SIO: INVEST 91S

[supercane4867]

[mrbagyo]

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[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8S 47.2E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 45.3E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEPENING CONVECTION IN ALL QUADRANTS. A 270255Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS IMPROVED FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES AS THE LLCC HAS BECOME MORE
IDENTIFIABLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
AS THE SYSTEM IS NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS WITH FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND LOW
(05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE AREA (28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

WTXS21 PGTW 281430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280251Z JAN 14//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 280300)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9S 42.4E TO 19.2S 38.3E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 281400Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 41.6E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7S
44.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 41.6E, APPROXIMATELY 810 NM
NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING, SMALL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
A 281238Z SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE SYSTEM. THE LLCC
IS LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE
TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD DIFFLUENCE. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA (28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
291430Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 153.4E.//
NNNN