Texas Winter 2013-2014

[wxman22]

0z NAM shows up to a .25 of an inch of precip across Harris county, thats a big difference from the previous runs considering it was showing only a .10 of an inch of precip at most.

[Ntxw]

0z NAM shows up to a .25 of an inch of precip across Harris county, thats a big difference from the previous runs considering it was showing only a .10 of an inch of precip at most.

That it does, still all sleet and freezing rain.

[Snowman67]

This could be a long night after all ... the first of what could be many surprises:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
813 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014

.UPDATE...
AN UPDATED WSW PRODUCT TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

ALTHOUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE RADAR ECHOES MOVING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL TEXAS REFLECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF MELTING
LAYER ENHANCEMENT...SURFACE REPORTS ARE CATCHING A MIX OF LIGHT
RAIN AND PROBABLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
GIVEN THIS TREND AND THE FEED OF A DENSE LAYER OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
EXTENDING SW TO THE PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL LOW...WILL NUDGE POPS
WESTWARD FOR LATE TONIGHT...AND INCREASE POPS TO 30 PERCENT OVER
CENTRAL TX FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. QPF WILL BE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR
THIS AREA WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW SUGGESTED FOR AREAS ALONG
AND N OF A FREDERICKSBURG TO GIDDINGS LINE. EVENING QPF AMOUNTS
ARE NIL AS THE FIRST WAVE OF INSTABILITY HAS TO FALL THROUGH
ALMOST 10000 FEET OF DRIER AIR.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NOTED FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
ADVISORY AREA...BUT HAVE INCREASED THE ONSET OF MIXING INTO SLEET
WITHOUT MAKING CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES. VERY DRY AIR WAS NOTED ON
THE DRT SOUNDING WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE PROCESS OF RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO THE MIX. VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE STILL REFLECTED IN NEW
MODEL ARRIVALS FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ADVISORY AREA.

Pulling for you Porta!

[Portastorm]

Just deleted my post after I saw someone had already posted the updated AFD. Heh, this could get interesting after all. Who knew?! Don't you love it when Mother Nature tells us "um, you don't know me as well as you think you do!"

[Wntrwthrguy]

Trying to understand what has occurred that might give austin a surprise or two. Is there more moisture now than previously thought? Is the low moving further north? Etc

[Rgv20]

0zNAM lights up the Radar for Deep South Texas at 3AM Wednesday morning with temperatures in the mid 30s!

[Tireman4]

This could be a long night after all ... the first of what could be many surprises:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
813 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014

.UPDATE...
AN UPDATED WSW PRODUCT TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

ALTHOUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE RADAR ECHOES MOVING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL TEXAS REFLECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF MELTING
LAYER ENHANCEMENT...SURFACE REPORTS ARE CATCHING A MIX OF LIGHT
RAIN AND PROBABLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
GIVEN THIS TREND AND THE FEED OF A DENSE LAYER OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
EXTENDING SW TO THE PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL LOW...WILL NUDGE POPS
WESTWARD FOR LATE TONIGHT...AND INCREASE POPS TO 30 PERCENT OVER
CENTRAL TX FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. QPF WILL BE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR
THIS AREA WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW SUGGESTED FOR AREAS ALONG
AND N OF A FREDERICKSBURG TO GIDDINGS LINE. EVENING QPF AMOUNTS
ARE NIL AS THE FIRST WAVE OF INSTABILITY HAS TO FALL THROUGH
ALMOST 10000 FEET OF DRIER AIR.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NOTED FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
ADVISORY AREA...BUT HAVE INCREASED THE ONSET OF MIXING INTO SLEET
WITHOUT MAKING CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES. VERY DRY AIR WAS NOTED ON
THE DRT SOUNDING WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE PROCESS OF RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO THE MIX. VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE STILL REFLECTED IN NEW
MODEL ARRIVALS FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ADVISORY AREA.

Pulling for you Porta!

Here we go!!!!!!!!!!!!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

0zNAM lights up the Radar for Deep South Texas at 3AM Wednesday morning with temperatures in the mid 30s!

