Texas Winter 2013-2014

[MississippiWx]

The Euro seems to be the dry one of the bunch (minus the crazy uncle Canadian). A little less than 0.10 of an inch of liquid, 0.20 tenths for northern and eastern areas. So sleet or snow it amounts to 0.5-1 inch of stuff for most of SE Texas core being closer to Jasper which is around 1.5inches. But it's been fairly bearish on the qpf from the start anyway.

Euro does kick out the upper level disturbance south of Baja. Trending towards the GFS at the 500mb level. Will be interesting if the precip amounts start going up in response. Euro is slightly wetter overall, but still dry in comparison.

Yeah I was expecting to see an increase in the QPF amounts across SE Texas this run from the Euro due to it kicking out the Baja disturbance. Why do you think it didn't?

Probably due to the northern stream shortwave moving a little too fast to phase with the southern stream shortwave. The result is less lift/potency of the overall system.

[South Texas Storms]

Thanks Ntxw and MississippiWx. I'm hoping for at least an inch of sleet/snow from this event. Maybe I'll get lucky and get under a band of 1"/hr snow rates for a few hours

[Ntxw]

Probably due to the northern stream shortwave moving a little too fast to phase with the southern stream shortwave. The result is less lift/potency of the overall system.

This seems to be it. The further they are apart the weaker the lift will be. The trend has been getting the baja low a little further south/slower since yesterday which isn't all that great, it needs to interact more with the northern stream for Texas. Areas to the east still have pretty good qpf totals at least 0.5 inches through the northern stream alone.

[gpsnowman]

Good morning folks. The wind this morning is insane. Hello cold front. My car thermometor started at 50 degrees and by the time I reached work it was 45. Should be in the 30s soon with nasty wind chills. Just wish we had some moisture up DFWs way.

[Portastorm]

Good morning folks. The wind this morning is insane. Hello cold front. My car thermometor started at 50 degrees and by the time I reached work it was 45. Should be in the 30s soon with nasty wind chills. Just wish we had some moisture up DFWs way.

Sounds like the front is strong as advertised. Don't feel too bad gpsnowman about the lack of moisture. Looking more and more like I'll be joining you. The trend is NOT my friend as most of the models have backed away from any measurable precip for Austin. I believe the SREF is the only one showing much of anything. The GFS/Euro/CMC have all backed (or are backing) away from giving Austin much if anything. Not ready to give up yet but it's getting harder to swim against this tide.

I hope our Houston friends are OK and recovering from their crazy Sunday night forecast hangover!

[jerryh421]

It seems as though our area is not going to be that bad anymore. NWS has lowered our chance to 50%. Seems like the trend is not in my favor as well.

[wxman57]

It seems as though our area is not going to be that bad anymore. NWS has lowered our chance to 50%. Seems like the trend is not in my favor as well.

I think that precip chances are closer to 100% tomorrow. Nothing has changed overnight. The main question is how much winter precip we'll get in Houston (and Conroe) not if it will happen. NWS is being quite conservative.

[Portastorm]

It seems as though our area is not going to be that bad anymore. NWS has lowered our chance to 50%. Seems like the trend is not in my favor as well.

I think that precip chances are closer to 100% tomorrow. Nothing has changed overnight. The main question is how much winter precip we'll get in Houston (and Conroe) not if it will happen. NWS is being quite conservative.

Actually the 6z NCEP/GFS precip map is "wetter" for the Houston area than the 0z run. Now shows between .10 to .25" of precip. 0z run showed .01 to .10".

I concur with my Heat Miser friend. Question is now IF but HOW MUCH for southeast Texas.

[seahawkjd]

WXMan,

I'm sorry if this is off topic but I really respect your forecasts during the hurricane season. Do you have any thoughts on what we should expect in eastern North Carolina?

[gpsnowman]

Ideally, a North Texas blizzard is preferred but you have to cheer for folks in Austin and Houston to get hit with winter fun! It will be fun watching places in the deep south getting snow.
Not even 7 am and close to 100 users on the winter forum.

