Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Ntxw]

12z GFS looks like the euro on the dry(er) side. Mostly light qpf and sleet/zr is the dominant type for SE Tx.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Those returns SW of El Paso coming in from the Pacific..... Anything we should be aware of?

[davidiowx]

Looks like the 12z GFS is trending a little drier for SE TX.

[WeatherDuck]

Those returns SW of El Paso coming in from the Pacific..... Anything we should be aware of?

Was this expected around El Paso?

[South Texas Storms]

I'm certainly not liking the latest trends in the models so far today. It looks like my chances of accumulating snowfall is going the wrong way. Hopefully I can still get a surprise 2 inches!

[orangeblood]

Yeah, it appears this one is trending towards the bust column....looking over this mornings models, at this time it looks like this is a marginal winter weather event, maybe winter weather advisory criteria for southeast Texas - temps barely down to freezing with less than 0.15 inch precip. With the warm ground temps over the weekend, don't see a lot of driving issues in and around Houston Metro tomorrow. I would be very surprised if they upgraded the watch to a warning.

Please do not say that. I am begging you. Last Friday, many folks felt like you and ventured out. It was a nightmare. Any ice can lots of damage. Just watch your wording. Folks need to be vigilant. They need to stay on top of things. Any ice can cause lots of headaches. I usually do not call folks out, but people read this and may take it to heart. Thanks.

The models were much more aggressive with last weeks event than they are with this one. The fact is that most every model is trending warmer and drier compared to previous runs when the NWS issued winter storm watches. I don't see any model close to winter storm warning criteria at this time (especially the more reliable ones) and is why I used the word 'bust'. IMO, a downgrade from a winter storm watch to borderline winter weather advisory criteria is in the bust category.

I'm not giving my opinion to lead people in the wrong direction, just attempting to interpret the evidence given. This is why we have disclaimers after making statements like this. I'm giving my opinion based on model interpretation and many years of experience following winter weather in Texas. You have to be very diligent when forecasting winter weather events such as this. There are downsides to hyping something up when clearly the models are going in the other direction - This happened in DFW in late November when forecasters stuck to their original forecasts when models began showing a less significant event. Well sure enough this event never really materialized and the Public took the next forecast of winter weather much less seriously (about a week later). Well it so happened that this next event was one of the worst ice storms to hit DFW in over 30 years and caught many people off guard.

The models are telling us something and I see no reason to ignore them because they showed something different a few days ago.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[dhweather]

What is it with Houston and these warm noses? Is it the Heat Island thing?

The Heat Island thing is more of a surface phenomena, due to lots of concrete and pavement, large numbers of population, industry, traffic, etc.

The warm nose occurs usually 3000 feet or higher in the atmosphere. Typically it is due to the shallow depth of cold air intrusions. Often cold air is from the surface to 3-5000 feet. It will get warmer and colder in levels above that, depending on wind directions at different levels of the atmosphere, among other things.

[Snowman67]

I'm certainly not liking the latest trends in the models so far today. It looks like my chances of accumulating snowfall is going the wrong way. Hopefully I can still get a surprise 2 inches!

Don't give up hope just yet. I can remember several years back we were in Waco visiting my parents and they were forecasted to get a good snow that afternoon. Once evening came, there was no snow and the forecast changed to " flurries with no accumulations". So we packed up and headed back to Tomball. I was about 90 miles SE of Waco when my mom calls and tells me that it started to snow. They ended up getting 3 inches. You just never know with these things.

[Tireman4]

[

I'm not giving my opinion to lead people in the wrong direction, just attempting to interpret the evidence given. This is why we have disclaimers after making statements like this. I'm giving my opinion based on model interpretation and many years of experience following winter weather in Texas. You have to be very diligent when forecasting winter weather events such as this. There are downsides to hyping something up when clearly the models are going in the other direction - This happened in DFW in late November when forecasters stuck to their original forecasts when models began showing a less significant event. Well sure enough this event never really materialized and the Public took the next forecast of winter weather much less seriously (about a week later). Well it so happened that this next event was one of the worst ice storms to hit DFW in over 30 years and caught many people off guard.

