Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Tireman4]

From Tim Heller's Facebook page. Tim is the chief meteorologist (OCM) at KTRK in Houston:

Winter Weather Update:

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm WARNING for Houston and Galveston from 3 AM - 6 PM Tuesday. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect west of Houston where icy accumulations will be less.

I'm still concerned this storm will be a bust; much ado about nothing. As I said in a lengthy Facebook post this morning, the moisture is limited and it now looks like the upper atmosphere will not be cold enough for significant snow to fall.

Here's what I think will happen:

Some light freezing rain/drizzle, perhaps mixed with sleet, will start to fall in the Houston area early Tuesday morning around sunrise. Temperatures will be around 30°, so as moisture falls icy patches could form on bridges and overpasses. There could be some problem spots for the afternoon/evening commute.

It's possible the wintry mix could change to all snow before ending around 3 PM. The National Weather Service says an inch of snow is possible. As I explained this morning, I believe we won't have significant snow accumulation.

But as I always say with winter storms in the Houston area, expect surprises! One brief burst of heavy freezing rain or snow in the wrong spot could create big problems.




https://www.facebook.com/HellerWeather

[Big O]

Monday's 12z European ensemble mean and especially the control run are mighty interesting in the 10-15 day range. Winter does not appear over. Perhaps this validates what Wxman 57 was alluding to when he said cold would hold off until the second week of February.

[Portastorm]

Here's some insights into the thinking from our NWS friends. EWX has just issued part 1 of its afternoon AFD.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
335 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED TO BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND HAVE THEREFORE CANCELED THE WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ALREADY SEEING A MOISTENING
OF THE MID LAYERS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SSEWD
ACROSS THE BAJA REGION. WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD(12-18 HOUR WINDOW)
OF LIGHT WINTER PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE SUBTROPICAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BAJA LOW INTERACTS
WITH THE DEEPENING COLD AIRMASS. WITH LITTLE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...THIS
WINTER WEATHER EVENT LOOKS TO BE MUCH DRIER THAN THE ONE LAST
WEEK. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE GROUND
AND WITH SPOTTY POCKETS OF SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW AS EVAPORATIVE
COOLING LOWERS AIR TEMPERATURES THROUGH A DEEP COLUMN OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AT THE LOWER LAYERS. THE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS FOR
BRIEF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET OR SNOW ON ELEVATED
OBJECTS(TRACE-0.20) WILL BE EAST OF I35 AND NORTH OF I10 BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND MID MORNING TUESDAY. A BAND OF VIRGA/VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING TOWARD MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE NWRN COUNTIES AND SINKING SEWD TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
AND THE HILL COUNTRY DUE TO THE POSSIBLITY OF WINTER PRECIPITION
FROM MIDNIGHT TO NOON TUESDAY. EXPECTING ALL THE PRECIPITATION
TO END FROM THE NW ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE SUBTROPICAL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH.

OTHERWISE COLD TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NOT CLIMBING OUT OF THE
30S IN THE EAST...HOWEVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS SHOULD POP INTO
THE 40S WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DECREASING CLOUDS AND VERY
COLD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A HARD FREEZE ALL AREAS.

[Tejas89]

If this is a bridges/overpasses event in Houston I feel for ya. That is the worst case IMO.

What that means at least in N. Texas is many businesses stay open and schools "delay". It results in the worst of all traffic clusters as everyone is still out on the 2ndary roads or grinding to a halt on overpasses. A good coating of sleet on everything is better so everyone stays home.

[orangeblood]

All guidance and climatology points towards below Winter Storm Warning Criteria for Houston so not sure what their thought process is but then again that's why we pay them the big bucks and not us Storm2k members !!!

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[cigtyme]

Wow really orange, Doesn't matter if it is what you feel is below, simple fact remains there is a warning

[weatherdude1108]

Here's some insights into the thinking from our NWS friends. EWX has just issued part 1 of its afternoon AFD.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
335 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED TO BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND HAVE THEREFORE CANCELED THE WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ALREADY SEEING A MOISTENING
OF THE MID LAYERS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SSEWD
ACROSS THE BAJA REGION. WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD(12-18 HOUR WINDOW)
OF LIGHT WINTER PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE SUBTROPICAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BAJA LOW INTERACTS
WITH THE DEEPENING COLD AIRMASS. WITH LITTLE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...THIS
WINTER WEATHER EVENT LOOKS TO BE MUCH DRIER THAN THE ONE LAST
WEEK. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE GROUND
AND WITH SPOTTY POCKETS OF SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW AS EVAPORATIVE
COOLING LOWERS AIR TEMPERATURES THROUGH A DEEP COLUMN OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AT THE LOWER LAYERS. THE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS FOR
BRIEF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET OR SNOW ON ELEVATED
OBJECTS(TRACE-0.20) WILL BE EAST OF I35 AND NORTH OF I10 BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND MID MORNING TUESDAY. A BAND OF VIRGA/VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING TOWARD MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE NWRN COUNTIES AND SINKING SEWD TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
AND THE HILL COUNTRY DUE TO THE POSSIBLITY OF WINTER PRECIPITION
FROM MIDNIGHT TO NOON TUESDAY. EXPECTING ALL THE PRECIPITATION
TO END FROM THE NW ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE SUBTROPICAL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH.

