Texas Winter 2013-2014

[ndale]

Just read the afternoon AFD out of EWX. Another head scratcher to me. They mention less precip for this coming event than the last one, yet the GFS is showing higher qpf values for this event than it did for the last one. They also mention an all-rain precip event during Tuesday 11 am-7 pm! Whaaa??!! All of the GFS grid numbers show temps in the AUS-SAT area at or below freezing during the day. Very strange.

It's an ultra conservative approach to be sure. Hey look, I wasn't expecting a Blizzard Watch out of them but I certainly wasn't expecting this either. Oh well.

Really! Their quote, "PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHTER THAN THE EVENT LAST WEEK." Where are they getting that info. I have no confidence in that forecast at all.

[hriverajr]

18z GFS does show the baja system moving much farther south and dampening out. Gives central Texas not nearly as much action.

[ndale]

18z GFS does show the baja system moving much farther south and dampening out. Gives central Texas not nearly as much action.

Thanks for a clarification, EWX didn't give any details of where they got their info. Will see what later runs show.

[Jagno]

All of this uncertainty makes it so difficult to plan ahead as a business owner. I have 38 employees to consider and most have to cross bridges or overpasses to get to work. It's simply not worth putting their lives at risk on icy roadways. Last weeks storm left them stranded when the bridges and overpasses suddenly closed. Two people were killed in our city. You'd think that less than 48 hours out they'd be able to tell us about when to expect hazardous conditions. We were thinking of opening up and just closing at 2pm but now I'm seeing conflicting reports of when the system will reach our area.

[Portastorm]

18z GFS does show the baja system moving much farther south and dampening out. Gives central Texas not nearly as much action.

Thanks for a clarification, EWX didn't give any details of where they got their info. Will see what later runs show.

ndale, they weren't basing their forecast off 18z data. That comes in too late prior to their issuance of the afternoon AFD.

[Ntxw]

18z NAM has very little if much for Texas. 18z GFS is the better route at least compared to the NAM.

[ndale]

18z GFS does show the baja system moving much farther south and dampening out. Gives central Texas not nearly as much action.

Thanks for a clarification, EWX didn't give any details of where they got their info. Will see what later runs show.

ndale, they weren't basing their forecast off 18z data. That comes in too late prior to their issuance of the afternoon AFD.

You're right, hadn''t thought of that, then I have to ask again what were they looking at?

[Portastorm]

Just read the afternoon AFD out of EWX. Another head scratcher to me. They mention less precip for this coming event than the last one, yet the GFS is showing higher qpf values for this event than it did for the last one. They also mention an all-rain precip event during Tuesday 11 am-7 pm! Whaaa??!! All of the GFS grid numbers show temps in the AUS-SAT area at or below freezing during the day. Very strange.

It's an ultra conservative approach to be sure. Hey look, I wasn't expecting a Blizzard Watch out of them but I certainly wasn't expecting this either. Oh well.

Porta, what would you say your confidence level is heading into this possible weather event compared to the same timeframe to last week's?

I'd say I'm a little less confident in a winter weather event for Austin than I was at this time prior to the event last week. Why? The 12z and 18z model trends are a bit concerning. And it is hard to argue the trend that this ULL may traverse across Mexico a little deeper than previous thought. That being said, I look at the 21z SREF (short term ensemble forecasts which are usually pretty good) and even the NCEP maps precip totals from 18z and I see anywhere from .10 to .25 precip for Austin. Last week's event only yield .08" and look what happened?! So, I'm thinking ... maybe, just maybe.

I do think our friends in South and Southeast Texas are much more primed for better action than our area.

Hope I can stay awake for the 0z runs tonight.

[ROCK]

18Z NAM is further south with the ULL shearing it out over MX... We will see what the 0Z runs say. Might be right giving less precip to central Texas or even SE TX for that matter...

[HouTXmetro]

Lucy is making her appearance

[Portastorm]

Speaking of making appearances, our West Coast "friend" is making his right now.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=west&channel=wv&coverage=nh&file=gif&imgoranim=8&anim_method=flash

[BigB0882]

Lucy is making her appearance

Don't speak that name!!!!!

[hriverajr]

You can see the upper low off of California, looks a little small to me... it better intensify or else....

[Portastorm]

And by the way, here's a good read for ALL of us with regards to the best models to follow so far. This is from the afternoon model diagnostics discussion out of the NWS/NOAA national weather desk in College Park, Maryland. They're liking the GFS and I've told y'all that I thought the GFS did really well last week, at least for my part of the woods.


BROAD SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY
POTENTIAL ICE STORM FOR THE GULF COAST REGION
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS / 00Z CMC BLEND
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE

THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REGARDING A BROAD
SHORTWAVE...EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUE INTO
WED...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR ICE STORM ALONG THE GULF
COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE 12Z NAM IS ONE EXTREME OF THE
SPREAD...AS THE SLOWEST AND DEEPEST TO DIG THE TROUGH SOUTH
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SN/PL/FZRA FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COASTLINE. THE 12Z UKMET IS THE OTHER EXTREME
WITH A FLATTER/QUICKER UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSION WHICH VERY LITTLE
WINTER PRECIP FOR THE SOUTH.

TRENDS IN THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI HEIGHT PLOTS SUPPORT A SOLUTION
IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE GFS TRENDING TOWARD THIS MIDDLE
CONSENSUS...ALONG WITH VERY SLOW SHIFTS TOWARD THIS IDEA FROM THE
ECMWF/UKMET AS WELL...INCLUDING THEIR 12Z CYCLES. THE 00Z CMC HAS
A SIMILAR IDEA OF THE 12Z GFS...BUT A BIT LESS SHARP WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON WED. GIVEN
THE FASTER SHIFT IN THE 12Z CMC AND DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE NRN
MEXICO REGION REGARDING THE ABOVE SYSTEM...A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS
/ 00Z CMC CONTINUES TO BE PREFERRED WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE DUE TO
THE LARGER THAN AVERAGE SPREAD FOR A DAY 2/3 SYSTEM

[Wntrwthrguy]

I have little to no knowledge on what to look for when looking at different models, so I'm hoping someone can explain to me what to look at. When looking at twisterdata.com, I am looking at snowfall depth on both the 18z GFS and NAM. Both are showing at least some snowfall amounts for south central Texas.

[wxman57]

Interesting 18Z GFS meteogram for Houston. About 2-4" snow and a low Wed of 17, and that's just 2m temps. MOS will probably be colder:

[perk]

Interesting 18Z GFS meteogram for Houston. About 2-4" snow and a low Wed of 17, and that's just 2m temps. MOS will probably be colder:

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfs18zjan26.gif

Would'nt that prolong the icing that may occur Tuesday night.

[Kennethb]

Lucy is making her appearance

Patty: Try to catch snowflakes on your tongue. It's fun.
Linus Van Pelt: Mmm. Needs sugar.
Lucy Van Pelt: It's too early. I never eat December snowflakes. I always wait until January.

[HouTXmetro]

Interesting 18Z GFS meteogram for Houston. About 2-4" snow and a low Wed of 17, and that's just 2m temps. MOS will probably be colder:

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfs18zjan26.gif

How likely is that to verify in precip amounts and that 17? What are you thoughts on the latest model "trends"?

[Snowman67]

18z NAM has very little if much for Texas. 18z GFS is the better route at least compared to the NAM.

Just did a meteogram for Tomball, TX (just NW of Houston) and it actually shows more precipitation here and colder temps than the 12Z GFS.