Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Macrocane]

I've posted a new update in the Central America cold surges thread with the observations from the Polar Vortex cold surge (January 6-January 10): http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&p=2365802#p2365802

I also have observations from yesterday, one of the coldest days in the last few years in northern Central America, these were the minimum temperatures:

Belize city, Belize 16.0°C (60.8°F) Coldest since March 4, 2013
Belmopan, Belice 12.2°C (54.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 8.0°C (46.4°F) Coldest since January 11, 2010
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala -2.4°C (27.7°F) Coldest since March 4, 2013
Zacapa, Guatemala 12.2°C (54.0°F) Coldest since March 4, 2013
San Salvador, El Salvador 13.4°C (56.1°F) Coldest since December 23, 2010
Las Pilas, El Salvador 2.2°C (36.0°F) Coldest in El Salvador since December 15, 2010. All time January coldest temperature on this location, old record 3.4°C (38.1°F) on January 23, 2009 and January 14, 1996.
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.7°C (69.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 9°C (48°F) Coldest since December 24, 2012
La Esperanza, Honduras 5°C (41°F) Coldest since February 11, 2013
Managua, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 16°C (61°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.9°C (62.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.9°C (40.8°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 20.2°C (68.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.4°C (70.5°F)
Baru volcano, Panama 16.3°C (61.3°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather will prevail today in PR and VI with only a few showers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
547 AM AST SUN JAN 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH TONIGHT.
THEN...A DEEP POLAR TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ERODING THE RIDGE ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS
THE RISK OF SHOWERS INCREASES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A
GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL AT
LEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY. IN FACT...
SATELLITE IMAGERY HAVE SHOWED ONLY A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND NO SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ISLANDS SINCE MIDNIGHT. THIS QUIET PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH BREAKS DOWN THE MID-UPPER RIDGE. MEANWHILE...FOR TODAY...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO
IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.

LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE POLAR TROUGH. IN ADDITION...THE WEAK FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUD BUILDUPS WITH BRIEF SHOWERS CONCENTRATING OVER INTERIOR AND WESTERN.
THE FORECAST SCENARIO FOR MID-LATE WEEK WILL RELATIVELY STABLE BUT THE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS 3-5 FT ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 74 87 73 / 10 0 10 10
STT 87 74 85 74 / 10 10 10 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
322 PM AST SUN JAN 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY EAST DURING THE WEEK AND WEAKEN
AS SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS PRESS THROUGH A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE IN A
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST RIDGE WEAKENED BY A CUT OFF LOW IN THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS LOW RECEDES TO THE EAST BUT RETURNS OVER
THE WEEKEND TO NEAR 22 NORTH 41 WEST. MID LEVELS CONTINUE VERY DRY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...RIDGING FROM A MODERATE TO STRONG HIGH OVER THE
EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE GREATER
ANTILLES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...GENERATING MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. BANDS OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MIGRATING LOWS AND FRONTS ARE SHUNTED AWAY TO THE
NORTH OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WHILE NO SHOWERS APPEARED YESTERDAY IN WESTERN
PUERTO RICO...SHOWERS APPEARED IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY OVER
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS APPEARED IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST INTERIOR
PUERTO RICO. VERY FEW SHOWERS WERE SEEN OVER THE SURROUNDING
WATERS OR EASTERN PUERTO RICO. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH 20/12Z AT
LOWER LEVELS. DRYING IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO
FROM THE EAST. BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IS
EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEY SHOULD DRY FIRST BY MID
AFTERNOON. BANDS OF MOISTURE WITH SHALLOW SHOWERS ARE THEN MOST
LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING IN SHALLOW BANDS OF MOISTURE AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE PLAYS A LESSER ROLE IN SUPPRESSION AND
SUBSIDENCE OF THE MID TO UPPER LAYERS. WINDS WITH A WEAK SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AIDED WARMING TO NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES IN THE SAN JUAN GREATER METROPOLITAN AREA YESTERDAY
AND TODAY...AND THIS SHOULD INTENSIFY ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. IT
SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
BECOME EAST NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 19/06Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN ROUGH...BUT AT LESS THAN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS TRADE WINDS
CONTINUE UNDER THE DISTANT INFLUENCE OF A MODERATE TO STRONG HIGH
THAT EXTENDS OUT OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 87 72 86 / 20 30 20 20
STT 77 85 76 83 / 20 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather in general will prevail in PR and VI with only a few isolated showers.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
458 AM AST MON JAN 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS WORK WEEK. A WEAK
RIDGE PATTERN WILL RETURN ACROSS THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS EXPECTED...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH A
FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S IN COASTAL AREAS WITH LIGHT TRADE WINDS.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL ERODE TODAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTH
OF THE AREA...RESULTING IN MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PATTERN WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA...LIMITING SOMEWHAT
THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...UNDER
THE PREVAILING WIND FLOW...PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS...FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO CANT BE RULED OUT EACH DAY WITH TUESDAY
AS THE DRIEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK. A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS
WILL THEN ROTATE AROUND DEEP POLAR TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND AND COMPLETELY ERODE THE RIDGE. THIS
WILL BRING MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 20/14Z MAINLY BETWEEN
10 AND 15 KTS. SHRA LIKELY FOR TJMZ BETWEEN 20/18Z AND
20/23Z..CAUSING MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS SEAS REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET AND WINDS OF UP TO 17 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL BUILD BETWEEN 7 AND 8 FEET THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IN NORTHWEST
SWELLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 75 88 75 / 10 10 10 20
STT 85 73 85 73 / 10 20 10 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
210 PM AST MON JAN 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MOST OF THE RAINFALL
OCCURRED OVER MARICAO...SAN GERMAN AND HORMIGUEROS. ANOTHER AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE MUNICIPALITIES OF VILLABA AND
JUANA DIAZ. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET OR
MOVE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS AND MOVE ON SHORE MAINLY AFFECTING THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS
WILL NOT GENERATE ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...LIMITING SOMEWHAT THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...UNDER THE PREVAILING WIND FLOW...PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS...FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO CANT BE RULED OUT EACH DAY WITH
TUESDAY AS THE DRIEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH 21/12Z BUT CONDS WILL
REMAIN VFR OVER TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR PSBL AT TKPK. MTN
OBSCURATIONS WILL INCREASE OVER PR AFT 21/04Z BUT CLEAR AFTER 21/18Z
EXCEPT WESTERN PR. AFT 21/16Z MVFR LIKELY OVER TJMZ TIL ARND 21/22Z.
LLVL WINDS E TO SE 5 TO 15 KT...BCMG WESTERLY BTWN 15-25 KFT AND
ABV. MAX WIND 55 KT BTWN 35-45 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
SEAS REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET AND WINDS OF UP TO 17 KNOTS. A SMALL NNW
SWELL WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE OUR LOCAL WATERS LATE THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
SWELL EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEAS
BUILDING UP TO 8 FEET IN NORTHWEST SWELLS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 75 88 75 / 10 10 10 20
STT 85 73 85 73 / 20 20 10 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
900 PM AST MON JAN 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHORTWAVE-TROUGH ACROSS THE SW ATLC WILL LIFT QUICKLY
TO THE NE TUE WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING OVR THE AREA TUE
NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRYING WILL OCCUR NEXT 24 HRS AS AN AREA OF LOWER
TPW EAST OF THE LEEWARDS MOVES OVR PR TOMORROW. THEN MID-LEVEL
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE WED-FRI UNDER SHORTWAVE-RIDGING ALOFT BUT
STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS WILL FAVOR CLOUD CLUSTERS AND VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS. DURING THE WEEKEND...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL PROMOTE SOME
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LIFTING TO 700 MB.

OVERALL...NOT AS DRY AS LAST TWO WEEKS WERE WITH TYPICAL WX FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. NOT TOO DRY AND NOT TOO WET. IN FACT...H5
AND H25 HEIGHTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE
1982-2012 MEDIAN FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
GENERALLY FM EAST AT 15 KTS OR LESS UP TO 15 KFT. WESTERLY ABV 15
KFT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS NEAR 15 KT AND SEAS BUILDING 4-6 FT TONIGHT
THROUGH THU. SEAS BUILD TO 8 FT FRI IN NW SWELLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 88 75 87 / 0 0 30 20
STT 73 85 73 85 / 10 0 20 10

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather will prevail today in PR and VI with only a few afternoon showers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
456 AM AST TUE JAN 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL RETURN ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS WEDNESDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS EXPECTED...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH ISOLATED TO
LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AS WELL AS PORTIONS
OF THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S IN COASTAL AREAS WITH LIGHT TRADE WINDS. WEAK RIDGE
PATTERN ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TODAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY...LIMITING THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...UNDER
THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...MORNING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS...FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN PUERTO RICO CANT BE RULED OUT TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
RIDGE ALOFT WILL THEN COMPLETELY ERODE DURING THE WEEKEND...BRING
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OVERALL...TYPICAL WEATHER FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PASSING SHRA ACROSS THE AREA.
EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER
21/14Z MAINLY BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS. SHRA POSSIBLE FOR TJBQ BETWEEN
20/19Z AND 20/23Z..BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS OF UP TO 16 KNOTS. NEXT SWELL
EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 7-8 FEET IN NORTHWEST SWELLS BY
FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 87 75 / 20 30 20 20
STT 83 73 83 73 / 20 20 10 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST TUE JAN 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO A PART LY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AND USVI THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THESE SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED.

