Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Snowman67]

12Z NAM coming in a bit wetter than 06Z IMO....

12Z NAM has no snow in Houston or SE TX. Snow to the north of us and heavy snow SE LA (6-8") and south MS (5-7") and eastward across the FL Panhandle and southern GA.

So what's your take on this for my area (Tomball) Wx57? Are you thinking that precipitation totals are starting to look lighter than they were forecasted to be just 24hrs ago, or that it will be the same only freezing rain and sleet instead of snow? Thanks.

[JGrin87]

Right on cue (about 24 hours out) the NAM goes to what the GFS has been showing for days, this is starting to get comical how much that model has been dominating the weather world lately. NAM is drier and even a little warmer for Houston tomorrow.

Anyone that has lived in Texas for their whole lives could have predicted this, though. Almost every winter event ever hyped up ends up being a bust. I grew up in Dallas, and I think every event that was ever hyped was a bust. It was the non-hyped events that were the big events.

[Tireman4]

Right on cue (about 24 hours out) the NAM goes to what the GFS has been showing for days, this is starting to get comical how much that model has been dominating the weather world lately. NAM is drier and even a little warmer for Houston tomorrow.

Anyone that has lived in Texas for their whole lives could have predicted this, though. Almost every winter event ever hyped up ends up being a bust. I grew up in Dallas, and I think every event that was ever hyped was a bust. It was the non-hyped events that were the big events.

This is not a bust. Every event is different. Winter weather is tricky in Texas. You know that. You have to take into account everything. You never know, this event could exceed all expectations. Just sit tight and watch.

[ROCK]

what he said...

[BigB0882]

Well, if I don't get 6 inches of snow or more then it is a bust!!!

[Texas Snowman]

Every "hyped" event a bust? I think not. I can recall several that were hyped and delivered the goods. I can also recall several that weren't hyped and still delivered a big surprise. And to be truthful, yes, I can recall plenty that were hyped and never delivered.

Moral of the story? We are at the southern end of the Great Plains, close to the source region for moisture, very far away from source regions for deep, cold air. Getting everything together in the right quantities and places - and all of that at the right time - is tricky at best.

Winter weather in Texas is very dynamic, always changing, always evolving.

That's why this thread has 272 pages and counting on Jan. 27th.

[orangeblood]

Right on cue (about 24 hours out) the NAM goes to what the GFS has been showing for days, this is starting to get comical how much that model has been dominating the weather world lately. NAM is drier and even a little warmer for Houston tomorrow.

Anyone that has lived in Texas for their whole lives could have predicted this, though. Almost every winter event ever hyped up ends up being a bust. I grew up in Dallas, and I think every event that was ever hyped was a bust. It was the non-hyped events that were the big events.

Yeah, it appears this one is trending towards the bust column....looking over this mornings models, at this time it looks like this is a marginal winter weather event, maybe winter weather advisory criteria for southeast Texas - temps barely down to freezing with less than 0.15 inch precip. With the warm ground temps over the weekend, don't see a lot of driving issues in and around Houston Metro tomorrow. I would be very surprised if they upgraded the watch to a warning.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im going to be captain optimistic here and say we will get more moisture than most of the models are saying. They often underestimate the amount of precip. I also think we will get mostly sleet, but it will change over to snow alot sooner than expected. Just my thought. Keeping an eye on the 850 line. Pressure is rising here in Sugar Land, weather center is ready to be spinning like a top when those winds get here

[HouTXmetro]

What is it with Houston and these warm noses? Is it the Heat Island thing?

[jerryh421]

Im assuming most the models are trending drier?

[gboudx]

I hope I can post this...


https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid ... =1&theater

If it's on Facebook, then it's public consumption. I wouldn't worry about it. By contrast, there's a met in the New Orleans area named T. Scott Barry. He sends email updates every now and then; and he's so paranoid about his forecasts that he has a 2 or 3 paragraph disclaimer and bolded, ALL CAPS to not forward, reproduce his emails.

