Texas Winter 2013-2014

[TeamPlayersBlue]

This storm looks a lot like the Dallas storm from December. Houston metro should be an ice rink

Looks like your dream is coming true!

[Ntxw]

This storm looks a lot like the Dallas storm from December. Houston metro should be an ice rink

Sure does, the key is the temperatures. If it was in the low 30s it would be a somewhat not as dangerous wonderland for grass, roofs, and patios but in the 20s the roads will not be pretty.

[ravyrn]

Hard to hang my hat on the NAM just yet. Need the GFS here in a few to hopefully provide some consensus. Tomorrow soundings will help....if / when the event gets near...UH release the balloons!!

Actually since yesterday evening the GFS has been showing a sleet storm for Houston, maybe ending with a little snow. No one bothered to check the soundings and just assumed it was snow. I don't think we'll see much change regarding that from that model.

You're probably right about that. I've been doing a lot of school work lately so I've just been focusing on SWLA as I have lots of friends from home still down that way. I've been mostly checking the GFS as it's the most convenient source to reference for me, but per the GFS, areas further north of Houston and especially in SWLA seem to have a shot at a changeover. This is just my interpretation of the model data and by no means a forecast.

[Portastorm]

Meh, this board is losing its edge. We used to laugh off the NAM on a regular basis. Now I see cliff diving! C'mon folks, it's the NAM for crying out loud!!

Now if you see similar stuff from the GFS and Euro, then you can jump off the ledge.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

This storm looks a lot like the Dallas storm from December. Houston metro should be an ice rink

Looks like your dream is coming true!

Convective banding going HAM on SE Texas... WOW!

[TheProfessor]

That Dallas Ice storm actually wasn't very fun. It took my dad and I 3 and a half hours to get to a pharmacy 10 minutes away in order to get medicine for my mom.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 270325
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
925 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014

.UPDATE...
MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH AN EARLY EVENING SPIKE IN DEW POINTS AS
SOUTHWEST BREEZES HAVE BACKED MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS MAY CREATE
MORE OPEN AREA PATCHY FOG (PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA) AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS FALL TO NEAR ZERO AND
THE BREEZE LAYS DOWN. THE RELATIVELY FAST-MOVING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY TRAVELING THROUGH NEBRASKA WILL BE PUSHING
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...PROGRESSIVELY REACHING
THE COAST BY LATE MORNING.

THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY COLD AND DRY...MID
TEEN AMBIENT AND NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS IN THE DAKOTAS
EVIDENCE TO THE POTENCY OF THIS NEXT AIR MASS TO DESCEND INTO
TEXAS TOMORROW. NWP SUITE STILL FORECASTING AREAWIDE QPF IN THE
QUARTER (INTERIOR) TO NEAR HALF INCH (COAST) LIQUID PRECIP TUESDAY
THAT WOULD EQUATE TO SNOW MEASURED BY THE INCHES OVER A GOOD PART
OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH
AN EARLY DAY FROZEN MIX TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW (SANS THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...MAYBE) BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS BECAUSE
OF THE COLD AIR ENTRENCHING ITSELF OVER THE AREA BEFORE AN ANTICIPATED
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE RIDING UP FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST INITIATES
THE LIFT NEEDED IN GENERATING PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL DEVELOP AS
EITHER UPPER LEVEL FALLING ICE CRYSTALS AND/OR SUPER-COOLED DROPLETS
EVAPORATIVELY-COOL THE LOWER COLUMN TOWARDS THE WET BULB TEMP THROUGH
THE DAY. RELATIVELY SHALLOW EARLY DAY 7-800MB WARM (ABOVE FREEZING)
LAYER IS ANTICIPATED TO SHRINK BACK TOWARDS 0 C INTO MID-DAY. WHILE
SNOW IS BECOMING NEARLY CERTAIN OVER THE FAR NORTHERN INTERIOR
COUNTIES...A LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW
OVER (NEAR) COASTAL COUNTIES IS BECOMING A MENTIONABLE EVENT. OF
COURSE...THE REAL HAZARDS WILL COME WITH THE PRECURSOR FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET THAT WILL COAT ROADWAYS AND POWER LINES WITH ICE.
THE BELOW REASONING STILL HOLDS TRUE ON HOW THIS WINTER WEATHER
EVENT WILL UNFOLD TUESDAY. OF COURSE...TEMPERATURES DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING...ALL OF THIS
SOUND FAMILIAR? 31



Despite the sounding, HGX is sticking to their guns. Saying the column will cool. That would be alot of snow if it does what HGX thinks

[Ntxw]

0z GFS pretty much is the same, sleet/ice storm for Houston and changeover possibly in northern parts of SE Texas. This would be a fairly significant ice/sleet storm for Houston metro perhaps ending with a little snow. I'll check the soundings once they are available and hopefully it is marginal enough that a little colder will help.

[ravyrn]

0z GFS pretty much is the same, sleet/ice storm for Houston and changeover possibly in northern parts of SE Texas. This would be a fairly significant ice/sleet storm for Houston metro perhaps ending with a little snow. I'll check the soundings once they are available and hopefully it is marginal enough that a little colder will help.

Yeah, this is the 0Z NAM @ Hobby.

