Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
windnrain
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 670
Joined: Wed Aug 10, 2005 1:19 pm
Location: Baton Rouge

#4801 Postby windnrain » Mon Jan 27, 2014 2:24 pm

Well guys, I can confirm, ECMWF, regardless of QPR predicts 2.2" of snow for BR. I'll be happy with that.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145369
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#4802 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 27, 2014 2:45 pm

From the New Orleans NWS a Winter Storm Warning is in effect from 6 AM CST Tuesday.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
140 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TOMORROW...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TODAY
AND IS SITUATED SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION
BACK INTO THE AREA. WITH A VERY COLD AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE...
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO FALL AS FREEZING RAIN...SLEET OR SNOW ACROSS
MOST OR ALL OF THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS FROM ICING DUE TO FREEZING RAIN AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT
PROBLEMS WITH TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES FALLING.

LAZ034>037-039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ06 8>071-077-080>082-280345-
/O.UPG.KLIX.WS.A.0001.140128T1200Z-140129T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KLIX.WS.W.0001.140128T1200Z-140129T1200Z/
POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-WASHINGTON-
ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-
LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-
UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-
UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW ROADS...LIVONIA...
ST. FRANCISVILLE...JACKSON...CLINTON...GREENSBURG...MO NTPELIER...
BOGALUSA...FRANKLINTON...SLIDELL...MANDEVILLE...C OVINGTON...
LACOMBE...PLAQUEMINE...WHITE CASTLE...PORT ALLEN...ADDIS...
BRUSLY...BATON ROUGE...GONZALES...DONALDSONVILLE...
DENHAM SPRINGS...WALKER...PIERRE PART...LABADIEVILLE...
PAINCOURTVILLE...LUTCHER...GRAMERCY...LAPLACE...R ESERVE...
THIBODAUX...RACELAND...LAROSE...DESTREHAN...NORCO ...METAIRIE...
KENNER...NEW ORLEANS...BELLE CHASSE...CHALMETTE...VIOLET...
HOUMA...BAYOU CANE...CHAUVIN...DULAC...MONTEGUT...GALLIANO...
CUT OFF...GOLDEN MEADOW...PORT SULPHUR...EMPIRE...YSCLOSKEY...
AMITE...KENTWOOD...HAMMOND...PONCHATOULA...CENTRE VILLE...
WOODVILLE...GLOSTER...LIBERTY...CROSBY...MCCOMB.. .TYLERTOWN...
PICAYUNE...BAY ST. LOUIS...WAVELAND...DIAMONDHEAD...GULFPORT...
BILOXI...PASCAGOULA...OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS POINT...GAUTIER...
ST. MARTIN
140 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS
NO LONGER IN EFFECT.


* TIMING...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS
DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO
SLEET AND SNOW GENERALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED IN ALL LOCATIONS WITH
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLY NEARING ONE HALF INCH SOUTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND IN THE METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AREA. SNOW
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT
LOUISIANA PARISHES. ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNED AREA...SNOW AMOUNTS
OF NEAR TO LESS THAN ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...A HARD
FREEZE IS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT...DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME ESPECIALLY
HAZARDOUS BEGINNING BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH MID-
MORNING. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE
ABOVE FREEZING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF TIME...HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. IN
ADDITION...ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS WITH POWER LINES AND
TREE LIMBS BECOMING TOO HEAVY TO MAINTAIN THEIR INTEGRITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET...
AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

$$

98/SO
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

BigB0882
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2284
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 12:08 am
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Contact:

#4803 Postby BigB0882 » Mon Jan 27, 2014 2:52 pm

I was wondering if the warning would occur. When was the last time we were in one of those? 2008? Not sure if they even saw that event coming, though.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145369
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#4804 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 27, 2014 3:02 pm

TWC has designated this storm as Winter Storm LEON.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Syx6sic
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 84
Age: 41
Joined: Wed Jun 05, 2013 12:11 pm
Location: Virginia beach VA

#4805 Postby Syx6sic » Mon Jan 27, 2014 3:11 pm

They are showing possible 8 inches according to the weather guy here in norfolk guess now it's wait and see
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

windnrain
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 670
Joined: Wed Aug 10, 2005 1:19 pm
Location: Baton Rouge

Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#4806 Postby windnrain » Mon Jan 27, 2014 3:14 pm

Man, I am waiting anxiously for the next round of models. It'll be the last round before the cold starts to kick in. I suppose 0z will be the true "last round", but for I really feel like the next set of models are our last and only hope.
0 likes   

TideJoe
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 155
Joined: Fri Aug 15, 2008 1:05 pm

Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#4807 Postby TideJoe » Mon Jan 27, 2014 3:14 pm

Gotta love TWC. Their online forecast for Hattiesburg is <1" of snow yet they have a map of predicted snowfall totals with Hattiesburg in the 3-5" zone.
0 likes   

SeGaBob

#4808 Postby SeGaBob » Mon Jan 27, 2014 3:20 pm

TWC shows 2-4 inches of snow accumulation for here. NWS shows around a inch. :double:
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145369
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#4809 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 27, 2014 3:20 pm

18z NAM is out. Posting a few graphics in this post.

18 hours.

Image

24 hours.

