Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Big O]

Well this certainly looks interesting!

http://hp6.wright-weather.com/wrf_nmmeast-radar-loop_1hour.gif

If it only it would verify. It has some action for me and RGV20, as well.

[Red Raider fan]

I think NWS is down playing this event, on previous page, downsouthman1 posted a map with motion, it shows the ULL coming down the Baja California to Mexico and pumping some significant precip over Texas, unless i'm seeing this wrong will someone verify and correct me if i'm wrong please. Trying to keep up hope.

[texas1836]

I hope I can post this...


https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid ... =1&theater

So let me ask you this. With the cold run-off into the Gulf of Mexico, can the cooler water mixed with the warmer gulf water cause any change in weather? I see how it works on a large scale (Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans), but does it change things on a smaller scale? Just curious.

[Portastorm]

Even though it's a low-resolution depiction, the 12z Euro on the Penn State E-wall site to me looks like it has a bit more pronounced moisture levels along the Texas coast as well as mid-level moisture (700mb level) compared to its 0z run. Those of you with access to the higher-resolution Euro ... I'd be curious to know your thoughts.

It ain't much but there is a slight "wetter" (i.e. a little more precip) trend from 0z to 12z with both the CMC and Euro.

[downsouthman1]

I think NWS is down playing this event, on previous page, downsouthman1 posted a map with motion, it shows the ULL coming down the Baja California to Mexico and pumping some significant precip over Texas, unless i'm seeing this wrong will someone verify and correct me if i'm wrong please. Trying to keep up hope.

It's not significant precip. Just some mid-upper level moisture. But Dewpoints are very low. About 15-20 degrees lower than they were last event. I just don't see precip reaching the ground anywhere where Dewpoint is under 10.

Edit: Up until a few days ago, I would've said 15 degree Dewpoint. But I saw that occur out around Brady, TX where it was snowing with a Dewpoint around or under 15 degrees. But I don't believe they had much accumulation, if any.

[Red Raider fan]

Ok thanks downsouthman, just busted my bubble lol

[Wntrwthrguy]

Porta, any promising developments for Austin with the latest model runs?

[downsouthman1]

Ok thanks downsouthman, just busted my bubble lol

My apologies. That was not my intent.

[Red Raider fan]

I know, nothing you can do about it, thats just how it goes, it's all good.

[Portastorm]

Porta, any promising developments for Austin with the latest model runs?

Nah, not really. Some "minor" trends which are a bit encouraging but nothing really noteworthy in my book. I think IF we see any wintry precip it'll be very light and brief. The 9z SREF was the only model I have seen which remains somewhat bullish on the event for the AUS metro area. If that run verified, we'd see an event similar to last Friday with maybe a bit more precip.

A private sector met suggested this morning that we are in the "genesis" area for precip and that can make for a tricky forecast. In other words, when the precip starts to pop up in the state it's probably going to begin in our area as compared to the last event in which we were kinda in the middle.

I don't know ... all in all, I'm not very optimistic. But I hold out hope that there may be a few proverbial flies in the ointment.

[Tireman4]

Porta, any promising developments for Austin with the latest model runs?

Nah, not really. Some "minor" trends which are a bit encouraging but nothing really noteworthy in my book. I think IF we see any wintry precip it'll be very light and brief. The 9z SREF was the only model I have seen which remains somewhat bullish on the event for the AUS metro area. If that run verified, we'd see an event similar to last Friday with maybe a bit more precip.

A private sector met suggested this morning that we are in the "genesis" area for precip and that can make for a tricky forecast. In other words, when the precip starts to pop up in the state it's probably going to begin in our area as compared to the last event in which we were kinda in the middle.

I don't know ... all in all, I'm not very optimistic. But I hold out hope that there may be a few proverbial flies in the ointment.

Keep hope alive Porta. Keep hope alive.

[orangeblood]

To summarize this mornings model runs for Houston Intercontinental Airport:

Text output for both the Euro and NAM runs show 0.07 inch QPF with temps staying slightly above freezing the entire event while the GFS has 0.10 inch QPF with temps at freezing briefly at the onset then rise as event unfolds. The time of day this storm is moving through isn't helping things either - majority of precip falling during peak sunlight hours. Thickness values support a mix of sleet and snow but looks like accumulations will be confined to predominately grass and rooftops, roads should melt frozen precip on contact due to a combination of warm weather over the weekend and sunlight. Don't shoot the messenger but I don't believe this storm would meet winter storm warning criteria for most in southeast Texas. But Louisiana is a difficult ballgame, much more precip with temps colder

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Ntxw]

Even though it's a low-resolution depiction, the 12z Euro on the Penn State E-wall site to me looks like it has a bit more pronounced moisture levels along the Texas coast as well as mid-level moisture (700mb level) compared to its 0z run. Those of you with access to the higher-resolution Euro ... I'd be curious to know your thoughts.

