Texas Winter 2013-2014

[TheProfessor]

This is a lot like spring for North Texas, Theres a promising storm system that looks like it could deliver some big time severe storms, but nope the Mother Of All Caps decides to devoid us of anything.

[Ntxw]

This is a lot like spring for North Texas, Theres a promising storm system that looks like it could deliver some big time severe storms, but nope the Mother Of All Caps decides to devoid us of anything.

Be patient, our time will come. This is not the end of winter, enjoy what is happening to your south it's a rare thing to see. You're not sitting alone Oklahoma, Kansas, Arkansas is sitting devoid of any weather either. There's too much cold around, wait for the pattern to shift back north it will.

GFS has a swath similar to the last storm of snow from roughly the Austin area east to Toledo Bend<- they must be having a heck of a winter

[Rgv20]

12zGFS has 0.5'' to 1.5'' of Snow for my area Tuesday Night and 9 of the 51 0zECMWF Ensembles show Snow for the McAllen area with 3 of them showing 2+ inches!

[Portastorm]

More on 12z GFS ... through 72 hrs ... the ULL looks stronger and more compact and, unlike the 0z and 6z GFS which extended some of the upper level energy into deep south Texas, keeps its energy compact and eventually shears out, losing definition by later Wed as it approaches the WGOM. The track is a bit further south than the 6z and 0z runs. And with the more compact nature of the ULL, it looks to cheat South Texas a bit in terms of precip.

It's just one run, but I think we should agree that the ULL won't be cutting off the California coast and staying there. That issue is resolved now. This system is moving.

Edit update: Just saw Ntxw's post and he's right ... the snow/ice swatch from the 12z GFS looks eerily similar to what actually occurred late this week. East Central/East Texas into Louisiana win the sweepstakes on this run.

[BigB0882]

12zGFS has 0.5'' to 1.5'' of Snow for my area Tuesday Night and 9 of the 51 0zECMWF Ensembles show Snow for the McAllen area with 3 of them showing 2+ inches!

Where do you go to see the Euro ensembles?

[Rgv20]

Weatherbell.com

NWS in Brownsville have not mention any possibility of possible Winter Weather for my area but looks like Corpus are all over it..


[b]Behind Monday's cold front much colder air will filter into the region. There is still a good bit of uncertainty due to large differences in the forecast models, but there is a chance of wintry precipitation across South Texas Tuesday through Wednesday morning. It is still too soon to determine exactly how much precipitation will form and where, but potentially dangerous travel conditions may be possible Tuesday night. Temperatures will be very cold during this time, with highs Tuesday in the upper 30s to low 40s, and lows Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning in the upper 20s to near 30 degrees![/b]

[Ntxw]

I'm sorry to interrupt the regular programming but this is worth posting even if it is beyond truncation. Wxman57's second week feb 1899 prediction, ghostly!



End of message, as you were!

[BigB0882]

Is that a 1066 high?? The GFS has being going back and forth with MAJOR cold beyond 300 hours. Maybe this is what they keep seeing.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS precip type accumulations graphic on WxBell has the snow north of Harris County and south of Harris County (Galveston & in the Gulf). I wouldn't put too much stock in the exact location of the heavier snow yet. I think there's a very good chance of seeing snow accumulations from Harris County (Houston area) east to the FL Panhandle.

[Tireman4]

I found this.....

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid ... 813&type=1

[Portastorm]

12Z GFS precip type accumulations graphic on WxBell has the snow north of Harris County and south of Harris County (Galveston & in the Gulf). I wouldn't put too much stock in the exact location of the heavier snow yet. I think there's a very good chance of seeing snow accumulations from Harris County (Houston area) east to the FL Panhandle.

Whaa? No love for South Central Texas?! Oh, you'll pay for that sir. I'm about to crank the winter thermostat down even further!

[Portastorm]

FWIW, the 12z CMC shows very little if any frozen precip this week for Central/South Texas. The reason why? It keeps the 500mb low out west cut off and never progresses it eastward. Right now the Canadian is the outlier.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS precip type accumulations graphic on WxBell has the snow north of Harris County and south of Harris County (Galveston & in the Gulf). I wouldn't put too much stock in the exact location of the heavier snow yet. I think there's a very good chance of seeing snow accumulations from Harris County (Houston area) east to the FL Panhandle.

Whaa? No love for South Central Texas?! Oh, you'll pay for that sir. I'm about to crank the winter thermostat down even further!

Crank it down too far and you confine the snow to the coast (Houston) and keep Austin in the dry cold.

[Ntxw]

Whaa? No love for South Central Texas?! Oh, you'll pay for that sir. I'm about to crank the winter thermostat down even further!

More shipment arriving at PWC



Wxman57's front porch Mid-Fabruary

[Rgv20]

FWIW, the 12z CMC shows very little if any frozen precip this week for Central/South Texas. The reason why? It keeps the 500mb low out west cut off and never progresses it eastward. Right now the Canadian is the outlier.

That 500mb Low is causing havoc with the models! We will see what the Euro shows in an hour or so..

[Portastorm]

LOL! ... nice comeback. We're just happy to have you back home, wxman57! Now you can experience all of the winter "goodness" which we've been freezing up in our Cooler for you.

[lrak]

So this upcoming weather event might freeze tropical plants along the coast of CC TX. and Port Aransas TX?
Thanks.

[Janie2006]

I like it when people share and share alike. It warms me frozen old heart.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

sorry

[Ntxw]

The Ukmet sends the baja low way south, almost central Mexico south...that's not a trend you want to see in Texas, still does have a little bit of precip for SE TX.