[South Texas Storms]

0z GFS pretty much is the same, sleet/ice storm for Houston and changeover possibly in northern parts of SE Texas. This would be a fairly significant ice/sleet storm for Houston metro perhaps ending with a little snow. I'll check the soundings once they are available and hopefully it is marginal enough that a little colder will help.

Mostly snow in CLL Ntxw?

[Rgv20]

Looking at the Wxbell precip type for the 0zGFS is mostly Sleet with some Freezing Drizzle with this upcoming storm..

[Ntxw]

Mostly snow in CLL Ntxw?

Looks like sleet is the predominant type for CLL with the bulk of the precip until near the end. I'm eyeballing this from wxbell maps, the soundings on twisterdata aren't out yet.

[stormlover2013]

Meteorologist just texted me and said gfs shows about 2 inches of sleet and 2 inches of snow in the golden triangle.

[Snowman67]

Mostly snow in CLL Ntxw?

Looks like sleet is the predominant type for CLL with the bulk of the precip until near the end. I'm eyeballing this from wxbell maps, the soundings on twisterdata aren't out yet.

Interesting that this evenings discussion from Hou/Galv that just came out states confidence that the column will cool enough to support all snow by mid afternoon Tuesday in most locations

[Ntxw]

Interesting that this evenings discussion from Hou/Galv that just came out states confidence that the column will cool enough to support all snow by mid afternoon Tuesday in most locations

What is cooling the column though? If there is a warm nose, precip will bring it down. The baja low keeps shunting south with the overall trends and there's no ULL overhead to cool the column. It's classic overrunning set up for an ice storm based on how things look.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I'm looking at these convective bands... Man, someone is going to get north of 6 inches of measurable sleet/snow. Throw a dart at whoever will be that lucky. Can you imagine that band cutting a SW to NE line right across Houston?

[HouTXmetro]

Mostly snow in CLL Ntxw?

Looks like sleet is the predominant type for CLL with the bulk of the precip until near the end. I'm eyeballing this from wxbell maps, the soundings on twisterdata aren't out yet.

Interesting that this evenings discussion from Hou/Galv that just came out states confidence that the column will cool enough to support all snow by mid afternoon Tuesday in most locations

Agrees.

Houston NWS
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY COLD AND DRY...MID
TEEN AMBIENT AND NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS IN THE DAKOTAS
EVIDENCE TO THE POTENCY OF THIS NEXT AIR MASS TO DESCEND INTO
TEXAS TOMORROW. NWP SUITE STILL FORECASTING AREAWIDE QPF IN THE
QUARTER (INTERIOR) TO NEAR HALF INCH (COAST) LIQUID PRECIP TUESDAY
THAT WOULD EQUATE TO SNOW MEASURED BY THE INCHES OVER A GOOD PART
OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH
AN EARLY DAY FROZEN MIX TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW (SANS THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...MAYBE) BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS BECAUSE
OF THE COLD AIR ENTRENCHING ITSELF OVER THE AREA BEFORE AN ANTICIPATED
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE RIDING UP FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST INITIATES
THE LIFT NEEDED IN GENERATING PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL DEVELOP AS
EITHER UPPER LEVEL FALLING ICE CRYSTALS AND/OR SUPER-COOLED DROPLETS
EVAPORATIVELY-COOL THE LOWER COLUMN TOWARDS THE WET BULB TEMP THROUGH
THE DAY. RELATIVELY SHALLOW EARLY DAY 7-800MB WARM (ABOVE FREEZING)
LAYER IS ANTICIPATED TO SHRINK BACK TOWARDS 0 C INTO MID-DAY. WHILE
SNOW IS BECOMING NEARLY CERTAIN OVER THE FAR NORTHERN INTERIOR
COUNTIES...A LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW
OVER (NEAR) COASTAL COUNTIES IS BECOMING A MENTIONABLE EVENT. OF
COURSE...THE REAL HAZARDS WILL COME WITH THE PRECURSOR FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET THAT WILL COAT ROADWAYS AND POWER LINES WITH ICE.
THE BELOW REASONING STILL HOLDS TRUE ON HOW THIS WINTER WEATHER
EVENT WILL UNFOLD TUESDAY. OF COURSE...TEMPERATURES DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING...ALL OF THIS
SOUND FAMILIAR? 31
User avatar
don

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I'm looking at these convective bands... Man, someone is going to get north of 6 inches of measurable sleet/snow. Throw a dart at whoever will be that lucky. Can you imagine that band cutting a SW to NE line right across Houston?

Would be awesome!

[Snowman67]

Interesting that this evenings discussion from Hou/Galv that just came out states confidence that the column will cool enough to support all snow by mid afternoon Tuesday in most locations

What is cooling the column though? If there is a warm nose, precip will bring it down. The baja low keeps shunting south with the overall trends and there's no ULL overhead to cool the column. It's classic overrunning set up for an ice storm based on how things look.

That you'd have to ask the NWS forecasters. Obviously they are seeing something that leads them to believe that. Whether they're right or not, we'll have to wait and see.

[txwxwatcher]

Between the local NWS forecasters (who are quite conservative with their forecasts), as well as the growing confidence of snow from some of our most seasoned on air mets, my bets are on snow, with perhaps some sleet mixed in, for the Houston metro area. Folks in the Houston area, enjoy this opportunity. It doesn't come around very often at all.