It ain't much but there is a slight "wetter" (i.e. a little more precip) trend from 0z to 12z with both the CMC and Euro.

Maybe a tad but the difference is fairly negligible still not too much difference from 0z. Up to 0.10 for houston area and maybe 0.20 far north and east.

[orangeblood]

Porta - you are going to love the setup at the end of the 12Z Euro, 1043 HP sitting over the northern panhandle above snowcover a foot deep with moisture streaming into south Texas from Mexico

[ROCK]

To summarize this mornings model runs for Houston Intercontinental Airport:

Text output for both the Euro and NAM runs show 0.07 inch QPF with temps staying slightly above freezing the entire event while the GFS has 0.10 inch QPF with temps at freezing briefly at the onset then rise as event unfolds. The time of day this storm is moving through isn't helping things either - majority of precip falling during peak sunlight hours. Thickness values support a mix of sleet and snow but looks like accumulations will be confined to predominately grass and rooftops, roads should melt frozen precip on contact due to a combination of warm weather over the weekend and sunlight. Don't shoot the messenger but I don't believe this storm would meet winter storm warning criteria for most in southeast Texas. But Louisiana is a difficult ballgame, much more precip with temps colder

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

do you have a source for this info? or just your thoughts? I am seeing lower temps with significant overpass icing...

[orangeblood]

To summarize this mornings model runs for Houston Intercontinental Airport:

Text output for both the Euro and NAM runs show 0.07 inch QPF with temps staying slightly above freezing the entire event while the GFS has 0.10 inch QPF with temps at freezing briefly at the onset then rise as event unfolds. The time of day this storm is moving through isn't helping things either - majority of precip falling during peak sunlight hours. Thickness values support a mix of sleet and snow but looks like accumulations will be confined to predominately grass and rooftops, roads should melt frozen precip on contact due to a combination of warm weather over the weekend and sunlight. Don't shoot the messenger but I don't believe this storm would meet winter storm warning criteria for most in southeast Texas. But Louisiana is a difficult ballgame, much more precip with temps colder

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

do you have a source for this info? or just your thoughts? I am seeing lower temps with significant overpass icing...

Well both, the source is text output for the models mentioned above and my interpretation on how the storm will unfold for IAH. Not sure where you're seeing lower temps and how do you define "significant overpass icing" ?

[Tejas89]

South Louisiana the big winner no doubt. Just based on reading NWS discussions over there.

Morgan City.. 22 Tuesday night with a 70% chance of snow. lol that's a once in a blue moon forecast for them.

[ROCK]

To summarize this mornings model runs for Houston Intercontinental Airport:

Text output for both the Euro and NAM runs show 0.07 inch QPF with temps staying slightly above freezing the entire event while the GFS has 0.10 inch QPF with temps at freezing briefly at the onset then rise as event unfolds. The time of day this storm is moving through isn't helping things either - majority of precip falling during peak sunlight hours. Thickness values support a mix of sleet and snow but looks like accumulations will be confined to predominately grass and rooftops, roads should melt frozen precip on contact due to a combination of warm weather over the weekend and sunlight. Don't shoot the messenger but I don't believe this storm would meet winter storm warning criteria for most in southeast Texas. But Louisiana is a difficult ballgame, much more precip with temps colder

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

do you have a source for this info? or just your thoughts? I am seeing lower temps with significant overpass icing...

Well both, the source is text output for the models mentioned above and my interpretation on how the storm will unfold for IAH. Not sure where you're seeing lower temps and how do you define "significant overpass icing" ?

hmmm, I guess icing of a overpass with people driving over them is not significant? Latest guidance I have seen is below freezing temps like around 28-30F....but I guess we will see as the NWS just hoisted another Winter Storm Warning to our east...lol

[orangeblood]

CPC outlook for Feb. 3-9...exactly what most on this board want to see - Below normal Temps with Above normal Precip

[downsouthman1]

CPC outlook for Feb. 3-9...exactly what most on this board want to see - Below normal Temps with Above normal Precip

I don't wanna see it. I'm picking up my girl from DFW airport on Feb 3rd & will not be traveling out of the Metroplex till the 4th, heading back south.