OTHERWISE COLD TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NOT CLIMBING OUT OF THE
30S IN THE EAST...HOWEVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS SHOULD POP INTO
THE 40S WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DECREASING CLOUDS AND VERY
COLD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A HARD FREEZE ALL AREAS.

Here is Part 2.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
402 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AFTER A VERY HARD FREEZE WEDNESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY THE AFTERNOON. A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW RESUMES OVER THE WESTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES EAST...HOWEVER THE
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY OVER S TX AND A FREEZE IS EXPECTED
MOST ALL AREAS AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS A MORE WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE MID LEVELS AND
S-SWLY WINDS DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL
BE BACK IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY OR SATURDAY EVENING WITH SLIGHT
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. POSSIBLE OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS TX. HAVE GONE WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

[TheProfessor]

In case anyone hasn't noticed yet, but we already have 40 more pages than last years thread with possibly a few more big storms to come.

[Portastorm]

Wow really orange, Doesn't matter if it is what you feel is below, simple fact remains there is a warning

orangeblood's post was within acceptable standards for our board and our rules. Hopefully it is clear enough to everyone who is on this forum that, when it comes to forecasts and personal planning re: weather events, they should only pay REAL attention to posts from our blue tags (meteorologists) and information from the National Weather Service.

I also made a post this morning with an important note about how all posts here need to be careful as to not spread confusion or deliberately troll an event like this one.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

-8 dewpoint in Dallas? Am i reading that correctly?

Edit: I assume thats accurate. Well all that means to me is that when those dewpoints get into the region expecting precip, when it does actually fall, the temp will drop MASSIVELY. Ready to see these soundings too. Man this system is dry

[HouTXmetro]

Colder temps filtering into South Central Louisiana Faster than East Texas... Lafayette is already down to 48 while Lufkin, TX is at 54. To the West San Antonio down to 48 while Huntsville, TX is at 53. Is there a reason cold temps are filtering into other areas faster then East/SE TX? Same thing happened last event.

[Portastorm]

Colder temps filtering into South Central Louisiana Faster than East Texas... Lafayette is already down to 48 while Lufkin, TX is at 54. To the West San Antonio down to 48 while Huntsville, TX is at 53. Is there a reason cold temps are filtering into other areas faster then East/SE TX? Same thing happened last event.

Here is the latest temp map. Freezing temps moving southeast from northwest Texas.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[HouTXmetro]

Colder temps filtering into South Central Louisiana Faster than East Texas... Lafayette is already down to 48 while Lufkin, TX is at 54. To the West San Antonio down to 48 while Huntsville, TX is at 53. Is there a reason cold temps are filtering into other areas faster then East/SE TX? Same thing happened last event.

Here is the latest temp map. Freezing temps moving southeast from northwest Texas.

I see, but I'm trying to figure out why cold air filtering into areas to our east faster as well. Look at Louisiana.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im not really worried about temps right now, they will fall in due time. Could have been sunshine. I havent seen satellite but here in Sugar Land the sun was peaking out quite a bit till just before sunset

[PTrackerLA]

Colder temps filtering into South Central Louisiana Faster than East Texas... Lafayette is already down to 48 while Lufkin, TX is at 54. To the West San Antonio down to 48 while Huntsville, TX is at 53. Is there a reason cold temps are filtering into other areas faster then East/SE TX? Same thing happened last event.

Because we have to get primed for our snow event . I honestly don't know but it seems to be following what the models were showing with the freezing line. Hope you see some snow in Houston!

[ravyrn]

Colder temps filtering into South Central Louisiana Faster than East Texas... Lafayette is already down to 48 while Lufkin, TX is at 54. To the West San Antonio down to 48 while Huntsville, TX is at 53. Is there a reason cold temps are filtering into other areas faster then East/SE TX? Same thing happened last event.

I could be completely wrong, but I think the Ouachita Mountains help hold the dense shallow cold air back acting like a dam which may have caused it to progress a little slower past the Arklatex region. I think earlier in this thread a while back someone said as much.

[HouTXmetro]

Colder temps filtering into South Central Louisiana Faster than East Texas... Lafayette is already down to 48 while Lufkin, TX is at 54. To the West San Antonio down to 48 while Huntsville, TX is at 53. Is there a reason cold temps are filtering into other areas faster then East/SE TX? Same thing happened last event.

I could be completely wrong, but I think the Ouachita Mountains help hold the dense shallow cold air back acting like a dam which may have caused it to progress a little slower past the Arklatex region. I think earlier in this thread a while back someone said as much.

Well that makes perfect sense.

[South Texas Storms]

I gotta admit I was starting to get pretty excited after yesterday's 12z model runs about waking up to possibly seeing at least a dusting of snow on the ground here in College Station tomorrow morning, but now, not so much. Maybe I will wake up to a nice surprise tomorrow morning, but it's not looking good based on the model trends today.

[Roxy]

I usually only follow hurricanes, and at this point everyone would say...forget the models! Is it the same w/winter storms or is it really a bust? They have already canceled school, my boys really want to see some winter weather.

P. s. here in clear lake it is still relatively warm....

[dhweather]

Just remember, the 2782 hour GFS has a cat 5 in the gulf!


Don't give up hope, you guys stand a chance down south tonight. The dew point up here is below zero, we won't even see a flurry.