The models are telling us something and I see no reason to ignore them because they showed something different a few days ago.


I understand this. You understand this. We are grizzled veterans on this board. I know the disclaimer is down there. I respect that and your opinion. You have forgotten more than I know about weather. Simple truth. Fact. I am just a historian trying to make a living in this world. That being said, many folks will not see the disclaimer. You know that. They will cherry pick what you say and take for gospel. I was not trying to call you out. I RARELY ever do. It is just the statement you said about Houston metro traffic and this not being a big deal scared me. That is all. No harm no foul.

[TheProfessor]

I'm certainly not liking the latest trends in the models so far today. It looks like my chances of accumulating snowfall is going the wrong way. Hopefully I can still get a surprise 2 inches!

Don't give up hope just yet. I can remember several years back we were in Waco visiting my parents and they were forecasted to get a good snow that afternoon. Once evening came, there was no snow and the forecast changed to " flurries with no accumulations". So we packed up and headed back to Tomball. I was about 90 miles SE of Waco when my mom calls and tells me that it started to snow. They ended up getting 3 inches. You just never know with these things.

Yes, I have also had a few surprises after the models trended drier. Your almost at the point to where you can radar watch in order to see if the models didn't get a Handel on the moisture. Good luck.

[Snowman67]

Yeah, it appears this one is trending towards the bust column....looking over this mornings models, at this time it looks like this is a marginal winter weather event, maybe winter weather advisory criteria for southeast Texas - temps barely down to freezing with less than 0.15 inch precip. With the warm ground temps over the weekend, don't see a lot of driving issues in and around Houston Metro tomorrow. I would be very surprised if they upgraded the watch to a warning.

Please do not say that. I am begging you. Last Friday, many folks felt like you and ventured out. It was a nightmare. Any ice can lots of damage. Just watch your wording. Folks need to be vigilant. They need to stay on top of things. Any ice can cause lots of headaches. I usually do not call folks out, but people read this and may take it to heart. Thanks.

The models were much more aggressive with last weeks event than they are with this one. The fact is that most every model is trending warmer and drier compared to previous runs when the NWS issued winter storm watches. I don't see any model close to winter storm warning criteria at this time (especially the more reliable ones) and is why I used the word 'bust'. IMO, a downgrade from a winter storm watch to borderline winter weather advisory criteria is in the bust category.

I'm not giving my opinion to lead people in the wrong direction, just attempting to interpret the evidence given. This is why we have disclaimers after making statements like this. I'm giving my opinion based on model interpretation and many years of experience following winter weather in Texas. You have to be very diligent when forecasting winter weather events such as this. There are downsides to hyping something up when clearly the models are going in the other direction - This happened in DFW in late November when forecasters stuck to their original forecasts when models began showing a less significant event. Well sure enough this event never really materialized and the Public took the next forecast of winter weather much less seriously (about a week later). Well it so happened that this next event was one of the worst ice storms to hit DFW in over 30 years and caught many people off guard.

The models are telling us something and I see no reason to ignore them because they showed something different a few days ago.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Did the Winter Storm Watch for the Houston area get downgraded?

[dhweather]

Right on cue (about 24 hours out) the NAM goes to what the GFS has been showing for days, this is starting to get comical how much that model has been dominating the weather world lately. NAM is drier and even a little warmer for Houston tomorrow.

Anyone that has lived in Texas for their whole lives could have predicted this, though. Almost every winter event ever hyped up ends up being a bust. I grew up in Dallas, and I think every event that was ever hyped was a bust. It was the non-hyped events that were the big events.

Well, there is some truth to this. You've got to remember though, for wintry precip to happen, particularly this far south, there has to be several things that have to happen just right. First you have to have cold air, but not too cold, because that will dry the column out. Then you've got to have moisture available, again, if its too cold, there won't be any. Then we need something to provide lift, hope there's no pesky cap in place and so on.