[img]http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h62/cantu5977/Win ter%202012-13/nam_reflectivity_us_10_zpsae2d6852.png[/img]

Pullin for ya!!!!!

[Portastorm]

Trying to understand what has occurred that might give austin a surprise or two. Is there more moisture now than previously thought? Is the low moving further north? Etc

I'll tell you one thing ... one reason why is that our computer models attempt to forecast using limited data when it comes to disturbances out of Mexico. That air is not sampled at all unlike the air here in the US with the many tools we use. So, consequently, sometimes we can get "surprises" coming out of ol' Mexico. Perhaps tonight is one of those times. It has happened before.

[Ntxw]

Radar loop

[Portastorm]

0zNAM lights up the Radar for Deep South Texas at 3AM Wednesday morning with temperatures in the mid 30s!

[img]http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h62/cantu5977/Win ter%202012-13/nam_reflectivity_us_10_zpsae2d6852.png[/img]

Pullin for ya!!!!!

You too! This is why HGX stuck to their guns about the weather warnings. They held out the caveat that because we're dealing with a system out of Mexico that a surprise or two may lurk. This will likely impact y'all as well.

[Wntrwthrguy]

Trying to understand what has occurred that might give austin a surprise or two. Is there more moisture now than previously thought? Is the low moving further north? Etc

I'll tell you one thing ... one reason why is that our computer models attempt to forecast using limited data when it comes to disturbances out of Mexico. That air is not sampled at all unlike the air here in the US with the many tools we use. So, consequently, sometimes we can get "surprises" coming out of ol' Mexico. Perhaps tonight is one of those times. It has happened before.

Thanks Porta! Didn't even think about that! Here's to hoping surprises for everyone!

[ROCK]

NAM ejecting that ULL energy right into deep STX now a lot more than the runs today....now almost back to where it was a few days ago....lol...

CMC might have been on to something earlier...

[Snowman67]

:uarrow:

Just deleted my post after I saw someone had already posted the updated AFD. Heh, this could get interesting after all. Who knew?! Don't you love it when Mother Nature tells us "um, you don't know me as well as you think you do!"

Yup. Hoping that God has a little surprise in store for us

[ndale]

Just need the air to moisten faster, my dewpoint is 5 degrees and humidity is 24%.

[Janie2006]

And remember Grasshopper...."Wax on, wax off."

[Rgv20]

NAM ejecting that ULL energy right into deep STX now a lot more than the runs today....now almost back to where it was a few days ago....lol...

CMC might have been on to something earlier...

Indeed, NAM is also ejecting the energy a little bit faster than the 18z run and is a bit further north than past runs. Corpus noted in one of their discussions that even a track 50-100 miles more north would have huge implications to QPF totals. Deep South Texas and South Texas may be in for a surprise Tomorrow night and Wednesday morning!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Porta i agree. The SJT surprises us very often. Thats what my silly forecast a couple pages ago is banking on.

[Tireman4]

0zNAM lights up the Radar for Deep South Texas at 3AM Wednesday morning with temperatures in the mid 30s!

[img]http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h62/cantu5977/Win ter%202012-13/nam_reflectivity_us_10_zpsae2d6852.png[/img]

Pullin for ya!!!!!

You too! This is why HGX stuck to their guns about the weather warnings. They held out the caveat that because we're dealing with a system out of Mexico that a surprise or two may lurk. This will likely impact y'all as well.

And I totally agreed with them Porta. David Paul has too. You should hear what folks are saying to he and Brooks Garner on their Facebook page. Being a met is hard. Being a met in Texas is hard. Being a met in Texas during the winter season trying to predict frozen precipitation is even harder. When others were jumping off and calling it a bust, HGX has stuck to their guns. Goodness. Just relax folks and believe in Champ The Charger. In all seriousness, this is not the last go around with winter weather. We have more coming this season. Stay tuned. More is yet to come.

[Tireman4]

NAM ejecting that ULL energy right into deep STX now a lot more than the runs today....now almost back to where it was a few days ago....lol...

CMC might have been on to something earlier...

Not the crazy Uncle...nooo!!