[Tireman4]

Yeah, it appears this one is trending towards the bust column....looking over this mornings models, at this time it looks like this is a marginal winter weather event, maybe winter weather advisory criteria for southeast Texas - temps barely down to freezing with less than 0.15 inch precip. With the warm ground temps over the weekend, don't see a lot of driving issues in and around Houston Metro tomorrow. I would be very surprised if they upgraded the watch to a warning.

Please do not say that. I am begging you. Last Friday, many folks felt like you and ventured out. It was a nightmare. Any ice can lots of damage. Just watch your wording. Folks need to be vigilant. They need to stay on top of things. Any ice can cause lots of headaches. I usually do not call folks out, but people read this and may take it to heart. Thanks.

[gboudx]

What is it with Houston and these warm noses? Is it the Heat Island thing?

It's not just Houston. We deal with the warm nose in Dallas too. Remember Icemargeddon in December? I believe the warm nose is mostly due to our proximity in the lower latitudes and warmer air coming out of a westerly direction. But I may be wrong or partially wrong.

[Ntxw]

What is it with Houston and these warm noses? Is it the Heat Island thing?

It's not just Houston. We deal with the warm nose in Dallas too. Remember Icemargeddon in December? I believe the warm nose is mostly due to our proximity in the lower latitudes and warmer air coming out of a westerly direction. But I may be wrong or partially wrong.

Nothing a bowling ball cold core ULL can't fix

[wxman57]

So as of right now it looks to be an icy mess for my area? Im determining rather or not I should go to work in the morning.

That depends on whether that will require passing over any bridges or overpasses. If the answer is yes, then expect them to be icy and possibly closed by afternoon. Surface streets may remain OK through the day, but expect major delays. I'd stay home.

[HouTXmetro]

are precip amounts greater than last event?

[Portastorm]

IMPORTANT NOTE

Any comments about this event being a "bust" are bordering on trolling. The event hasn't even started so calling it a "bust" is premature at best and trolling at worst. There is a potential here for a very serious winter weather event impacting large metropolitan areas and, thus, having negative impacts on many people. In addition to the thousands of members of this forum, we have as many visitors. All come here for crucial information in times like these. Neither I nor any other moderator and administrator will tolerate trolling or posts making ridiculous statements without factual support. Those posts only create confusion and hurt our attempts at keeping people properly informed.

Deletions and/or warnings will follow.

You've been duly noted.

[Snowman67]

So as of right now it looks to be an icy mess for my area? Im determining rather or not I should go to work in the morning.

That depends on whether that will require passing over any bridges or overpasses. If the answer is yes, then expect them to be icy and possibly closed by afternoon. Surface streets may remain OK through the day, but expect major delays. I'd stay home.

Do you feel that the NWS will put the Hou area under a winter storm warning with this event?

[Tireman4]

IMPORTANT NOTE

Any comments about this event being a "bust" are bordering on trolling. The event hasn't even started so calling it a "bust" is premature at best and trolling at worst. There is a potential here for a very serious winter weather event impacting large metropolitan areas and, thus, having negative impacts on many people. In addition to the thousands of members of this forum, we have as many visitors. All come here for crucial information in times like these. Neither I nor any other moderator and administrator will tolerate trolling or posts making ridiculous statements without factual support. Those posts only create confusion and hurt our attempts at keeping people properly informed.

Deletions and/or warnings will follow.

You've been duly noted.

To piggyback on this..( Houston Metro Folks), if Wxman 57 is staying home, what do you think that says? Be vigilant. Watch the news. Pay attention to the NWS. They know. Lastly, the pro mets on here can guide you through this. Thanks for the podium. Now onto your favorite drama on the PWC Channel. This morning, "Snow and the Champ Charger: A Match Made in Winter Heaven?

[TheProfessor]

The 6z gfs is borderline from having a major snowstorm for North Texas. It also keeps at least 1 inch of snow on the ground for the metroplex for a continuous 144 hours! So if the forecasted precipitation occurs after the cold, we could end up with record breaking snow on the ground for a record breaking number of days. The only problem is this is beyond the 7 day time period so it can only be taken with a grain of salt.