Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Tireman4]

The Ukmet sends the baja low way south, almost central Mexico south...that's not a trend you want to see in Texas, still does have a little bit of precip for SE TX.

Well it is the Ukie.....LOL

[Ntxw]

The Ukmet sends the baja low way south, almost central Mexico south...that's not a trend you want to see in Texas, still does have a little bit of precip for SE TX.

Well it is the Ukie.....LOL

It's a very reliable model. It doesn't go through the major swings like Euro and GFS, though alone it isn't always respected but it's good to use for verification between the other two.

[BigB0882]

Does the ukmet give anything to SELA?

[Ntxw]

Does the ukmet give anything to SELA?

It does but it's close with temperatures

Your precip chances doesn't so much swing on the baja low as it is in Texas. I made a post last night in the deep south thread about the northern stream and the line of rain/storms ahead of the front and being undercut. A northern MX baja low will enhances your amounts but not necessary.

[PTrackerLA]

Wow a 1066 high? This winter is downright crazy.

[Ntxw]

Euro is not all that different from the GFS, swath is similar to the last storm

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro shifted the snow slightly north from it's 0z run. It now shows about 1 inch of sleet/snow in Austin and Houston, with about 2 inches in College Station.

[srainhoutx]

The UKMet was discounted due to the poor handling of the upper trough pattern across the Mid West and Mid Mississippi Valley. The UKMet is too flat with the mean trough and embedded energy.

[South Texas Storms]

The UKMet was discounted due to the poor handling of the upper trough pattern across the Mid West and Mid Mississippi Valley. The UKMet is too flat with the mean trough and embedded energy.

Is that what the latest HPC Model Diagnostic Discussion said?

[TexasF6]

Would someone care to post new graphics please? I'm curious about counties north of Williamson in Austin area and storm impacts....Thanks in advance!

[Ntxw]

The UKMet was discounted due to the poor handling of the upper trough pattern across the Mid West and Mid Mississippi Valley. The UKMet is too flat with the mean trough and embedded energy.

Well to be fair the Euro sends the baja low deep into central MX as well. The induced Texas precip is from northern stream energy

[Portastorm]

The UKMet was discounted due to the poor handling of the upper trough pattern across the Mid West and Mid Mississippi Valley. The UKMet is too flat with the mean trough and embedded energy.

Is that what the latest HPC Model Diagnostic Discussion said?

I believe srainhoutx made his post as a result of this information below from the model diagnostics discussion out of the NWS national weather desk in DC:

BROAD SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY
POTENTIAL ICE STORM FOR THE GULF COAST REGION
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS / 00Z CMC BLEND
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE

THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REGARDING A BROAD
SHORTWAVE...EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUE INTO
WED...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR ICE STORM ALONG THE GULF
COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE 12Z NAM IS ONE EXTREME OF THE
SPREAD...AS THE SLOWEST AND DEEPEST TO DIG THE TROUGH SOUTH
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SN/PL/FZRA FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COASTLINE. THE 00Z UKMET IS THE OTHER EXTREME
WITH A FLATTER/QUICKER UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSION WHICH VERY LITTLE
WINTER PRECIP FOR THE SOUTH.

TRENDS IN THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI HEIGHT PLOTS SUPPORT A SOLUTION
IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE GFS TRENDING TOWARD THIS MIDDLE
CONSENSUS...ALONG WITH VERY SLOW SHIFTS TOWARD THIS IDEA FROM THE
ECMWF/UKMET AS WELL. THE 00Z CMC HAS A SIMILAR IDEA OF THE 12Z
GFS...BUT A BIT LESS SHARP WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON WED. FOR NOW...A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS /
00Z CMC IS PREFERRED WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE LARGER
THAN AVERAGE SPREAD FOR A DAY 2/3 SYSTEM.

[gboudx]

Wxman57's front porch Mid-Fabruary

But he'll still be biking

[TexasF6]

LOL

[HouTXmetro]

Have we reached the time frame where we can simply sit back and see how the main players are evolving on satellite?

[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville afternoon discussion..

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...ALL OF THE FORECAST
CHALLENGES ARE EARLY ON IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...NAMELY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT ARRIVES
MONDAY...OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER MEXICO WILL COMBINE AND PROVIDE A DECENT CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE
AND A COLD LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BIG
CHALLENGE IS GETTING A FEEL FOR JUST HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE
WHEN IT INVADES THE RGV AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND HOW THAT MIGHT
AFFECT THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS OFTEN HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
WITH SHALLOW ARCTIC FRONTS. WITH THAT SAID...AND SIMILAR TO LAST
WEEK...THERE COULD BE SOME INSIGNIFICANT WINTRY TYPE PRECIP THAT
FALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WED
ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZE. MOST LIKELY ANY WINTRY PRECIP
WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE OR ICE
PELLETS. IF THIS DOES MATERIALIZE...NO MEASURABLE ACCUMULATIONS OF
ICE IS EXPECTED. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED
MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY AS GUSTY NORTH WINDS PREVAIL BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT WITH A COUPLE OF TENTHS
POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS...AND MOST AREAS RECEIVING LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATELY HIGH THAT
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF RGV METRO AREAS.

TEMPS WILL BE VERY TRICKY DURING THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PERIOD.
MOST CONCERNED IS THAT DAYTIME HIGHS MAY BE TOO WARM ACCORDING TO
MODELS AS THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MAY BE UNDERREPRESENTED. WITH
THAT IN MIND...TRENDED TOWARDS THE COLDER GUIDANCE. THE GOOD NEWS
IS TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 70S AND 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

[Big O]

Interesting long-range thoughts from WSI: pic.twitter.com/trALivnB4r

[Rgv20]

Looks like the 12zECMWF Ensemble Means want to eject the baja low much quicker than the operational run and as a result the Ensemble Means have some moisture to work with for South Texas.

[gpsnowman]

Steve McCauley seems to think our precipitation chances really get going in early February. Specifically the 3-6 time frame. What will the temps be? Time will tell.

[HouTXmetro]

Looks like the 12zECMWF Ensemble Means want to eject the baja low much quicker than the operational run and as a result the Ensemble Means have some moisture to work with for South Texas.

That would mean more moisture for all of us to work with