Image

36 hours.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

TideJoe
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 155
Joined: Fri Aug 15, 2008 1:05 pm

Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#4810 Postby TideJoe » Mon Jan 27, 2014 3:22 pm

It's really a guessing game until it starts to shape up. TWC usually predicts more recklessly for ratings and the NWS is more conservative.
0 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9621
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

#4811 Postby Steve » Mon Jan 27, 2014 3:28 pm

Cyclone,

18z looks pretty/pretty ugly (depending on your point of view) for the Gulf South over to Coastal South and North Carolina. Man, that could be a lot of snow or it could be a lot of ice. I'm cold already.
0 likes   

windnrain
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 670
Joined: Wed Aug 10, 2005 1:19 pm
Location: Baton Rouge

#4812 Postby windnrain » Mon Jan 27, 2014 3:28 pm

The NAM takes the storm through really quickly it looks like.
0 likes   

BigB0882
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2284
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 12:08 am
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Contact:

#4813 Postby BigB0882 » Mon Jan 27, 2014 3:28 pm

I love how the NAM has a little semicircle cut out of the yellow/orange and it is basically exactly where Baton Rouge is. I know that is seriously nitpicking and I am just pointing out how funny it is.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145369
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#4814 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 27, 2014 3:34 pm

IMO,I think that after the 00z model package is out, is time to leave the models and focus on the local weather conditions how it is evolving as time goes by. There are Winter Storm Warnings posted so those who live in the deep south stay safe and prepare for possible power outages and slick roads.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5277
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#4815 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Jan 27, 2014 3:42 pm

cycloneye wrote:IMO,I think that after the 00z model package is out, is time to leave the models and focus on the local weather conditions how it is evolving as time goes by. There are Winter Storm Warnings posted so those who live in the deep south stay safe and prepare for possible power outages and slick roads.


Totally agree if one were to go only by models for last Thursday night/Friday event you would have completely missed what was unfolding on radar. Nowcasting begins late tonight.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145369
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#4816 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 27, 2014 3:46 pm

Warning for Georgia.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
322 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014

GAZ039-049>051-056-058>062-066>076-078>084-089>096-102>107-280430-
/O.UPG.KFFC.WS.A.0002.140128T1500Z-140129T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KFFC.WS.W.0001.140128T1500Z-140129T1800Z/
WILKES-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-SPALDING-BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-
HANCOCK-WARREN-TROUP-MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-
BALDWIN-WASHINGTON-GLASCOCK-JEFFERSON-HARRIS-TALBOT-TAYLOR-
CRAWFORD-BIBB-TWIGGS-WILKINSON-MUSCOGEE-CHATTAHOOCHEE-MARION-
SCHLEY-MACON-PEACH-HOUSTON-BLECKLEY-STEWART-WEBSTER-SUMTER-DOOLY-
CRISP-PULASKI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GRIFFIN...MILLEDGEVILLE...MACON...
COLUMBUS...WARNER ROBINS...LUMPKIN...AMERICUS...CORDELE
322 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.


* LOCATIONS...FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.

* HAZARD TYPES...A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO HALF AN
INCH. A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF ICE.

* TIMING...WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE
TUESDAY AND COULD LAST THROUGH THE EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT
OR IMPOSSIBLE BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON LASTING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT ICING WILL MAKE SIDEWALKS AND WALKWAYS
TREACHEROUS.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH VALUES FALLING THROUGH THE 30S INTO THE
UPPER 20S IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE 30S..WITH VALUES FINALLY
RISING ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MEANS
SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THE
AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT IS FORECAST WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY
TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA
FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN
EMERGENCY.

&&

$$
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
petit_bois
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 227
Joined: Tue Jun 22, 2010 12:04 pm
Location: Petit Bois Island Mississippi

#4817 Postby petit_bois » Mon Jan 27, 2014 3:51 pm

One inch of rain equals 7 inches of snow. (give or take a little)
:froze:
0 likes   
Resident of the Atlantic Basin's Major Hurricane Hit Capital!
Camille (200+winds), Frederic, Goerges, Katrina... and many many more.

Disclaimer: I'm likely the smartest guy here... but I have no idea where a tropical cyclone will go. I suggest you take my opinion as a grain of salt. I suggest you look to the National Hurricane Center for accurate info.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145369
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#4818 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 27, 2014 3:57 pm

Warning from Jacksonville NWS.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
119 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014

GAZ132>136-280800-
/O.UPG.KJAX.WS.A.0001.140129T0500Z-140129T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KJAX.WS.W.0001.140129T0500Z-140129T2300Z/
COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOUGLAS...HAZLEHURST...ALMA...BAXLEY...
JESUP
119 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT TO
6 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT TO
6 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* MAIN IMPACT...RAIN CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MAY
PRODUCE ICE ACCUMULATIONS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN DANGEROUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS ON ICY ROADS AND BRIDGES. AREAS AFFECTED
WILL INCLUDE HAZLEHURST...BAXLEY...JESUP...ALMA...AND DOUGLAS
GEORGIA.

* OTHER IMPACTS...IF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE OCCUR
THERE WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWERLINES. POWER
OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SLEET AND ICE
ARE EXPECTED. TRAVEL IS LIKELY TO BE SEVERELY IMPACTED.

&&

$$
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

BigB0882
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2284
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 12:08 am
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Contact:

Re:

#4819 Postby BigB0882 » Mon Jan 27, 2014 3:57 pm

petit_bois wrote:One inch of rain equals 7 inches of snow. (give or take a little)
:froze:


Are you supposed to get an inch QPF? I sure hope so, that would be awesome for you!
0 likes   

SeGaBob

#4820 Postby SeGaBob » Mon Jan 27, 2014 4:01 pm

It looks like my NWS will be the last to issue a warning if they do at all.
0 likes   


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests