Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[thatwhichisnt]

Just looked at GFS and NAM…clearly starting to differ in warm nose. Looks like NAM interested in producing a massive ice storm for my area. GFS being a little more kinder.

We live in the same area. Hoping the GFS pans out for sure. NAM would be horrible.

[HurriGuy]

Just looked at GFS and NAM…clearly starting to differ in warm nose. Looks like NAM interested in producing a massive ice storm for my area. GFS being a little more kinder.

We live in the same area. Hoping the GFS pans out for sure. NAM would be horrible.

Yeah, NAM would shut down BR metro and suburb parishes for probably 2-3 days. We don't have a single salt truck. Sand didn't do much of anything, but make a big mess on the bridges.

GFS has been on a small trend favoring some more snow lately. Hoping the overall band of moisture can layoff closer to noon than the early morning hours. Hate to see ice pellets and freezing rain for a 6-10 hour duration.

[thatwhichisnt]

Just looked at GFS and NAM…clearly starting to differ in warm nose. Looks like NAM interested in producing a massive ice storm for my area. GFS being a little more kinder.

We live in the same area. Hoping the GFS pans out for sure. NAM would be horrible.

Yeah, NAM would shut down BR metro and suburb parishes for probably 2-3 days. We don't have a single salt truck. Sand didn't do much of anything, but make a big mess on the bridges.

GFS has been on a small trend favoring some more snow lately. Hoping the overall band of moisture can layoff closer to noon than the early morning hours. Hate to see ice pellets and freezing rain for a 6-10 hour duration.

Indeed. Also, prairieville walmart is getting busy. If you need something, I would suggest going now =).

[mcheer23]

If I were to snow chase in mobile alabama.what time should I be there by

[Lane]

I want to say the change over is around midnight for Mobile. However bridges should be iced over before then. Do you plan on staying in mobile?

[timmeister]

Just looked at GFS and NAM…clearly starting to differ in warm nose. Looks like NAM interested in producing a massive ice storm for my area. GFS being a little more kinder.

Well, let's hope that the GFS will prevail and we get mostly snow in the Pine Belt Area of Mississippi. I don't want anyone to get freezing rain/sleet, but I'm praying that the nasty stuff stays to our south.



My Mom lives right on the snow/ice line in Washington Parish.

[cycloneye]

Loop from Tallahassee NWS.

[SunnyThoughts]

State of emergency declared in Alabama as per wkrg tv news a few minutes ago.

[knoxtnhorn]

So basically everyone North, East, South, and West of us (Knoxville, TN) will have had a winter storm after this week. Cool. Great to know. /teacher

[BigB0882]

Interesting loop from Tallahassee. Shows BTR starting as snow and then transitioning to ice. I don't think I have seen any models suggest that. It is always the other way around.

I have a feeling this event won't over perform like the last one. Models are really keen on this moving quickly. The last event over performed because dry air wasn't as much of a problem as they thought it would be. If it books it out like the models think then not much of a chance to get more unless it is really heavy rain/snow rates.

[SeGaBob]

I really hope the NAM is overdoing the warm nose...I guess it will be a wait and find out thing.

[hurricanefloyd5]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
346 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH GEORGIA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...

...COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING
AN ABRUPT END TO TODAYS WARM TEMPERATURES. COLD LIGHT RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE TEMPERATURE FALLS TO FREEZING. THE FREEZING LINE
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A THIN GLAZE OF
ICE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SLEET OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS...WHICH WILL BE WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM TIFTON TO DOTHAN
NORTHWARD. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE THE CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE LOWER...THOUGH A
TRACE OF SLEET OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS FLORIDA. THE
MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS EVEN WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE FREEZING
RAIN...AS EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS CAN SERIOUSLY DISRUPT LOCAL TRAVEL.

FLZ012>019-026-027-108-112-114-115-118-127-GAZ147-148-157>161-
281430-
/O.NEW.KTAE.WS.W.0001.140128T1800Z-140129T1800Z/
INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-INLAND WAKULLA-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COOK-BERRIEN-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YOUNGSTOWN...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY...
WEWAHITCHKA...QUINCY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...
SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO...MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...
CRAWFORDVILLE...FREEPORT...SANTA ROSA BEACH...PANAMA CITY...
PARKER...PORT SAINT JOE...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...SOPCHOPPY...
SAINT MARKS...ADEL...SPARKS...NASHVILLE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE...
QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND
346 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014 /246 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014/

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EST /NOON CST/
TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EST /NOON CST/
TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ WEDNESDAY.

* TIMING...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF
AN INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A TRACE TO A
DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH IMPACT AS THE ICING.

* MAIN IMPACT...ICY ROADS AND BRIDGES WILL MAKE DRIVING HAZARDOUS.
EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF ICING CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL IN THE DEEP SOUTH.

* OTHER IMPACTS...IF THERE IS MORE FREEZING RAIN THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...POWER OUTAGES COULD BECOME A CONCERN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE ARE EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

[Ntxw]

Here is the 18z GFS snowmap minus all the sleet and ice

[HurriGuy]

I really don't buy the Precip Type accumulation maps because I just looked at it and GFS Precip Type predicting just between .1 and .2 inches of snow for areas in GA/Carolinas where there easily expecting over 1 inch.

[bella_may]

Here is the 18z GFS snowmap minus all the sleet and ice

Wow. I don't like this

[SunnyThoughts]

Weather in Motion® | Enlarge Map
Get WeatherReady

Prepare for Winter Storms
Keep Safe During the Storm
Driving in Snow & Ice
Are You at Risk For Winter Storms?
Get Live Traffic Reports

... WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

* TIMING... PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO MOSTLY SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF A GREENVILLE TO LEAKESVILLE LINE IN THE AFTERNOON... WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. AS COLDER AIR BECOMES DEEPER LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... A TRANSITION TO MORE SLEET AND SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR... WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET OCCURRING ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS... STORM TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED... MAINLY ACROSS LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. TOTAL SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED... PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR... WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... AS WELL AS INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. ROAD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT... AND TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT AS ROADS AND BRIDGES BECOME ICY. POWER OUTAGES MAY BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION OCCURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET... AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

[TideJoe]

Here is the 18z GFS snowmap minus all the sleet and ice

Wow. I don't like this

I wouldn't get too worked up over it. I've seen these model output maps be terribly wrong when it comes to snow in the deep south. 1 or 2 degrees one way or the other can have a huge impact on the amount of snow that falls.

[nautical wheeler]

Did the GFS move further north with the snow or am I misreading that?

[BigB0882]

Yeah, those maps are dependent upon SO many things. 1) Is the model dead on with QPF? 2) Is the model dead on (and I mean EXACTLY) with temp profiles? GFS shows 850 temps being at 1C during a good portion of our QPF. One little degree lower and it is all snow. There is no way any model can predict temps within 1 degree even the morning of. So those maps could be way off either way. No one could get measurable snow or everyone and people not included could get 2 or 3 times as much as predicted. I would just like to see a really good snow shower, even if it isn't long lived and doesn't accumulate.

[BigB0882]

Did the GFS move further north with the snow or am I misreading that?

It does kind of look like that but you would think that would result in higher QPFs closer to the coast. I think it is just seeing what little QPF they have as falling as ALL snow.