Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Pearl River]

St Tammany Parish schools closed tomorrow and Wednesday.

[bella_may]

Now they are saying my area will be lucky to get 1 inch of snow... Why is the NWS minimizing this event around here? Have the models really backed off that much?

You're kind of in between the system. Head up I-95 a little and you should see PLENTY!

[Jag95]

Now they are saying my area will be lucky to get 1 inch of snow... Why is the NWS minimizing this event around here? Have the models really backed off that much?

These systems never play out exactly how the models predict. There's really no way to tell who's going to get what except in general. You could get nothing, or you could get lucky. IMO, Statesboro could very well get lucky. I almost have as much fun watching how these things develop as I do building a snowman.

[cycloneye]

The 12z ECMWF has in general increased the snowfall amounts from Baton Rouge to just north of Mobile, over to Macon, and Columbia continuing northeastward. I can't post the graphic because is from Wxbell that is not authorized.

[bella_may]

The 12z ECMWF has in general increased the snowfall amounts from Baton Rouge to just north of Mobile, over to Macon, and Columbia continuing northeastward. I can't post the graphic because is from Wxbell that is not authorized.

Increased as in how much? Thanks!

[petit_bois]

Looks like most of the snow will fall between Gulfport MS and Spanish Fort AL.
Likely 4 inches.

[cycloneye]

The 12z ECMWF has in general increased the snowfall amounts from Baton Rouge to just north of Mobile, over to Macon, and Columbia continuing northeastward. I can't post the graphic because is from Wxbell that is not authorized.

Increased as in how much? Thanks!

Around 2 inches for Baton Rouge/Mobile and the Western Fla Panhandle around 3.5 inches.

[Steve]

I don't really follow winter weather that much, because down here in the deep south, we don't really get much besides cold. I did follow along for the Christmas 2004 event. I think everyone who was here back then and everyon else who is new since 2004 needs to realize how absolutely difficult it is for meteorolgists and/or modeling to accurately depict a winter storm moving ENE across the Gulf (especially with upper level energy) and what its impacts will be on any specific area of the Gulf Coast. I stayed up all night Christmas Eve 2004 just trying to figure out what might happen. I learned in that thread that most pro mets find it next to impossible to accurately say what's going to happen for a given locale and that models are hit and miss at best. How far north is the system (relatively)? How much precip overrides the cold? What kind of lift is available? What is the tradjectory of the low? These are things that modeling or forecasters can interpret, but until they actually happen, it's all guesses. For people who think they're in the crosshairs, you might get nothing. For those who think they will be spared, you could get dumped on. Also, with microbursts (since I don't know a better term) and snow lines that set up randomly, nothing is really sophisticated enough to anticipate exactly how that will or might work out. Some of the short term models (RUC/Rapid Update Cycle) can be useful as once in a while as they might pick up something that the globals missed because they are updated every hour.

Main key now is just to sit back and wait. There's a pretty good chance that millions of us will be impacted in some way. Some will be stranded by icy roads, some will lose power, some will have snow and make a party out of it. But whatever you get, just make sure you're prepared for a few days in case you get stuck at home. Have water, food, clean blankets (in case you lose power and don't have an alternative source of heat such as a fireplace) and such for whatever you need for a couple of days of hunkering down if it becomes necessary for you do to so. That's about the best and most realistic advice you will get.

Steve

[bella_may]

The 12z ECMWF has in general increased the snowfall amounts from Baton Rouge to just north of Mobile, over to Macon, and Columbia continuing northeastward. I can't post the graphic because is from Wxbell that is not authorized.

Increased as in how much? Thanks!

Around 2 inches for Baton Rouge/Mobile and the Western Fla Panhandle around 3.5 inches.

I believe the euro was the only model holding back on snowfall totals. So this is good!

[BigB0882]

The euro gives us the first bit of good news today. I will take it!

[cycloneye]

You can see one of the players that will contribute to this upcoming wintry event and is that upper low in Baja.

[timmeister]

Pine Belt School Closings

Posted: Jan 27, 2014 10:15 AM CST
Updated: Jan 27, 2014 12:51 PM CST

The following is a list of schools in the Pine Belt that will be closed because of freezing weather conditions including ice and snow during the week starting on Monday, January 27, 2014.

Hattiesburg
• Sacred Heart - Closed Tuesday, pending rest of week
Colleges and Universities
• William Carey University - Closed Tuesday, pending rest of week
• PRCC - Closed Tuesday and Wednesday
Laurel
• Laurel Schools - Closed Tuesday, pending rest of week.
Lamar County
• All Schools - Closed Tuesday, pending rest of week.
Jones County
• All Schools - Closed Tuesday, pending rest of week.
Forrest County
• All Schools - Closed Tuesday, pending rest of week.
Lumberton
• Closed Tuesday, pending rest of week.
Greene County
• All Schools - Closed Tuesday, pending rest of week.
Marion County
• All Schools - Closed Tuesday, pending rest of week.
Wayne County
• All Schools - Closed Tuesday, pending the rest of the week
Salem Christian School Collins
• Closed Tuesday, pending rest of the week

[Lane]

UPDATED MONDAY, JAN 27 AT 12:55 PM
Autauga County Schools: Dismiss 11 a.m. Tuesday, closed Wednesday
Camellia Baptist Daycare, Prattville: Close 11 a.m. Tuesday, closed Wednesday
Crenshaw Christian Academy: Closed Tuesday and Wednesday
Elmore County Schools: Dismiss 11 a.m. Tuesday, closed Wednesday
Kiddie College, Prattville: Close 11 a.m. Tuesday, closed Wednesday
Prattville Wesleyan Preschool: Close 10 a.m. Tuesday, closed Wednesday
Russell County Schools: Dismiss at noon Tuesday, closed Wednesday, resume 10 a.m. Thursday
Tallassee City Schools: Closed Tuesday and Wednesday

[SunnyThoughts]

SAnta Rosa county schools are closed tomorrow and Wednesday...Escambia county making decision shortly...imquite sure they will do the same. These are Florida counties, Mobile county and I believe a few counties in MIssissippi are closed as well.

[petit_bois]

Baldwin County AL schools closed Tuesday... thinking about Wednesday

[Steve]

Oh and for some personal experiences, there were 2 times we were absolutely sure we would get snow. Once was 77-78 sitting in class watching the dark grey clouds moving in from the north. We didn't even see a flake. Then in the late 90's, there was a storm (one that ended up dropping 2-3" of snow in Mobile) where there was snow all around the City of New Orleans and as close as Laplace, but the precipitation just jumped over the city and started snowing again in Slidell. We didn't even get flurries, but we were surrounded by several 1"+ amounts to the north, east, south and west. This will be a play it by ear event with the only probable certainty is that most everyone on the north central and northeastern Gulf Coast will get some type of frozen precip, mostly beginning with freezing rain late tonight or tomorrow. Just be prepared for whatever.

[SeGaBob]

Thanks for the responses related to my earlier posts... I don't mean to sound so negative. I do hope someone gets it good though.

[windnrain]

Cycloneye: someone in the other thread said ECMWF precip is down. Conflicting reports, shed light please?

[MississippiWx]

12z Euro run is snowiest yet for North - Central Gulf Coast. 2-3 inches from Baton Rouge through Alabama.

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye: someone in the other thread said ECMWF precip is down. Conflicting reports, shed light please?

I sent the graphic via private message to you.