[jerryh421]

It seems as though our area is not going to be that bad anymore. NWS has lowered our chance to 50%. Seems like the trend is not in my favor as well.

I think that precip chances are closer to 100% tomorrow. Nothing has changed overnight. The main question is how much winter precip we'll get in Houston (and Conroe) not if it will happen. NWS is being quite conservative.

Actually the 6z NCEP/GFS precip map is "wetter" for the Houston area than the 0z run. Now shows between .10 to .25" of precip. 0z run showed .01 to .10".

I concur with my Heat Miser friend. Question is now IF but HOW MUCH for southeast Texas.

Should I expect the majority of it to be in Houston southward? Thanks!

[Portastorm]

jerryh421, the 6z GFS maps suggest the heaviest precip will be in an area to the east of Austin, extending down to Houston, and back up to ... eh ... Lufkin, maybe. See the map below and remember that even just a tenth of an inch of freezing rain/sleet can have a big impact on an area.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[wxman57]

One thing I note (for Houston) in the GFS and NAM forecast soundings is that there is a warm nose present above 850mb all day tomorrow. This would suggest more of a freezing rain and sleet event for Houston rather than a snow event. Similar to last Friday.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Wxman got a question for you. Why when looking at radar simulated models that show an area lit up with heavy returns for 3-6 hrs, then go to the total accumulation for the same model same time frame and even out further by 3 hrs it shows nothing or a trace?

[Ntxw]

Ideally, a North Texas blizzard is preferred but you have to cheer for folks in Austin and Houston to get hit with winter fun! It will be fun watching places in the deep south getting snow.
Not even 7 am and close to 100 users on the winter forum.

Be careful what you ask for gps! The next one for Texas/Oklahoma may just be that. A Texas hooker blizzard keeps showing up on and off feb 1-5.

[Snowman67]

One thing I note (for Houston) in the GFS and NAM forecast soundings is that there is a warm nose present above 850mb all day tomorrow. This would suggest more of a freezing rain and sleet event for Houston rather than a snow event. Similar to last Friday.

Which is exactly what Ntxw has been saying all along in his posts.

[Snowman67]

It seems as though our area is not going to be that bad anymore. NWS has lowered our chance to 50%. Seems like the trend is not in my favor as well.

I think that precip chances are closer to 100% tomorrow. Nothing has changed overnight. The main question is how much winter precip we'll get in Houston (and Conroe) not if it will happen. NWS is being quite conservative.

Actually the 6z NCEP/GFS precip map is "wetter" for the Houston area than the 0z run. Now shows between .10 to .25" of precip. 0z run showed .01 to .10".

I concur with my Heat Miser friend. Question is now IF but HOW MUCH for southeast Texas.

Porta - regarding the higher precip totals you mention above for the Houston area - When I made a meteogram based on the GFS 06z run, it showed less precipitation totals than the one I made off of the 0z run. Is it pulling different data than the "GFS Precip Map" you are referring to? Thanks.

[Portastorm]

Snowman67...my short answer is "I don't know." My observations were based on looking over the 0z and 6z GFS/NCEP 36-hr precip totals. The maps clearly show a deeper pool of moisture in the 6z run as compared to the 0z. How the data you pulled matches up with what NCEP is showing ... Not certain.

[Snowman67]

Snowman67...my short answer is "I don't know." My observations were based on looking over the 0z and 6z GFS/NCEP 36-hr precip totals. The maps clearly show a deeper pool of moisture in the 6z run as compared to the 0z. How the data you pulled matches up with what NCEP is showing ... Not certain.

Thanks Porta. I'm pulling for the totals in the map you referenced!

[Texas Snowman]

Ideally, a North Texas blizzard is preferred but you have to cheer for folks in Austin and Houston to get hit with winter fun! It will be fun watching places in the deep south getting snow.
Not even 7 am and close to 100 users on the winter forum.

Be careful what you ask for gps! The next one for Texas/Oklahoma may just be that. A Texas hooker blizzard keeps showing up on and off feb 1-5.

Bring it!