Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

Winter Weather Discussion

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bella_may
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Re:

#4761 Postby bella_may » Mon Jan 27, 2014 9:12 am

Syx6sic wrote:Wow here in norfolk they are saying from a dusting to over a foot they just not sure how much just yet


Lol. Welcome to the club....
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cycloneye
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#4762 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 27, 2014 9:17 am

Here is the 12z NAM:

24 hours:

Image

36 hours:

Image

48 hours:

Image
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#4763 Postby timmeister » Mon Jan 27, 2014 10:08 am

Not trying to get off topic with the approaching Gulf Winter Storm this week, but the 06Z GFS is showing a major Ice Storm for the Deep South on Feb 5th and 6th. Let's pray that doesn't transpire!

Image

Image
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#4764 Postby BigB0882 » Mon Jan 27, 2014 10:10 am

That is far enough out to not worry about it. A 3rd storm would be unreal.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#4765 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 27, 2014 10:12 am

:uarrow: Is fine to post about events not related to this week's wintry event as this thread made by Ivan is to discuss all related to the Deep South winter.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#4766 Postby thatwhichisnt » Mon Jan 27, 2014 10:15 am

As someone living in BR, this is going to be fun to watch unfold.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#4767 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Jan 27, 2014 10:24 am

Anxious to see the 12z GFS, hopefully the trend of lesser QPF will stop as I'd really like to see several inches of snow! I am concerned over freezing rain I hope everyone is aware of this situation and stays off the roads tomorrow as much as possible!
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#4768 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 27, 2014 10:30 am

12z GFS is running. I will post some graphics of the run in this post so you have to refresh to see them as I post the different hours.

18 hours:

Image

24 hours:

Image

36 hours:

Image

Image

48 hours:

Image

72 hours:

Image
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#4769 Postby thatwhichisnt » Mon Jan 27, 2014 10:32 am

Cameron and Lafayette schools are closed Tuesday and Wednesday from what I am hearing.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#4770 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:10 am

This is Dr Jeff Masters discussion about the Deep South wintry event.

Nasty ice storm for the Deep South

An area of low pressure will track along the Gulf Coast over the next two days, moving east-northeast to a position off the coast of South Carolina on Tuesday night. With cold air firmly entrenched over the deep south, a significant winter storm is expected from Southern Louisiana to Eastern North Carolina. The anti-fun starts in New Orleans Monday night, when rain will change over to freezing rain. Ice accumulations of 1/4" - 1/2" are possible along a swath from Southeast Louisiana through Southern Mississippi, Southern Alabama, the Northwest Florida Panhandle, Southern Georgia, Southern South Carolina, and Eastern North Carolina though Wednesday morning. Snows of 2 - 4" are possible just to the north of the freezing rain swath. This storm has the potential to cause significant damage to trees and power lines, resulting in widespread power outages. Travel will be very dangerous in the areas affected by the heaviest freezing rain and snow.
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#4771 Postby bella_may » Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:10 am

Pretty good GFS run I'd say. Surface temps looked colder
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#4772 Postby Javlin » Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:13 am

On the Nam is Yellow ice?and out of the two is the GFS/Nam which has a better rating?
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#4773 Postby bella_may » Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:42 am

Found this picture. Thought it could help some of you! Sorry I don't know how to upload the picture. This is just snow accumulations! http://www.jamesspann.com/wordpress/wp- ... .06-AM.png
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#4774 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:45 am

bella_may wrote:Found this picture. Thought it could help some of you! Sorry I don't know how to upload the picture. This is just snow accumulations! http://www.jamesspann.com/wordpress/wp- ... .06-AM.png


I uploaded it for you. :) You can upload images at tinypic.

http://tinypic.com/

Image
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Re:

#4775 Postby BigB0882 » Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:47 am

Javlin wrote:On the Nam is Yellow ice?and out of the two is the GFS/Nam which has a better rating?


Lately I would say the GFS. The NAM has a tendency to overdo QPF and coincidentally or not, it shows the most QPF of most models. However, with our last system NONE of them predicted what SELA got. Some people say the GFS did the best but does it really matter which model did the best when they all missed it? That is kind of like a consolation prize for being the best loser. lol
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#4776 Postby cigtyme » Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:53 am

Terrebonne Parish schools closed tomorrow awaiting decision on Wednesday. Hope my boss does the same, Don't want to be stranded with all these bridges down here
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#4777 Postby bella_may » Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:55 am

cycloneye wrote:
bella_may wrote:Found this picture. Thought it could help some of you! Sorry I don't know how to upload the picture. This is just snow accumulations! http://www.jamesspann.com/wordpress/wp- ... .06-AM.png


I uploaded it for you. :) You can upload images at tinypic.


Thank you!
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SeGaBob

#4778 Postby SeGaBob » Mon Jan 27, 2014 12:33 pm

Now we are only supposed to get 1-2 inches of snow (which is still fine)and possibly over a 1/2 inch of ice. Are there any models that show more snow accumulation than that? Meanwhile it's supposed to be 67 here today...it may take a while for ice/snow to start accumulating around here. Just my opinion...
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SeGaBob

#4779 Postby SeGaBob » Mon Jan 27, 2014 1:02 pm

Now they are saying my area will be lucky to get 1 inch of snow... Why is the NWS minimizing this event around here? Have the models really backed off that much?
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#4780 Postby SunnyThoughts » Mon Jan 27, 2014 1:03 pm

Mobile county public schools will be closed tomorrow and Wednesday...no word yet on Baldwin county, or any counties in Florida. They will all make their decisions later in the day.
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