Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Snowman67]

Well this certainly looks interesting!

http://hp6.wright-weather.com/wrf_nmmeast-radar-loop_1hour.gif

The link won't load. They may be prohibiting external links.

It's loading for me.

[Portastorm]

12z CMC (Canadian) is in and it looks slightly wetter for South/Southeast Texas as compared to its 0z run.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

[BigB0882]

I have a question about how these models work. Let's say you look at a time increment and it shows you receiving .25 QPF. Then you go to the next time increment (let's say 3 hours later) and it shows you again in the .25 range. Does that mean you just add those two increments or is it carrying over what happened earlier? I have never understood how that works when reading the maps. If it is carrying over, then how does it know when to no longer show any precip? What is the cut off?

[wxman57]

I have a question about how these models work. Let's say you look at a time increment and it shows you receiving .25 QPF. Then you go to the next time increment (let's say 3 hours later) and it shows you again in the .25 range. Does that mean you just add those two increments or is it carrying over what happened earlier? I have never understood how that works when reading the maps. If it is carrying over, then how does it know when to no longer show any precip? What is the cut off?

Yes, those are 3hr precipitation amounts. You add them together to get total precip.

[ronyan]

I believe you have to add the QPF for each timeframe to get the total, and that at least on a meteogram the model reports of precip are from the previous time period. I'll let a pro or someone more informed clarify.

[dhweather]

The extended 12Z GFS has lost the winter love for the DFW metroplex.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im about to give up on the models or 'researching' this event till the radar lights up. To much seesaw action going on. I expect an 'event' for us. Simple as that. I'll be back on later fellas!

[BigB0882]

I have a question about how these models work. Let's say you look at a time increment and it shows you receiving .25 QPF. Then you go to the next time increment (let's say 3 hours later) and it shows you again in the .25 range. Does that mean you just add those two increments or is it carrying over what happened earlier? I have never understood how that works when reading the maps. If it is carrying over, then how does it know when to no longer show any precip? What is the cut off?

Yes, those are 3hr precipitation amounts. You add them together to get total precip.

Thanks. Then I don't understand the GFS maps vs. the output I see. The map shows us in the .1 and sometimes .25 range and this is in more than one frame. So even if you take the low end you get .35 QPF but on the output it shows far less precip than that. Barely .20 Are the images not able to be as exact?

[Lagreeneyes03]

The 6z gfs is borderline from having a major snowstorm for North Texas. It also keeps at least 1 inch of snow on the ground for the metroplex for a continuous 144 hours! So if the forecasted precipitation occurs after the cold, we could end up with record breaking snow on the ground for a record breaking number of days. The only problem is this is beyond the 7 day time period so it can only be taken with a grain of salt.

I was looking at that myself, If it keeps it consistently then game on. There better not be a warm nose to ruin things, unless that nose wants to be punched!

[Rgv20]

12z CMC (Canadian) is in and it looks slightly wetter for South/Southeast Texas as compared to its 0z run.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

Much much wetter for the RGV with Temperatures in the mid 30s Wednesday Morning..

[Cuda17]

I think some of the talk of "drier" is confusing folks on this board. We should probably be careful with our wording, as stated before. Drier does not mean DRY! From everything I'm seeing and listening too, we will have winter weather here in SE Texas. That being said , the trend does look to be more ice/sleet than snow because of the DRIER and warmer air way up above our heads, the infamous warm nose. Please, any of our pros on here, correct me if I'm wrong.

[davidiowx]

Cleveland ISD has just cancelled classes for tomorrow and Wednesday per ABC13.

[orangeblood]

I have a question about how these models work. Let's say you look at a time increment and it shows you receiving .25 QPF. Then you go to the next time increment (let's say 3 hours later) and it shows you again in the .25 range. Does that mean you just add those two increments or is it carrying over what happened earlier? I have never understood how that works when reading the maps. If it is carrying over, then how does it know when to no longer show any precip? What is the cut off?

Yes, those are 3hr precipitation amounts. You add them together to get total precip.

Thanks. Then I don't understand the GFS maps vs. the output I see. The map shows us in the .1 and sometimes .25 range and this is in more than one frame. So even if you take the low end you get .35 QPF but on the output it shows far less precip than that. Barely .20 Are the images not able to be as exact?

GFS text output for Baton Rouge showing over a quarter of an inch qpf with temps below freezing, 850 temps close to freezing as well - probably sleet/snow in that area

[TheProfessor]

The extended 12Z GFS has lost the winter love for the DFW metroplex.

http://img822.imageshack.us/img822/5949/32n7.png

Remember we are still over a week out from this potential event. Anything could happen. So don't lose hope.

[mcheer23]

All of Wharton County Junior College campuses are closed tomorrow as well

[dhweather]

The extended 12Z GFS has lost the winter love for the DFW metroplex.

http://img822.imageshack.us/img822/5949/32n7.png

Remember we are still over a week out from this potential event. Anything could happen. So don't lose hope.

Certainly not - I'm sure it will flip flop a few times this week. I was hoping for more consistency - then we could get wound up big time, and go buy Kroger out of milk and bread!

[ndale]

Ok, may be a dumb question here from a novice but since we are so concerned about how wet/dry this system is, is there a time frame we may start picking up water vapor or radar images they will help in addition to model data?

[Portastorm]

Ok, may be a dumb question here from a novice but since we are so concerned about how wet/dry this system is, is there a time frame we may start picking up water vapor or radar images they will help in addition to model data?

We already can. Check out the GOES West satellite/water vapor images and compare them to the GFS 500mb vorticity maps. It'll give you a good idea on how accurate (or inaccurate) the GFS is. So far, the GFS appears spot on.

[ndale]

Ok, may be a dumb question here from a novice but since we are so concerned about how wet/dry this system is, is there a time frame we may start picking up water vapor or radar images they will help in addition to model data?

We already can. Check out the GOES West satellite/water vapor images and compare them to the GFS 500mb vorticity maps. It'll give you a good idea on how accurate (or inaccurate) the GFS is. So far, the GFS appears spot on.

Ok, thanks.

[downsouthman1]

Ok, may be a dumb question here from a novice but since we are so concerned about how wet/dry this system is, is there a time frame we may start picking up water vapor or radar images they will help in addition to model data?

We already can. Check out the GOES West satellite/water vapor images and compare them to the GFS 500mb vorticity maps. It'll give you a good idea on how accurate (or inaccurate) the GFS is. So far, the GFS appears spot on.

Ok, thanks.

http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/products/wx ... 0mbwv.html