Texas Winter 2013-2014

[BigB0882]

I don't know. I am looking on twister data and the amounts (snow accumulation) on the NAM through 42 hours are way less than the previous runs. So I don't know if it is seeing it as all snow. Otherwise why isn't it showing up in the twister data images? I have a feeling it is freezing rain. Or, worst of all, the NAM sees temps being too high for frozen precip at all which seems highly unlikely. This run is very odd.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I don't know. I am looking on twister data and the amounts (snow accumulation) on the NAM through 42 hours are way less than the previous runs. So I don't know if it is seeing it as all snow. Otherwise why isn't it showing up in the twister data images? I have a feeling it is freezing rain. Or, worst of all, the NAM sees temps being too high for frozen precip at all which seems highly unlikely. This run is very odd.

Not the case, temps are below freezing according to the 925 data

[cycloneye]

How many inches?

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk

That is sleet for you. About 0.50 to 1 inch.

[Ntxw]

I don't know. I am looking on twister data and the amounts (snow accumulation) on the NAM through 42 hours are way less than the previous runs. So I don't know if it is seeing it as all snow. Otherwise why isn't it showing up in the twister data images? I have a feeling it is freezing rain. Or, worst of all, the NAM sees temps being too high for frozen precip at all which seems highly unlikely. This run is very odd.

It is sleet, oodles of sleet for SE Texas and Louisiana

[Ntxw]

I don't know. I am looking on twister data and the amounts (snow accumulation) on the NAM through 42 hours are way less than the previous runs. So I don't know if it is seeing it as all snow. Otherwise why isn't it showing up in the twister data images? I have a feeling it is freezing rain. Or, worst of all, the NAM sees temps being too high for frozen precip at all which seems highly unlikely. This run is very odd.

Not the case, temps are below freezing according to the 925 data

Temps above 925 are above freezing

Warm nose at 850

[hriverajr]

Nam really buries what is left of the upper low way down in Mexico...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I don't know. I am looking on twister data and the amounts (snow accumulation) on the NAM through 42 hours are way less than the previous runs. So I don't know if it is seeing it as all snow. Otherwise why isn't it showing up in the twister data images? I have a feeling it is freezing rain. Or, worst of all, the NAM sees temps being too high for frozen precip at all which seems highly unlikely. This run is very odd.

Not the case, temps are below freezing according to the 925 data

Temps above 925 are above freezing

Warm nose at 850

Correct, but its frozen precip So freezing at the surface, 850 is still north of Conroe. This is awesome but its sooooo close to being all snow. Any chance to precip can cool the warm nose? Or something.... IM DESPERATE!!!!!!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

OK i see the image now. How deep can snow fall through before it melts? Any rule to follow? That warm nose looks fairly deep

[Ntxw]

Correct, but its frozen precip So freezing at the surface, 850 is still north of Conroe. This is awesome but its sooooo close to being all snow. Any chance to precip can cool the warm nose? Or something.... IM DESPERATE!!!!!!

Frozen at the surface correct hence sleet. If it was just a little above freezing then the margin of error is ok. But it is showing 40s above which I don't think is quite freezing rain but supports sleet since it is of a good size up to 700mb. Assuming the NAM is correct.

[Rgv20]

Nam really buries what is left of the upper low way down in Mexico...

Is that a good set up for winter weather in the RGV? I'm guessing as long as the 500mb wind comes out of the SW for us we are in good shape with regards for moisture.

[Wntrwthrguy]

That was an awful run for the Austin area. Hopefully the GFS gives us some hope tonight.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Correct, but its frozen precip So freezing at the surface, 850 is still north of Conroe. This is awesome but its sooooo close to being all snow. Any chance to precip can cool the warm nose? Or something.... IM DESPERATE!!!!!!

Frozen at the surface correct hence sleet. If it was just a little above freezing then the margin of error is ok. But it is showing 40s above which I don't think is quite freezing rain but supports sleet since it is of a good size up to 700mb. Assuming the NAM is correct.

With the precip going through a layer thats near -10C yeah, sleet i think. Oh man, not what i want. The precip doesnt seem to be as long as other models, like the longevitiy of the event.

[Ntxw]

With the precip going through a layer thats near -10C yeah, sleet i think. Oh man, not what i want. The precip doesnt seem to be as long as other models, like the longevitiy of the event.

Yep if that panned out Houston will be a skating rink on Tuesday and probably stay shut down Wednesday. It will stick in the 20s.

[ravyrn]

That's a pretty significant warm nose the 0Z NAM is advertising compared to previous runs. Let's wait til the other 0Z models roll out before we give up on the snow.

[Rgv20]

0zNAM Forecast Simulated Radar lights up for Deep South Texas starting around 3AM to 9AM Wednesday Morning, temperatures will be a close call but none the less the 0zNAM calls for half an inch to 1 inch of Frozen Precipitation.

3AM Wednesday


6AM


9AM

[BigB0882]

Is the NAM close to a 2 day event in that run or am I misunderstanding?

[ROCK]

Hard to hang my hat on the NAM just yet. Need the GFS here in a few to hopefully provide some consensus. Tomorrow soundings will help....if / when the event gets near...UH release the balloons!!

[Ntxw]

Is the NAM close to a 2 day event in that run or am I misunderstanding?

It's about a 18-24 hour event or a day. Heaviest stuff is Tuesday evening into midnight which the majority of the heavy stuff according to the model.

[Ntxw]

Hard to hang my hat on the NAM just yet. Need the GFS here in a few to hopefully provide some consensus. Tomorrow soundings will help....if / when the event gets near...UH release the balloons!!

Actually since yesterday evening the GFS has been showing a sleet storm for Houston, maybe ending with a little snow. No one bothered to check the soundings and just assumed it was snow. I don't think we'll see much change regarding that from that model.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

This storm looks a lot like the Dallas storm from December. Houston metro should be an ice rink