WEAK RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY...LIMITING THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...MORNING
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS...FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO CANT BE RULED OUT TODAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. RIDGE ALOFT WILL THEN COMPLETELY ERODE
DURING THE WEEKEND...BRING MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SLIGHTLY MORE
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS OF UP TO 16 KNOTS. NEXT SWELL
EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 7-8 FEET IN NORTHWEST SWELLS BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 90 75 87 / 30 20 40 30
STT 73 84 73 83 / 50 20 40 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
945 PM AST TUE JAN 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT 48 HRS WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE-TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA FRI.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BONE DRY AIR MASS OVR PR THIS EVENING WITH 22/00Z
RAOB SHOWING 0.95 INCHES OF PW AND 19C DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT H85.
THINGS MOISTEN UP SOMEWHAT TOMORROW AS AN AREA OF HIGHER TPW EAST
OF THE LEEWARDS MOVES ACROSS. IT WILL ALSO BE VERY WARM WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES WELL ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR JAN. WITH THE RECORD HIGH BEING ONLY 87F DEGS A NEW
RECORD HIGH WILL BE ESTABLISHED. DRIER THU AND FRI UNDER STRONG
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS BUT COOLER UNDER A
MORE EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TIL 22/17Z WHEN VCSH AND
POSSIBLY SHRA COULD AFFECT TJBQ AND TJMZ. SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL
OCCUR AFT 22/16Z IN PUERTO RICO AND INCREASE THRU 22/20Z IN WESTERN
PUERTO RICO. WINDS E-ESE 10 TO 15 KNOTS BELOW 10 KFT BECMG SE ABOVE
THAT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS NEAR 15 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT BUILDING 6-8 FT THU
NIGHT IN NW SWELLS AND ENE WIND WAVES.

&&

CLIMATE...RECORD FOR JAN 22 IS ONLY 87F DEGS AT SJU. THIS WILL MORE
THAN LIKELY BE BROKEN DUE TO SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND VERY
WARM 925 MB TEMPS OF 20C ALMOST TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR JAN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 90 75 87 / 0 20 0 10
STT 73 84 73 83 / 20 20 10 10

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Mainly dry and sunny weather will prevail today in PR and VI with only a few isolated showers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 AM AST WED JAN 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING MODERATE WINDS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. UPPER LEVEL LOW ALSO ACROSS THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS AND BRIEFLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS MOVING IN AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INCREASING SLIGHTLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ACROSS NW PR SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW PR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OD PASSING SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE TOO MUCH. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE TOMORROW AND THEN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE AREA WITH PATCHES OF
MOISTURE...THIS WILL CAUSE SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS AND THE LOCAL WATERS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THAT OCCURS OVER
PUERTO RICO IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN AREAS OF SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS WESTERN PR. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD OBSERVE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FR CONDS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TIL 22/17Z WHEN VCSH AND
POSSIBLY SHRA COULD AFFECT TJBQ AND TJMZ. SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL
OCCUR AFT 22/16Z IN PUERTO RICO AND INCREASE THRU 22/20Z IN WESTERN
PUERTO RICO. WINDS E-ESE 10 TO 15 KNOTS BELOW 10 KFT BECMG SE ABOVE
THAT.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN SEAS STARTING
THURSDAY NIGHT IN NORTHWEST SWELLS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NECESSARY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 73 84 72 / 20 10 10 30
STT 85 74 85 75 / 20 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
249 PM AST WED JAN 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING MODERATE WINDS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. UPPER LEVEL LOW ALSO ACROSS THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER HOT WEATHER DAY ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW HAS PREVAILED
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS
OBSERVED. ONLY A PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFFECTED THE LOCAL
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES
DOMINATING THE LOCAL REGION.

THE SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE EASTERLY
TOMORROW...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. IN THE LONG
TERM...AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST
TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES. ISOLD SHRA OVER
LCL WATERS AFT 23/04Z WITH OCNL VCSH ARND TIST...TISX...TNCM...TKPK
AND SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS IN PR. LVL WINDS SE 5 TO 15 KT BCMG
EASTERLY AFT 23/06Z.

