Texas Winter 2013-2014

[frank92171]

Can you elaborate on why dew point is so important? New to this and would like to understand better what we are looking for. Thanks

[South Texas Storms]

The baloon launch here in CLL is scheduled for 6z tonight.

[ROCK]

To me the surface temperature isn't that important. What I want to know is how did the balloon launch from Tamu and UH do? Would like to see what the temperature profile is above which is far more critical.

UH is tomorrow at 11am I believe....I got one of my kids birthday balloons....let me tie my weather station to it. Hang on...

[HurricaneHunter914]

To me the surface temperature isn't that important. What I want to know is how did the balloon launch from Tamu and UH do? Would like to see what the temperature profile is above which is far more critical.

Texas A&M launches after 10:30 tonight.

[weatherguy425]

To me the surface temperature isn't that important. What I want to know is how did the balloon launch from Tamu and UH do? Would like to see what the temperature profile is above which is far more critical.

I may be wrong - BUT - I don't believe the launch, at least at UH, will occur until mid-morning tomorrow. Wxman was chatting about it at KHOU. Reasoning was that column would be different by tomorrow morning anyway, so, delayed launch until it was 'crunch-time'.

[Portastorm]

0z GFS rolling in and it looks a LOT like the 0z NAM ... big depature from previous runs. Like the 0z NAM, upper level energy is further north and more progressive as compared to previous runs. Almost looks too fast. It shears out the low quickly as compared to previous runs which kept ULL more intact/compact.

[BigB0882]

Can you elaborate on why dew point is so important? New to this and would like to understand better what we are looking for. Thanks

Take a look at Janie2006's post in the Deep South thread. I would copy and paste but not without their permission.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

0z GFS rolling in and it looks a LOT like the 0z NAM ... big depature from previous runs. Like the 0z NAM, upper level energy is further north and more progressive as compared to previous runs.

[BigB0882]

0z GFS rolling in and it looks a LOT like the 0z NAM ... big depature from previous runs. Like the 0z NAM, upper level energy is further north and more progressive as compared to previous runs. Almost looks too fast. It shears out the low quickly as compared to previous runs which kept ULL more intact/compact.

Oh I hope you are right and I hope it maintains the better look all the way through the run so we all can hope for more FUN!

[Ntxw]

0z GFS rolling in and it looks a LOT like the 0z NAM ... big depature from previous runs. Like the 0z NAM, upper level energy is further north and more progressive as compared to previous runs. Almost looks too fast. It shears out the low quickly as compared to previous runs which kept ULL more intact/compact.

But it has about the same qpf up to 0.10 inch for most of SE Texas, a little less for the northern areas than the 12z run.

[frank92171]

Can you elaborate on why dew point is so important? New to this and would like to understand better what we are looking for. Thanks

Take a look at Janie2006's post in the Deep South thread. I would copy and paste but not without their permission.

Sorry, I just saw it in that thread. Thanks for the answer. Kinda understand better.

[Portastorm]

0z GFS rolling in and it looks a LOT like the 0z NAM ... big depature from previous runs. Like the 0z NAM, upper level energy is further north and more progressive as compared to previous runs. Almost looks too fast. It shears out the low quickly as compared to previous runs which kept ULL more intact/compact.

Oh I hope you are right and I hope it maintains the better look all the way through the run so we all can hope for more FUN!

What I'm taking away from this GFS run is that clearly the Mexican system wasn't sampled well. And some of that upper level energy is going to end up much closer to Texas. And as I said earlier, the early outbreak of precip in the Hill Country, well west of where it was supposed to start, should show us that the precip chances for SC and SE Texas are more enhanced than what earlier models showed. Probably also due to this system having some connection with Pacific jet moisture. I'd shudder to start guessing about actual QPF/accumulation amounts but clearly it's looking much better than it did 6 hours ago even.

[Portastorm]

0z GFS rolling in and it looks a LOT like the 0z NAM ... big depature from previous runs. Like the 0z NAM, upper level energy is further north and more progressive as compared to previous runs. Almost looks too fast. It shears out the low quickly as compared to previous runs which kept ULL more intact/compact.

But it has about the same qpf up to 0.10 inch for most of SE Texas, a little less for the northern areas than the 12z run.

I saw that and as I just wrote, I'm not buying it. It's early precip predictions don't even match with what's going on in the Hill Country. The takeway is models didn't capturre system well and it's going to be further north.

[Ntxw]

0z GFS rolling in and it looks a LOT like the 0z NAM ... big depature from previous runs. Like the 0z NAM, upper level energy is further north and more progressive as compared to previous runs. Almost looks too fast. It shears out the low quickly as compared to previous runs which kept ULL more intact/compact.

But it has about the same qpf up to 0.10 inch for most of SE Texas, a little less for the northern areas than the 12z run.

