Texas Winter 2013-2014

[TexasF6]

@Porta, what a brilliant diagnosis on the errant, inane stupidity that coursed thru Austin with this event. Not to name names, but the local ABC AM personage decided to totally blow off this event the morning of, as "not a big deal," "The roads are fine, will be warm," "more bluster, crapcrapcrap-footinmouth-shoeleathertoeat" totally angered me, as I watched him say all this in absolute horror, knowing what could happen with deteriorating conditions during a workday into the night???? Seen it before in Austin. He had not. His boss had??!!!! He had not. You don't go on TV with the power of such a platform and okey-doke the weather as if it is going to be a joke and not potentially life threatening. Thank you for making a great decision not to place more people and possibly CHILDREN at risk because "its not going to be a big deal." The wrecks all over the city showed Austin & surrounding areas that they are not more powerful than Old Man Winter! And the game remains afoot....

[Ntxw]

Ntxw

What's your thinking concerning what the latest gfs and cmc runs are showing regarding winter precip from south tx all along gulf coast? Our local office already has minimal chances of precip Monday and Tuesday.

I'm not sold on a good event for anyone yet if any. Orangeblood did lay it out well that the Baja low likely is the only catalyst for real moisture if it phases with the northern stream, but given the strength I believe the next cold snap will be colder(ensembles is colder than the op) and models losing on temps and depth of the last one my bet is a lot of dry cold for most of us for now.

We're shifting back into the blocking pattern we saw in early December but probably with more cold air around and models are still playing catch up. And as cold as this cold snap was the ridge has still not made it to Alaska. It's a result of the same PNA block in western Canada except for the low heights underneath (the storm that came through) pulling the trough back.

[ravyrn]

My friend in Lake Charles, LA... after rolling down her window.

[Ntxw]

Haven't forgotten about the warm pool either. Still there...3 months later deep into winter and is the blockiest in this region ever (recorded). We had questions as to what it would do well we've had our answer. For the US as whole it will likely be the coldest winter in 20 years and when all said and done likely be in the talks of the late 70s. The 80s had bigger singular cold snaps but all of which did not persist throughout the entire winter like this one has. DFW will have hit the teens in 3 different cold snaps (likely 4 by next week). The single digits is still elusive, for now.

[TheProfessor]

For entertainment purposes only but with a side note that most extended guidance point in this direction

http://models.weatherbell.com/gfs/20140 ... ram_47.png

i've been thinking to myself that if these temperatures where to verify and we got one of those disturbances, like the ones from the 2011-2012 winter which dropped 3,4,5 inches of rain across a lot of Texas,to collide with the cold air, almost the whole state would see record amounts of snow!

[Ntxw]

And, while models have struggled all season with EPO/WPO forecasts - it is interesting to note the foretasted reversal to both + EPO, and + WPO after the first of the month. Lots to monitor in the coming week.

Not sure which model you're looking at but everything I've seen the negative EPO is forecast to continue through the next 15 days and the WPO is forecast to go into even more negative territory

Again, not saying I buy it. Forecasts have done this several times this winter - only to keep values negative.

I don't buy the ESRL forecast either. it's highly suspect and the EPO has beaten every model that tries to go positive mostly this year. If anything the Ensembles and OP are showing one of the greatest -EPO in many years. With the -WPO's help coming it's not going to happen.

[Texas Snowman]

That's February 1899 stuff.

Nah, the high associated with it maxes out around 1047mb, watch the progged temps on tonight's run back off.

Guess it would help to look at how strong the high is and not just the pretty colors, huh?

[Ntxw]

Guess it would help to look at how strong the high is and not just the pretty colors, huh?

Don't tell wxman57 that. He still believes the second week of Feb is it, 1899 style.

[Ntxw]

Well I'll be darned, La La Land NAM says the two systems come out together and kicks off another weather major event for the state mid week with the Arctic front.





Could you imagined if they phased? There would be a raging blizzard.

[gpsnowman]

The plot thickens.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow:
The plot thickens.

Interesting what the GFS may or may not show. The euro and it's ensembles has been showing some light snow for Dallas, it holds the system back and just for the front so it doesn't work out as a major system yet.

[stormlover2013]

That would be worse than the previous winter storm!!

[Ntxw]

That would be worse than the previous winter storm!!

It would be if they phased, being the baja system and the incoming northern stream. It would go negative tilt and boom.

[weatherguy425]

Phasing could help yield precip for a much larger area - there's a benefit. LOL, probably still hard to get precip this far north & WEST.

Y'all definitely deserve winter weather more than the 'high tundra of west Texas', but at this point, we need moisture in any form or fashion. Following a decent summer, vegetation has since dies off. Rounds of bitter cold and dew-points dipping below -10 scream critical fire weather later this spring...

[BigB0882]

NAM is a little south for Baton Rouge but maybe the system will trend a little further north.

[Ntxw]

GFS hangs the baja low over the baja thus no phase and mostly dry cold. It's not that far off though, swing it out a little sooner in front and it's a go. This must be what the east coast people feel like watching the two jets merge for a nor'easter hit and miss lol

[gpsnowman]

We need a sou'central.

[Rgv20]

How do you like the 0zCMC temperature wise for Thursday Morning....the dark blue are SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES!!!!

[BigB0882]

There is just no way that map is going to verify. Why would sub zero temps be in southern Texas and LA but not in Kansas? Are we reading that right? I am not sure southern LA can even get sub zero temps. Has that ever happened in recorded history? CMC is being silly again.

[weatherguy425]

For the northern half of the state, I think the time to watch is 2/1 - 2/4. Nearly all guidance members have some-sort of winter storm affecting most of the southern plains, followed by yet another intrusion of bitterly cold air. This is in line with PNA values really beginning to go negative and another huge forecasted dip an EPO/WPO values.