&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS
UP TO 16 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...THROUGH 230 PM AST...THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT THE
LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN HAS REACHED 90
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 87 SET IN 1998.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 87 72 89 / 10 10 30 30
STT 75 86 75 85 / 20 20 30 30

[tropicana]

UPDATE Wed Jan 22/14 715pmET Predominantly fair weather throughout the chain, but some low level clouds passed across the islands , especially overnight and today and did bring a few isolated and brief showers. For 24 hours ending at 8pm local time Wednesday, Grantley Adams Barbados saw 2mm, Hewannora St Lucia 3mm, Vigie St Lucia 4mm, Canefield Dominica 2mm, LeLamentin Martinique 4mm, LeRaizet Guadeloupe 9mm. The tail end of a cold front brought a hefty 29mm to Owen Roberts Airport Grand Cayman...and Hamilton in Bermuda also saw in excess of 25mm.

The temperature at San Juan on the north coast of PR reached an unseasonably hot 32.8C 91F, a new record for Jan 22. This was the 2nd time for the month the temp has reached this high (also on Jan 18) . Quite unusual, seeing than since records have been kept dating back to 1898, it has only been hotter than this twice during January ( 92F on Jan 11 1982 & Jan 16 1983) Additionally, this is only the 14th 90 degree January day on record - the last time was of course Jan 18 2014 and before that, Jan 21 1995 ( 32.8C 91F as well).

To the south, Piarco Int Airport in Trinidad soared to 32.4C ( 90.3F) ... you would have to go all the way back to November 18 2013 to find as hot a day, put another way, it was the hottest day in over 2 months at the airport. Contrast that to the 21.7C 71F high at Hamilton Bermuda and 21.8C 71F high at Nassau NW Bahamas. A band of low level stratocumulus clouds was passing overhead Trinidad tonight, will keep the temp up a bit at least the first part of the night. No showers were being detected on regional radar across the chain. Winds will remain brisk E'ly across the chain through Thursday, thanks to a strong 1036mb HIGH currently near 40N 25W in the Central North Atlantic.

-Justin-

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1040 PM AST WED JAN 22 2014

.UPDATE...SKIES BECAME MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ISLANDS
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH NO PRECIPITATION NOTED OVER
LAND. A FEW SHOWERS WERE HOWEVER NOTED MOVING WEST ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND IN THE MONA PASSAGE. FOR THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...PASSING SHOWERS MAY BRUSH PARTS OF THE EAST
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS...BUT OVERALL DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES
AND PREVAILING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS...WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE ISLANDS EACH DAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO
THE INHERITED FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES DURING NEXT 24
HOURS. VCSH POSSIBLE VCTY TIST...TISX...TNCM...TKPK DURING
OVERNIGHT HOURS. L/LVL WINDS SE 5 TO 15 KT BCMG EASTERLY AFT 23/06Z.


&&

.MARINE UPDATE...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUED AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND
LESS THAN 5 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN. FOR THIS REASON SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

CLIMATE UPDATE...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 91 DEGREES WAS SET
AT LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN...PUERTO
RICO TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 87 DEGREES SET BACK IN
1998...1995 AND 1942.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather will prevail today in PR and VI with only a few showers moving thru.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
546 AM AST THU JAN 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN
IN THAT GENERAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING MODERATE
WINDS OVER THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS WILL KEEP A FAIRLY STEADY PATTERN OF PASSING SHOWERS IN THE
TRADES WITH BRIEF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PR AS
WELL AS SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN PR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PASSING SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY REMAINED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE
EAST VERY EARLY IN THE MORNING...BRIEFLY AFFECTING AREAS
SURROUNDING THE USVI. THESE PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THE MORNING HOURS...BRIEFLY AFFECTING A FEW AREAS OF
EASTERN PR AS WELL AS THE USVI. SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING IN
TODAY MAY CAUSE A FEW LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SECTIONS OF WESTERN PR...NORTHERN SLOPES...AND EASTERN PR. BUT FOR
THE MOST PART...THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. MAINLY FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES OF
PR...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA...AND THE USVI.

