12zUKMET..IMO

#1 Postby **Vortex** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 12:23 pm

Is right on target...The run is very reasonable given the synoptic environment developing and expected using all medium range guidance. Should this pan out its very similar to Floyd. Fl to Maine equally at risk but should be able to begin to narrow the risk area this weekend.

ameriwx2003 · #2 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 12:31 pm

What really interests me is how the UKMET intensifies this as it approaches and travels near the Bahamas

JCT777 · #3 Postby **JCT777** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 12:40 pm

There is some very warm water in the Bahamas region - maybe this is why the UKMET intensifies Isabel in that vicinity. It also looks like the UKMET is recurving Isabel toward the Carolinas. But this is just speculation.

ameriwx2003 · #4 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 12:46 pm

John.. yes it looks like right at the end it has Isabel taking a right turn:):). A track and intensity like the UKMETS would have everyone from Florida North munching on some Tums:):)

GulfBreezer · #5 Postby **GulfBreezer** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 12:49 pm

TUMS?? I think everyone is drinking PEPTO by the bottle!! Got a fresh bottle sitting right next to my computer! :o

#6 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 12:51 pm

I don't know about your prediction. I have a feeling that she is headed for the graveyard in the Atlantic for hurricanes. Look at the latest satellite image and it seems to me like she almost hooking NNW. If this is the case, then she's a fish. It won't even be a close call for the U.S. Now we all know this could be a temporary jog (seen a lot those already). So I could (probably am) be wrong but it sure would be GREAT news for the U.S. east coast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

GalvestonDuck · #7 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 1:01 pm

GulfBreezer wrote:TUMS?? I think everyone is drinking PEPTO by the bottle!! Got a fresh bottle sitting right next to my computer! :o

Yup, my gut was aching last night.

floydchaser · #8 Postby **floydchaser** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 1:15 pm

Big change from 00z to 12z UKMET is speed. The new run is much slower, allowing it to curve northward a bit farther east. Landfall on it points to NC, but unlike the previous run, it does not yet have it crossing land. Incidentally, the 12z run position for 8AM Wednesday is almost dead on with NHC's track position for that time. However, given that NHC doesn't like to lean completely in the direction of one model, I would expect them to shift their track to the right for the 5 PM advisory.

#9 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 1:16 pm

Somehow I feel that Florida will be left out of the equation. I really want it to cause I dont want that tramp Isabel to slither her way here

12zUKMET..IMO

12zUKMET..IMO

I don't know...

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