Texas Winter 2013-2014

[txwxwatcher]

If this pans out as now expected, Tuesday may be iffy but many employers in Houston will not be expecting employees to commute to work on Wednesday (or instructing them to not even make the attempt).

I think people in Houston metro should just stay home. My bet is this will be a bad ice storm for the city which probably doesn't have the man power or trucks for something like this prepared. It's better just to be at home and enjoy it.

I agree. I must point out again though that some of our most experienced and longtime local on air mets are discussing concerns about the intensity of snowfall accumulations in Houston with this system.

[JDawg512]

I'm seeing with future precipitation model over Texas shows frozen precipitation to start forming over Austin around 1 p.m and really blowing up east and south eastward as the afternoon goes on. We might get more than what the local NWS is forecasting but it will definitely be greater amounts for Southeast Texas over to Houston.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Austin still gets precip but its iffy for Advisory/Watch criteria.

I've said that SE Texas could see some wild snow/sleet rates with potential ThunderSleet or ThunderSnow.

[Ntxw]

I will respectfully disagree with the thoughts on heavy snow, I believe this will be a predominant sleet event unless you are in the northern reaches of SE Texas but the heaviest precip is to the south with everyone else possibly ending as some snow but the main impacts will be sleet and roads. Emphasis on disclaimer below . IF the baja low is stronger and moves much further north than there would be better catalyst for cooling the column, but there is little support for that at this time.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

David Paul on KHOU just mentioned what I've been saying... Isolated 5-7 inch amounts in and around Houston.

[txwxwatcher]

Heads up. David Paul from Houston CBS-TV affiliate KHOU just gave the late evening tv forecast, saying this could be "pretty serious", good band of snow that sits along I-10 starting around 10 am that sits on us for 3-9 hours, with snow totals exceeding 5 inches in some spots. Travel on Tuesday is forecasted to be "impossible." Tuesday "may be a day where nobody travels," he said. He also noted that some models are spitting out 5-7 inch snowfall totals in our area.

[txwxwatcher]

David Paul on KHOU just mentioned what I've been saying... Isolated 5-7 inch amounts in and around Houston.

I agree. Nothing against the longtime posters here, but our local experts are clearly seeing a major snow event for Houston.

[ravyrn]

I will respectfully disagree with the thoughts on heavy snow, I believe this will be a predominant sleet event unless you are in the northern reaches of SE Texas but the heaviest precip is to the south with everyone else possibly ending as some snow but the main impacts will be sleet and roads. Emphasis on disclaimer below . IF the baja low is stronger and moves much further north than there would be better catalyst for cooling the column, but there is little support for that at this time.

I'm with you. Obviously you guys should listen to the professionals, but I'm on Ntxw's boat that this will mostly be a sleet event for Houston.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Ntxw]

Heads up. David Paul from Houston CBS-TV affiliate KHOU just gave the late evening tv forecast, saying this could be "pretty serious", good band of snow that sits along I-10 starting around 10 am that sits on us for 3-9 hours, with snow totals exceeding 5 inches in some spots. Travel on Tuesday is forecasted to be "impossible." Tuesday "may be a day where nobody travels," he said. He also noted that some models are spitting ou 5-7 inch totals.

What model is spitting out 5-7 inches? NAM and GFS have no measurable snowfall except to the north, Euro has 0.5-1inch. Mostly sleet.

[ravyrn]

Are there any models that support heavy snow? I haven't seen any.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Well David didn't say it would be 5-7 inches of snow... he said 5-7 inch mix bag where those bands set up.

[Ntxw]

Well David didn't say it would be 5-7 inches of snow... he said 5-7 inch mix bag where those bands set up.

Exceeding 5 inch snow totals, some spitting out 5-7 inches.

[txwxwatcher]

Heads up. David Paul from Houston CBS-TV affiliate KHOU just gave the late evening tv forecast, saying this could be "pretty serious", good band of snow that sits along I-10 starting around 10 am that sits on us for 3-9 hours, with snow totals exceeding 5 inches in some spots. Travel on Tuesday is forecasted to be "impossible." Tuesday "may be a day where nobody travels," he said. He also noted that some models are spitting ou 5-7 inch totals.

What model is spitting out 5-7 inches? NAM and GFS have no measurable snowfall except to the north, Euro has 0.5-1inch. Mostly sleet.

He didn't mention which models. His forecast for the I-10 event in Houston was based on their Futuretrack forecast. I have no idea what that is based on, but I do know that KHOU is very cautious and I trust their and David's expert judgment.

[txwxwatcher]

Well David didn't say it would be 5-7 inches of snow... he said 5-7 inch mix bag where those bands set up.

Exceeding 5 inch snow totals, some spitting out 5-7 inches.

Verbatim from my DVR of the newscast:

Immediately after his comments about the I-10 discussion: "I am afraid that we could see snow totals in some areas that exceed 5 inches in some spots. Yes I said that."

To end his segment: "It looks like the atmospheric profile is for mostly snow, and some of the models are putting out 5-7 inch totals."

Can we settle this now?

[ravyrn]

Heads up. David Paul from Houston CBS-TV affiliate KHOU just gave the late evening tv forecast, saying this could be "pretty serious", good band of snow that sits along I-10 starting around 10 am that sits on us for 3-9 hours, with snow totals exceeding 5 inches in some spots. Travel on Tuesday is forecasted to be "impossible." Tuesday "may be a day where nobody travels," he said. He also noted that some models are spitting ou 5-7 inch totals.

What model is spitting out 5-7 inches? NAM and GFS have no measurable snowfall except to the north, Euro has 0.5-1inch. Mostly sleet.

He didn't mention which models. His forecast for the I-10 event in Houston was based on their Futuretrack forecast. I have no idea what that is based on, but I do know that KHOU is very cautious and I trust their and David's expert judgment.

You should certainly listen to professionals over any non-blue names on this forum. I hope their snowy forecast pans out for you guys.

[Ntxw]

Verbatim from my DVR of the newscast: "It looks like the atmospheric profile is for mostly snow, and some of the models are putting out 5-7 inch totals." Can we settle this now?

I'm no pro met so by all means listen to him. But I still don't see where these models are he is seeing it from because I certainly can't find them, I'd just like to see factual support for a statement.

[BigB0882]

Come on guys, no need to argue. We all know that NO ONE can accurately predict snowfall amounts, even 1 hour before the event starts. Ntxw has been GREAT in providing tons of information and really knows his stuff. I am sure he is just giving his opinion and letting you know not to bank everything on one forecast by one person. In his defense, there are NO models showing those amounts of snow so his wondering is quite understandable.

BUT, for the record, I hope you do get 6 inches! I hope we all do! ALL SNOW. hehe

[txwxwatcher]

Come on guys, no need to argue. We all know that NO ONE can accurately predict snowfall amounts, even 1 hour before the event starts. Ntxw has been GREAT in providing tons of information and really knows his stuff. I am sure he is just giving his opinion and letting you know not to bank everything on one forecast by one person.

Understood, just know that for now, the mets down here are discussing more of a snow type event for the city than an ice storm.

[wxman22]

I think David Paul might of been referring to In-House models...

[txwxwatcher]

Come on guys, no need to argue. We all know that NO ONE can accurately predict snowfall amounts, even 1 hour before the event starts. Ntxw has been GREAT in providing tons of information and really knows his stuff. I am sure he is just giving his opinion and letting you know not to bank everything on one forecast by one person. In his defense, there are NO models showing those amounts of snow so his wondering is quite understandable.

BUT, for the record, I hope you do get 6 inches! I hope we all do! ALL SNOW. hehe

Completely agree, and I mean no disrespect to Ntxw and his contributions to this forum. Hope everyone gets what they want out of this.