THE GENERAL PATTERN SEEMS TO BE HOLDING STILL LIKE IT HAS BEEN FOR
THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
THE WIND FLOW OVER THE AREA AND AN UPPER RIDGE...BOTH OF WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE THE PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA. THIS MEANS THAT WHEN MOISTURE INCREASES...EXPECT PASSING
SHOWERS BRIEFLY AFFECTING THE WATERS...USVI...AND EASTERN PR...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS PR IN THE AFTERNOONS IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AT THAT TIME...ENHANCED BY SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFTING OR SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...THE SHOWERS THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY NOT CAUSE ANY FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES DURING NEXT 24
HOURS WITH VCSH POSSIBLE ARND TIST...TISX...AND TJSJ DURING MORNING
HOURS. BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AFT 23/16Z AT TJMZ
AND TJBQ IN SHRA. E WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA STARTING LATE TONIGHT. SOME OF
THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVER ESTIMATING THE WAVE HEIGHTS.
HOWEVER...SEAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS A
NORTHWEST SWELL INVADES THE LOCAL WATERS. BUOY 41046 TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA IS ALREADY REPORTING SWELL HEIGHTS OF
8 FEET. FOR THAT REASON WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
STARTING LATE TONIGHT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. AS FAR AS
TODAY GOES...SEAS WILL BE UP TO 5 FEET DURING THE DAY...INCREASING
UP TO 6 FEET TONIGHT AND UP TO 7 FEET LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 73 87 72 / 20 40 40 30
STT 85 74 85 74 / 20 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. A band of showers will move thru PR and VI tonight and early Friday bringing scattered showers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST THU JAN 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN A CREST ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PASS THROUGH AND THE RIDGE WILL
BUILD BACK OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE AREA FROM A HIGH IN
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY. A LOW DEEPENS...AS A
REFLECTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC DURING THE SAME PERIOD. THE MID LEVELS REMAIN
DRY OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. BANDS OF MOISTURE IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING ALTERNATING PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
CLOUDS WITH PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS MOVED QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA ON MODERATE
TRADE WINDS THIS MORNING. SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL FROM PONCE TO CABO ROJO DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A BAND OF
MOISTURE PASSED. EXTRAPOLATING FROM THE SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE
NEXT BAND IS EXPECTED TO PASS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT
AND ENTER PUERTO RICO EARLY IN THE MORNING ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN A LITTLE EARLIER IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD. ANOTHER BAND IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY. THIS ALTERNATING BANDING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO VARYING DEGREES IN
WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON...AND MORNING SHOWERS ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 3 TO 4 DEGREES
WARMER THAN MOS AND SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE SEASONAL NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS TJMZ THROUGH AT LEAST 23/23Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH AT LEAST 24/12Z. VCSH
EXPECTED OVER TIST...TISX...TNCM...TKPK..AND TJSJ FROM TIME TO TIME.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THE ARRIVAL OF SWELL FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 7 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO
EFFECT LATER TONIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
UNSTEADILY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 87 75 87 / 60 60 30 30
STT 76 84 75 84 / 50 50 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1019 PM AST THU JAN 23 2014

.UPDATE...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH RIDGE SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC CONTINUED TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS WHILE
MAINTAINING MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. LATEST TJSJ 24/00Z
UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE SOUNDING ALOFT
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW 800 MILLIBARS...AND PWAT
VALUE NEAR 1.25 INCHES. THE PREVAILING TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT INTERVALS OF SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME OF THE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS
OF THE ISLAND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. SOME SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL AS
THESE OCCASIONAL SURGES OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...
NO SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. FEW MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED SHORT
TERM FORECAST BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND PRESENT WEATHER
CONDITIONS. FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY...EXPECT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
TO AID IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few showers will move thru PR and VI today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
411 AM AST FRI JAN 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TODAY AS
SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS MOVE ACROSS THE TOP THEN STRENGTHEN MID
NEXT WEEK. TRADES EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL FALL OVR THE NEXT 36 HRS AS
SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS MOVE OVER TOP OF RIDGE AND WEAKENS IT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WEAKENING OF THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY. SOME
DRYING IS NOTED FOR SAT AND SUN BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE-
TROUGH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE-TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS MON
ENHANCING THE RISK OF SHOWERS. TRADES ALSO STRENGTHEN ON MON WITH
INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCING RISK OF SHOWERS IN WINDWARD
AREAS. IN SUMMARY...TODAY AND MONDAY LOOK LIKE THE TWO BEST DAYS
FOR ENHANCED RISK OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RETURN TO
MORE NORMAL LEVELS TODAY AS RIDGE WEAKENS.

UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE THEN ESTABLISHES TUE WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVR THE AREA MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. HOWEVER...FRESH
TRADE WINDS WILL KEEP THE RISK OF MAINLY NOCTURNAL LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER NORTHEAST PR.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION THESE MORNING. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE USVI
TERMINALS THROUGH 10Z...AND TJSJ...TJPS AND TJBQ THROUGH 13Z. LLVL
WINDS WILL REMAIN FM THE EAST AT 15-25 KT JUST ABOVE SFC TO 10K FT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 5-7 FT OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS IN NW SWELLS THROUGH
EARLY SUN. TRADES THEN STRENGTHEN MON WITH SEAS 5-7 FT IN DOMINANT
ENE WIND WAVES WITH A SMALL NW SWELL COMPONENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 84 74 / 40 10 30 20
STT 78 76 77 77 / 20 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
222 PM AST FRI JAN 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE LOCAL
REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS
WERE NOTED MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED
EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS WERE MOVING WEST AND WERE
STARTING TO AFFECT THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE SHOWERS ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. THEREFORE...CLOUDY SKIES
WITH SOME SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...ANOTHER AREA OF DRY AIR WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE LOCAL REGION NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. ONLY PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EVENT ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION IN THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...APPROACHING SHRA FROM THE EAST WILL CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDS FOR TIST/TISX THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING TO TJSJ LATER
ON. DEVELOPING SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY ALSO CAUSE MVFR CONDS FOR
TJMZ AND IN THE VICINITY OF TJBQ. CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE WITH THE
SHOWERS...CAUSING CEILINGS AT AROUND FL045 WITH TEMPO CIGS FL030 OR
SO. WIND TO REMAIN FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOYS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 6-7 FEET WITH PERIODS OF
AROUND 11 SECONDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION...EXCEPT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 84 74 82 / 10 30 20 20
STT 76 77 77 77 / 10 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few showers will move thru PR and VI today but for the most part good weather is expected.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
346 AM AST SAT JAN 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OVER THE NEXT SVRL DAYS
AS SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS MOVE OVER TOP OF IT. TRADES WILL
STRENGTHEN MON AND REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR IS MOVING OVER PR AND USVI AS OF RIGHT NOW
BUT A BATCH OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY OVER THE LEEWARDS AND SHOULD
MOVE OVER PR BY NOON BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS. IT DRIES OUT
QUICKLY TONIGHT THROUGH SUN. MODELS SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE-
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MON ENHANCING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WITH A GOOD RISK OF SHOWERS. STRENGTHENING TRADES WILL
ALSO AID ENHANCING PRECIPITATION. AFTER MON...MODELS SHOW A
PATTERN OF UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY
BUILDING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. OVERALL...EXPECT A DRYING
TREND TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TRADES WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN
AS BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH MIGRATES WWD TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT.
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL ALSO EXIT THE US MID ATLC COAST
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK FURTHER TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT
WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...A LINE OF WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE USVI TERMINALS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND AFFECT THE TJSJ BEFORE 11Z. AFTER
THIS A DRIER AIRMASS WILL OVER THE REGION GENERATING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS ARE MAINLY EAST AT 10
TO 15 KT JUST ABOVE SFC TO 10K FT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15-20 KT MOST OF THE WEEK. NNW SWELLS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY MON BUT STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS
WILL GENERATE CHOPPY SEAS BETWEEN 6-8 FT. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 75 82 75 / 30 20 20 20
STT 78 76 77 77 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

The dry season is here now.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
236 PM AST SAT JAN 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE LOCAL
REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDINESS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON...AS PATCHES OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS AFFECTED THE LOCAL
AREA. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE WAS MINIMAL...WITH ONLY
LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO
TIME. LATEST SATELITE AND RADAR IMAGES WERE SHOWING DRY AIR EAST
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WHICH WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION TONIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RUNNING BELOW 1.0 INCHES TODAY...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO UNTIL MONDAY...AS ANOTHER PATCH OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AFFECTS THE LOCAL REGION.

FOR MID WEEK...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND WILL PROMOTE
VERY TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS
INDICATED VERY DRY AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL REGION MY MID NEXT
WEEK...PROBABLY LASTING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION
IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. A LINE
OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL PR WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WESTWARD CAUSING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION TIL 25/23Z. -SHRA COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS TJMZ AND IN THE VICINITY OF TJBQ AFTER 25/18Z. WINDS
ARE MAINLY EAST AT AROUND 15 KT JUST ABOVE SFC TO 10K FT EXCEPT FOR
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOYS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 6-7 FEET WITH PERIODS OF
AROUND 11 TO 12 SECONDS SECONDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN
EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION...EXCEPT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 71 83 / 20 20 20 20
STT 74 84 74 84 / 20 20 20 20