There's plenty of times that rain chances during the spring and summer are a "bust" too, but because wintry precip is special to most, and a royal pain for others, it draws more emotions out of people.

As Joe B says, enjoy your weather, it's the only weather you've got.

[Portastorm]

Did the Winter Storm Watch for the Houston area get downgraded?

Nope. Still in place. The comment you highlighted above was merely the opinion of one of our members who is not a meteorologist.

[wxman57]

Did the Winter Storm Watch for the Houston area get downgraded?

Definitely not. We are expecting a winter storm. The main question is the precipitation type. Currently it's looking more like sleet and freezing rain will cause very treacherous travel across SE TX tomorrow. It's unclear whether there will be any snow involved. But sleet and freezing rain is most certainly "winter weather".

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...
BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

The models were much more aggressive with last weeks event than they are with this one. The fact is that most every model is trending warmer and drier compared to previous runs when the NWS issued winter storm watches. I don't see any model close to winter storm warning criteria at this time (especially the more reliable ones) and is why I used the word 'bust'. IMO, a downgrade from a winter storm watch to borderline winter weather advisory criteria is in the bust category.

I'm not giving my opinion to lead people in the wrong direction, just attempting to interpret the evidence given. This is why we have disclaimers after making statements like this. I'm giving my opinion based on model interpretation and many years of experience following winter weather in Texas. You have to be very diligent when forecasting winter weather events such as this. There are downsides to hyping something up when clearly the models are going in the other direction - This happened in DFW in late November when forecasters stuck to their original forecasts when models began showing a less significant event. Well sure enough this event never really materialized and the Public took the next forecast of winter weather much less seriously (about a week later). Well it so happened that this next event was one of the worst ice storms to hit DFW in over 30 years and caught many people off guard.

The models are telling us something and I see no reason to ignore them because they showed something different a few days ago.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

I understand what you're saying. But on the flip side I know you're talking about tx specifically but in south la, especially SE in my area, the models busted in the total opposite way with last weeks storm.Everyone of them and mets included kept showing how dry it was going to be and evaporate everything before it got here and we would be lucky to get flurries and a trace of ice overnight that would be gone by mid morning with temps warming to low 40's. Well low and behold snow and sleet broke out over central LA early wednesday and crept southeast. Had 18hrs of straight sleet freezing drizzle and think it was 34 hrs below freezing with some roads closed til lunchtime Saturday. Moral of the story is not trust any model regardless what they show or don't show

[wxman57]

It's looking colder and wetter this time around for SE LA. You'll get winter weather, and quite possibly some significant snow accumulations, though snow is not a guarantee yet.

[orangeblood]

Did the Winter Storm Watch for the Houston area get downgraded?

Nope. Still in place. The comment you highlighted above was merely the opinion of one of our members who is not a meteorologist.

I apologize for not clarifying....unless the Euro comes in much wetter, I would expect the winter storm watch to be downgraded to a winter weather advisory.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[BigB0882]

It's looking colder and wetter this time around for SE LA. You'll get winter weather, and quite possibly some significant snow accumulations, though snow is not a guarantee yet.

I am quoting this just because you said it.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

It's looking colder and wetter this time around for SE LA. You'll get winter weather, and quite possibly some significant snow accumulations, though snow is not a guarantee yet.

Oh I'm not disagreeing with you wxman, I know we're going to get something. Just not looking as historic and record breaking as it was yesterday. And I sure would rather have snow than an inch of ice.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Did the Winter Storm Watch for the Houston area get downgraded?

Nope. Still in place. The comment you highlighted above was merely the opinion of one of our members who is not a meteorologist.

I apologize for not clarifying....unless the Euro comes in much wetter, I would expect the winter storm watch to be downgraded to a winter weather advisory.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Warning criteria is anything greater than .10 inches... We will have a Warning issued shortly.