I saw that and as I just wrote, I'm not buying it. It's early precip predictions don't even match with what's going on in the Hill Country. The takeway is models didn't capturre system well and it's going to be further north.

They do have reflectivity in the hill country. There's stuff falling yes but there is no qpf equivalent to measure it by to say the model was wrong. Trace doesn't count as it right now.

[Wntrwthrguy]

Starting to sprinkle/drizzle here in hutto, just north of austin. Looks like it's going to be a long night!

[South Texas Storms]

0z GFS rolling in and it looks a LOT like the 0z NAM ... big depature from previous runs. Like the 0z NAM, upper level energy is further north and more progressive as compared to previous runs. Almost looks too fast. It shears out the low quickly as compared to previous runs which kept ULL more intact/compact.

Oh I hope you are right and I hope it maintains the better look all the way through the run so we all can hope for more FUN!

What I'm taking away from this GFS run is that clearly the Mexican system wasn't sampled well. And some of that upper level energy is going to end up much closer to Texas. And as I said earlier, the early outbreak of precip in the Hill Country, well west of where it was supposed to start, should show us that the precip chances for SC and SE Texas are more enhanced than what earlier models showed. Probably also due to this system having some connection with Pacific jet moisture. I'd shudder to start guessing about actual QPF/accumulation amounts but clearly it's looking much better than it did 6 hours ago even.

I agree Porta and this frequently happens due to the models not sampling the system well while it's over Mexico. Btw are you getting any precip currently? Radar shows some echoes over Austin.

[ndale]

Finally getting some sprinkles here.

[BigB0882]

0z GFS rolling in and it looks a LOT like the 0z NAM ... big depature from previous runs. Like the 0z NAM, upper level energy is further north and more progressive as compared to previous runs. Almost looks too fast. It shears out the low quickly as compared to previous runs which kept ULL more intact/compact.

But it has about the same qpf up to 0.10 inch for most of SE Texas, a little less for the northern areas than the 12z run.

I saw that and as I just wrote, I'm not buying it. It's early precip predictions don't even match with what's going on in the Hill Country. The takeway is models didn't capturre system well and it's going to be further north.

I like you Porta. I am rooting for you to be dead on.

[Janie2006]

Meh. No worries. I didn't come up with the theory. If so, I'm owed a lot of accolades and a department chair at some swanky meteorology department.

[South Texas Storms]

Darn the evening AFD update from HGX says I don't have much chance of snow accumulations tonight. I thought this evening's trends were looking good for me...

".UPDATE...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS MEXICO WILL
ULTIMATELY BE THE SPARK THAT INITIATES WHATEVER LIFT WILL GENERATE
TUESDAY PRECIPITATION. WHILE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO TRACK THE
PROGRESSION...OR DOWNSTREAM EVOLUTION...OF ENHANCED OMEGA/PVA
PRODUCED BY THESE WEAK WAVES THEY ARE NEVERTHELESS A MARKER TO TRACK
OR FOLLOW. TONIGHT'S UPDATES WERE TO TEMPS/POPS/WX THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MORE OF AN ADJUSTMENT. FOR POPS HAVE BLENDED THE
00Z NAM AND THE 12Z WRF (ARW) OF SWATHING HIGH CHANCE/LOW QPF UP
NORTH DURING THE MORNING...TRANSITIONING THIS FURTHER SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES
BEFORE DAWN...TURNING OVER TO A WINTER MIX OF EITHER FREEZING RAIN
OR LIGHT SLEET ALONG AND NORTH THE HIGHWAY 105 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE
MORNING. THIS PRECIP TYPE WILL SPREAD TOWARDS THE COAST FROM MID-
LATE AM THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY
WARM BUT...JUST UPSTREAM... TEMPS/DEW POINTS ARE BELOW
FREEZING/SINGLE DIGITS. THIS LOWER LAYER DRY AIR FILTERING IN MAY
THWART PRE-DAWN PRECIPITATION. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SATURATION
FROM PACIFIC MOISTURE HIGH ENOUGH INTO THE UPPER LAYERS TOMORROW
MORNING FOR ICE CRYSTALS/ SUPERCOOLED DROPLETS TO PARTIALLY MELT
WITHIN A WARMER 5-10K FT LAYER...THEN PARTIALLY RE-FREEZE INTO SLEET
IN THE LOWER 5K FT. ROADWAYS MAY BECOME WET WITH EARLY DAY DRIZZLE
OR VERY LIGHT RAIN...THEN FREEZE THROUGH THE DAY. ICE FORMING ON
ELEVATED ROADS AND BRIDGES WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR TRAVEL
TOMORROW. ALL AND ALL...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS EVENT WILL
UNFOLD SIMILAR TO FRIDAY'S EVENT. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THAT THERE
APPEARS TO BE LESS NORTHERN SNOW ACCUMULATION AND THERE MAY BE MORE
OF A SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA SLEET/ICE PROBLEM GOING INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. 31"