Texas Winter 2013-2014

[TheProfessor]

Still hoping for a phaser, that would be quite a storm for lots of people including parts of the gulf coast. But the major models right now favor a disconnect which is ideal for deep south TX and Nrn Mexico. Lots of time to change as both systems from n and s are still a long way off before good data ingest.

I personally don't want it to phase. We got nothing here in Del Rio at all.. a phasing system would leave us high and dry again

but then North Texas gets nothing again.

[ndale]

EWX had a wintry mix in their forecast Tues but after last night's model runs took it out, now after the new model runs they have it back in Tues and Tues night forecast. Nothing like a little uncetainty to keep them on there toes.

Here is there Special Weather Statement:
.COLD WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...
...ANOTHER CHANCE OF OF WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY...DROPPING TEMPERATURES 20-30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS TEXAS...PRODUCING PRECIPITATION. SINCE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW FREEZING DURING THE LATE EVENING TO MID-MORNING
HOURS...A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW IS EXPECTED NORTH OF U.S.
90...WHILE A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF
U.S. 90. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS OF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
FREEZING.

THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE LOW TO MODERATE...AND THE AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY MIX OF
WINTER PRECIPITATION CAN CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS...AND THE COLD
CONDITIONS BRING OTHER CONCERNS FOR PEOPLE...PETS...PLANTS...AND
PIPES WITH PROLONGED PERIODS BELOW FREEZING. STAY UP TO DATE WITH
THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PLAN TO COMPLETE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES ON SUNDAY IF POSSIBLE...AND PREPARE FOR A COLD AND
POSSIBLY WINTRY WEEK.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

HGX
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
351 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES. WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR 60 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEARING 70 ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

AFTER OUR BRIEF RESPITE OLD MAN WINTER WILL RETURN ON MONDAY AS A
STRONG FRONT BRINGS ARCTIC AIR BACK TO THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE MORNING AS THE FRONT SHOULD
BE MOVING THROUGH COLLEGE STATION BY DAYBREAK AND INTO THE HOUSTON
METRO AREA BY LUNCHTIME. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WITH
NORTHERN AREAS FALLING INTO THE MID 20S. OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS
FEATURE ALLOWING SURFACE AND NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO COOL
FURTHER. WHILE THERE REMAINS GREAT UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS EVENT
THERE IS ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO INTRODUCE A MENTION OF FROZEN
PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COLDER
THAN LAST WEEK WHICH WOULD SHIFT THE THREAT MORE TOWARD SLEET AND
SNOW...RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN. GREATEST IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO AN AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COLLEGE STATION
TO HOUSTON TO WINNIE. FURTHER NORTH...MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED AND SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. ONE CONCERN WITH THIS
SOLUTION WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INTERACTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS FORECAST TO HANG BACK OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO...WHICH COULD CHANGE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO
WORK WITH. AGAIN...EXPECT TO SEE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST AS WE GET
CLOSER BUT ANOTHER BRUSH WITH WINTER WEATHER LOOKS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEK.

PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ANOTHER QUICK WARMUP EXPECTED MUCH AS WE ARE SEEING NOW. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION BUT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT NEARLY BE AS COLD. 38


They are saying south of college station to winnie to houston as the target point. Hmmm

[vbhoutex]

Had an interesting and somewhat enlightening conversation with my friend Barometer Bob today concerning winter weather along the Gulf coast. We are continuing to see these fronts coming down with bitter cold(for us) air and then the cold air seems to linger longer than usual. The culprit? High pressure over the GOM which is basically creating a damming effect since the cold air can't filter on down into the tropics. The more cold air that gets dammed up, the longer and deeper it will be.?.? The longer it lingers and the deeper it is the more chance we have of Winter precip along the Gulf Coast. I'm interested in members and mets thoughts on this.

[perk]

HGX
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
351 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES. WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR 60 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEARING 70 ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

AFTER OUR BRIEF RESPITE OLD MAN WINTER WILL RETURN ON MONDAY AS A
STRONG FRONT BRINGS ARCTIC AIR BACK TO THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE MORNING AS THE FRONT SHOULD
BE MOVING THROUGH COLLEGE STATION BY DAYBREAK AND INTO THE HOUSTON
METRO AREA BY LUNCHTIME. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WITH
NORTHERN AREAS FALLING INTO THE MID 20S. OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS
FEATURE ALLOWING SURFACE AND NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO COOL
FURTHER. WHILE THERE REMAINS GREAT UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS EVENT
THERE IS ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO INTRODUCE A MENTION OF FROZEN
PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COLDER
THAN LAST WEEK WHICH WOULD SHIFT THE THREAT MORE TOWARD SLEET AND
SNOW...RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN. GREATEST IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO AN AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COLLEGE STATION
TO HOUSTON TO WINNIE. FURTHER NORTH...MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED AND SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. ONE CONCERN WITH THIS
SOLUTION WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INTERACTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS FORECAST TO HANG BACK OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO...WHICH COULD CHANGE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO
WORK WITH. AGAIN...EXPECT TO SEE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST AS WE GET
CLOSER BUT ANOTHER BRUSH WITH WINTER WEATHER LOOKS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEK.

PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ANOTHER QUICK WARMUP EXPECTED MUCH AS WE ARE SEEING NOW. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION BUT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT NEARLY BE AS COLD. 38


They are saying south of college station to winnie to houston as the target point. Hmmm

Check out the graphic on their website it kinda clears that target point up some.

[Tireman4]

Had an interesting and somewhat enlightening conversation with my friend Barometer Bob today concerning winter weather along the Gulf coast. We are continuing to see these fronts coming down with bitter cold(for us) air and then the cold air seems to linger longer than usual. The culprit? High pressure over the GOM which is basically creating a damming effect since the cold air can't filter on down into the tropics. The more cold air that gets dammed up, the longer and deeper it will be.?.? The longer it lingers and the deeper it is the more chance we have of Winter precip along the Gulf Coast. I'm interested in members and mets thoughts on this.

There could be a juornal article in the making...hint hint...lol

[Ntxw]

Had an interesting and somewhat enlightening conversation with my friend Barometer Bob today concerning winter weather along the Gulf coast. We are continuing to see these fronts coming down with bitter cold(for us) air and then the cold air seems to linger longer than usual. The culprit? High pressure over the GOM which is basically creating a damming effect since the cold air can't filter on down into the tropics. The more cold air that gets dammed up, the longer and deeper it will be.?.? The longer it lingers and the deeper it is the more chance we have of Winter precip along the Gulf Coast. I'm interested in members and mets thoughts on this.

I'm sure on a local scale it might have some effects but I'm not a believer it is on a long term. The culprit is the -EPO.

[Ntxw]

I do have some positive news for those looking for precipitation chances. The SOI after seemingly endless positives did finally dip negative. This isn't a surprise as a strong MJO/Kelvin wave signal has begun to cross the Pacific. ENSO regions have warmed after spending much of January cooling thus they are all connected. In short the tropical Pacific is getting wetter after being a barren wasteland the past 30 days. Bodes well for us downstream the next 20-45 days.

Best tropical forcing signal since Sept/Oct when I'm sure we all remember the Austin floods. Not to say we will see flooding (we wish) but the global tropical regime is being reshuffled at least.

[JDawg512]

As long as it's west where the water can flow into the lakes.

On a side note I recently downloaded an app on my Android phone called Meteosphere. It uses computer models and creates stunning global forecasts based on the model data. I recommend all weather enthusiasts to check it out. It is just breathtaking. Shows future precip, wind, temperature, and Jetsteam models and you can see weather for the entire world. Even lighting where storms are forecasted. It does cost a couple of Dollars but it's well worth it imo.

[Ntxw]

I think the first 90F day is looking like it won't occur in February...

I don't think you will get it in March either. CFSv2 and other long term guidance seemingly keeps the warm pool over the NE Pacific through spring. This is a similar configuration as last March and some warming of ENSO. Maybe in late April?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

As long as it's west where the water can flow into the lakes.

On a side note I recently downloaded an app on my Android phone called Meteosphere. It uses computer models and creates stunning global forecasts based on the model data. I recommend all weather enthusiasts to check it out. It is just breathtaking. Shows future precip, wind, temperature, and Jetsteam models and you can see weather for the entire world. Even lighting where storms are forecasted. It does cost a couple of Dollars but it's well worth it imo.

Sounds interesting, not on iOS?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Theyve updated the forecast. 30% chance of snow on tuesday, 20% tuesday night low of 24

[perk]

Theyve updated the forecast. 30% chance of snow on tuesday, 20% tuesday night low of 24

If the models continue to support precipitation I suspect we will be under a winter weather watch by Monday.

[dhweather]

As long as it's west where the water can flow into the lakes.

On a side note I recently downloaded an app on my Android phone called Meteosphere. It uses computer models and creates stunning global forecasts based on the model data. I recommend all weather enthusiasts to check it out. It is just breathtaking. Shows future precip, wind, temperature, and Jetsteam models and you can see weather for the entire world. Even lighting where storms are forecasted. It does cost a couple of Dollars but it's well worth it imo.

Sounds interesting, not on iOS?

I just looked, it's in the Apple App Store, it's $2.99

[TheProfessor]

As long as it's west where the water can flow into the lakes.

On a side note I recently downloaded an app on my Android phone called Meteosphere. It uses computer models and creates stunning global forecasts based on the model data. I recommend all weather enthusiasts to check it out. It is just breathtaking. Shows future precip, wind, temperature, and Jetsteam models and you can see weather for the entire world. Even lighting where storms are forecasted. It does cost a couple of Dollars but it's well worth it imo.

Great I'm going to get it.

[KeriCarter]

Do you think this is an app for those that love the weather but are a bit (lot) challenged when it comes to the technical parts? In other words, is it for people like me?

[gboudx]

Fwiw to Dallas area folks, I heard a strong rumor that the NTMWD will likely impose Stage 4 restrictions soon. And with the report of zebra mussels discovered in Lavon, the hits just keep on coming.

[Ntxw]

0z NAM is gulf coast special from Texas to Florida

[stormlover2013]

How far north does it show moisture up in texas?

[TheProfessor]

How far north does it show moisture up in texas?

not very far it seems. looks like another south texas storm unfortunately.