Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[cycloneye]

I definitely spoke too soon, filling in very nicely. Showing 5 inches now.

It was a strong NAM run that has sleet/snow for the deep south from SE Texas to Carolinas. Now let's see what the other models have.

[Ivanhater]

00Z NAM is the snowiest of all for the gulf....5-7 inches for P'cola/Mobile/Mississippi so far...all that on top of the ice storm before the snow

[BigB0882]

Do the snow accumulation maps on Twisterdata differentiate between sleet and snow? Can those 5 inches be sleet and snow? Or is it only snow?

[Ntxw]

Do the snow accumulation maps on Twisterdata differentiate between sleet and snow? Can those 5 inches be sleet and snow? Or is it only snow?

It's having problems I think. The soundings I plot for various cities show majority of it is sleet/freezing rain ending a little as snow for a couple of hours.

[BigB0882]

That is what I figured. I am curious to compare these to the GFS. GFS had marginal 850 temps for my area but not nearly as warm as NAM is showing.

[SeGaBob]

Any more snow accumulation maps? Things are really getting interesting for Tuesday-Wednesday

[cycloneye]

Here is the graphic by Levi Cowan that is not in his site.

[bella_may]

I just now realized the 18Z GFS is showing 7-8 inches of snow close to my area. That's amazing! And scary.

[SeGaBob]

So is my area trending towards ice or are we still in line to get both? I'm seeing mixed opinions on this event... I'd rather have the snow over the ice because opportunities like this don't come very often.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS. Posting some graphics of this run in this post.

24 hours.



39 hours.



54 hours.





84 hours.

[cycloneye]

Ntxw,did the 00z operational GFS came closer to the 18z ensembles?

[Ntxw]

Ntxw,did the 00z operational GFS came closer to the 18z ensembles?

I think we have a pretty good consensus from the guidance of what will happen both OP and ensembles. High impact sleet/ice event (end as a little snow) for the immediate gulf coast region. Areas just to the north will probably see some decent snow and the Carolinas...well lots of snow for them

[bella_may]

2 GFS runs in a row now that shows almost 8 inches for my area. Incredible!

I'm not even sure what a couple inches of snow looks like. Much less 8!

[BigB0882]

Wow, the GFS is incredible. In line with the NAM. If nothing crazy happens tomorrow then I can't wait to watch this unfold.

[SunnyThoughts]

2 GFS runs in a row now that shows almost 8 inches for my area. Incredible!

I'm not even sure what a couple inches of snow looks like. Much less 8!

Hopefully some of that is rain for tomorrow...I do know it starts as rain and I think the totals take into account all the precipitation. Man I can handle a little ice and a couple or 3 inches of snow.. ( we had that here before in Pensacola about 38 years or so ago) but anything more than that we will have major problems...problems we haven't even thought of yet no doubt. Good luck everybody. Hopefully nobody loses power and has to try and stay warm some other way.

[Ntxw]

This is what the NAM looks like using the Kuchera derived ratio's (taking out sleet and freezing rain). It's in line now with the Euro of 0.5 to 4 inches for various locations in the gulf coast and a little more just to the north. GFS using the same method probably looks quite similar but a smidge colder.

[SunnyThoughts]

This is what the NAM looks like using the Kuchera derived ratio's (taking out sleet and freezing rain). It's in line now with the Euro of 0.5 to 4 inches for various locations in the gulf coast and a little more just to the north. GFS using the same method probably looks quite similar but a smidge colder.

Man, I'd love for this to be the outcome. But no sleet or freezing rain either lol. Just plain ole cold...like we've been so far this winter. You folks up farther north can have it. I don't want the ice and lose my power.

[bella_may]

This is what the NAM looks like using the Kuchera derived ratio's (taking out sleet and freezing rain). It's in line now with the Euro of 0.5 to 4 inches for various locations in the gulf coast and a little more just to the north. GFS using the same method probably looks quite similar but a smidge colder.

84hrs?

[Ntxw]

Man, I'd love for this to be the outcome. But no sleet or freezing rain either lol. Just plain ole cold...like we've been so far this winter. You folks up farther north can have it. I don't want the ice and lose my power.

I'm afraid you are not out of the woods. I would take snow over the sleet/ice you may get.

[Ntxw]

84hrs?

That's the snow expected from the NAM through 84 hours, the entire run.