bands will hit after midnight and give us a few inches then?

Lets hope so, that's the model consensus anyway.

Thanks Ntxw. I'll keep yall updated!

[gboudx]

Here's an update from jeff. My apologies if already posted. You folks are tearing through to new pages pretty quickly.

Things starting to go downhill.

Freezing line has breached our northern counties with Caldwell now at 32 and CLL at 35. TXDOT is showing ice formation on roadways just outside our region mainly along and north of HWY 190 from Hearne to Round Rock. Appears another surge of cold/dry air is moving into the region and this should push much of the area to freezing in the midnight to 300am period.

A review of roadway versus air temperatures shows roadway bridges running about 3 degrees higher than air temperatures indicating critical air temperature for ice formation on bridges will be in the 29-30 degree range. This is currently fairly uniform across the entire region…but the difference is starting to close NW of Harris County where the air has been colder longer cooling those bridges.

See now reason to change any accumulation and P-type forms at this time.

Travel will be extremely hazardous after midnight tonight for most areas and all areas by 300am. Avoid travel unless it is an emergency.

Not sure if/when we will rise above freezing on Friday. Some of the models are attempting to hang on to sub-32F temperatures until the early to mid afternoon hours….much will depend on how quickly the precipitation ends. Still expect roadways to be a big problem for a good part of Friday.

Next update will be between 10-11pm.

[Portastorm]

Latest water vapor feed shows a solid and steady amount of Pacific moisture streaming into the state.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=east&channel=wv&coverage=conus&file=gif&imgoranim=8&anim_method=flash

[Wntrwthrguy]

Latest HRRR (RUC) -- 22z -- still looks good for you, buddy. Still showing 1-2 inches. Keep the faith![/quote]

How does it look for the Austin area? Is the best still to come?

[Portastorm]

How does it look for the Austin area? Is the best still to come?

Off and on again precip from now until 4-5 am. Still looking like accumulations of a wintry slop between 1/2 and 1 inch.

Meanwhile, APD is reporting 25 accidents in the last 30 minutes alone. Hopefully persons will get off the roads soon.

[cheezyWXguy]

What time do you think the changeover may occur? You think we could see a few good hours of moderate snow/sleet around midnight?

Probably within the next 3 hours to snow, well before the convective stuff hits. I think you guys in CLL will end up with 1-3", while some areas just to your east may end up 2-4.

Wow I hope you're right! So you think the convective bands will hit after midnight and give us a few inches then?

well I dont know if you've noticed, South Texas, but we have in fact been switching between rain and sleet here in College Station. But wow, 1-3" was a little above what I was expecting. If that's the case I dont think I'll be going to class tomorrow.

[JDawg512]

I agree Porta. I'm a bit peeved at ACC. Our instructor said that if things got bad they would release classes early. Well 10 min before class normally ends. We walk outside and it's sleeting. I had to have been sleeting for awhile cause my car was coated. Took well over an hour to get home. They underestimated this or at any rate they chose to stay on the conservative side of forecasting.

[somethingfunny]

well I dont know if you've noticed, South Texas, but we have in fact been switching between rain and sleet here in College Station. But wow, 1-3" was a little above what I was expecting. If that's the case I dont think I'll be going to class tomorrow.

You may want to check in on that rain, find a cold elevated surface like a chain link fence - it might actually be freezing rain rather than plain rain if it's mixing with sleet.

[Ntxw]

Further north, if we haven't noticed MOS guidance has DFW getting down to 15-16F tonight. That would be impressive, I'm not sure I believe it right now because winds and clouds are in place but dew points are definitely there. What model predicted that?

[downsouthman1]

Check this out everyone. SJT radar still shows a backbuilding convective band developing out west. 2 actually. It kinda looks like they're trying to merge into one. http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... oth=0&MR=1

Edit: Under this band, even with a 12 degree Dewpoint, it's snowing in Brady. Airport confirms that it's reaching the ground. How's that for upper level support?

[South Texas Storms]

I still haven't seen any sleet mixing with the rain here cheezy. I'm anxiously awaiting it though.

[Rgv20]

Its already down to 44 with drizzle and really gusty north winds..


A strong Arctic front will push its way across the Rio Grande Valley and Deep South Texas this evening. This front will usher in much colder temperatures and brisk northerly winds of 15 to 25 mph that will make temperatures feel much colder. A Wind Chill Advisory is in effect from midnight tonight through Friday for all of the Rio Grande Valley and Deep South Texas. Dangerous wind chills are expected after midnight, with wind chill values of 20 to 30. Widespread precipitation will develop tonight, in the form of rain before 3 am. After 3 am, there is a fair chance of a wintry mix of rain and sleet developing over the northern and western ranch lands, with the greatest chances mainly west of a Falfurrias to Rio Grande City line. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued Zapata, Jim Hogg, and Brooks counties from 3 am to noon Friday; some accumulation is possible on bridges and overpasses in the advisory area. If you are going to be outside dress in layers and wear a hat. Cover or bring inside cold sensitive vegetation and don't forget your outside pets!

[weatherdude1108]

This was in my backyard around 6pm tonight when it was sleeting.

[Annie Oakley]

The Austin NWS site shows 32 degrees and 'unknown precip'......what does that mean? The unknown precip part, that is....

[cheezyWXguy]

I still haven't seen any sleet mixing with the rain here cheezy. I'm anxiously awaiting it though.

Really? It changed completely over for a few minutes, theres a glaze on the railings and steps at my apartment right now. Its calmed down a bit for now though

[South Texas Storms]

I still haven't seen any sleet mixing with the rain here cheezy. I'm anxiously awaiting it though.

Really? It changed completely over for a few minutes, theres a glaze on the railings and steps at my apartment right now. Its calmed down a bit for now though

Where do you live? I live right across from the mall here.

[cheezyWXguy]

I still haven't seen any sleet mixing with the rain here cheezy. I'm anxiously awaiting it though.

Really? It changed completely over for a few minutes, theres a glaze on the railings and steps at my apartment right now. Its calmed down a bit for now though

Where do you live? I live right across from the mall here.

Im near where Holleman and Harvey Mitchell intersect. Im pretty surprised it can be so different across just a few miles. There hasn't been much for me yet though so you're not really missing out.

[Texas Snowman]

Further north, if we haven't noticed MOS guidance has DFW getting down to 15-16F tonight. That would be impressive, I'm not sure I believe it right now because winds and clouds are in place but dew points are definitely there. What model predicted that?

Certainly not the Wxman57 model. I'm pretty sure it said no more real cold or winter weather in Texas during the month of January!!