SW LA/SE TX Winter 2013-2014

[BigB0882]

We just need that nasty warm nose to go BYE BYE!

I am very curious to see what the GFS does. I am hoping it goes just a LITTLE bit wetter, at least. Get us to .3 GFS, you can do it!! To be honest, with the NAM showing a faster solution I wouldn't be surprised to see GFS hold serve or even go down a negligible amount again. It was already fast, it just doesn't see as much moisture as NAM. I hope I am wrong but when I think things out I can convince myself of a thousand things. haha

[Kennethb]

Dewpoint has dropped to 18 here in Baton Rouge, 11 degrees over the past 2 hours. Just need some good precip to drop the temps and looks like we will be in the 20's tomorrow with another round of wintry precip/winter storm. Friday was a rare of a day with a temperature of 28 all day with sleet and freezing rain. Another winter storm in such a short time is just incredible.

[BigB0882]

Do we want the dew point to fall any more? Doesn't it eventually mean the air is too dry? Where do we want it to stop?

[Kennethb]

I would expect the dewpoint to slow its fall while the temperature continues to fall. With the amount of precip that should fall the dewpoint should begin to rise later tomorrow morning while the temperature drops below freezing.

[HurriGuy]

GFS for BTR went up 3+inches snow.

[BigB0882]

[HurriGuy]

For my area, we are up .4. BTR still around .3

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Just getting on here since before noon. Have a lot of reading and catching up to do but wanted to pass this along first. My wife got a text alert from entergy saying to be prepared for good probabilty of losing power for 3-5 days tomorrow. They rarely do this, only when a hurricane is on the verge of hitting us.

[BigB0882]

Good thing I made it to the store. If it is mostly ice then it is a very real possibility. Mostly snow then not such a big deal (and more fun).

[thatwhichisnt]

I got enough Ramen to feed any of my BR and Prairieville brethren if they it. Boy, I can cook some mean ramen.

[Janie2006]

Do we want the dew point to fall any more? Doesn't it eventually mean the air is too dry? Where do we want it to stop?

I wouldn't worry about that, there's plenty of moisture coming in to bring it up and the air temperature down.

[southerngale]

Wow widespread 3"-4" across all of South Louisiana on the 00z NAM. Temps look colder too! This is a great direction you wanna see models trend if we are to get appreciable snow.

Can you post the image? I want to see what it shows for Beaumont.

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[Jagno]

Just getting on here since before noon. Have a lot of reading and catching up to do but wanted to pass this along first. My wife got a text alert from entergy saying to be prepared for good probabilty of losing power for 3-5 days tomorrow. They rarely do this, only when a hurricane is on the verge of hitting us.

Everyone in our restaurant tonight got the same message. Our locations vary from Longville to Cameron, Vinton to Jennings. They must have just sent it out statewide to cover their behinds and get people to prepare.

[BigB0882]

We got the same phone call, as well. Just sounds like they are being prepared, not actually making a prediction.

[BigB0882]

According to 0z GFS output BTR gets .33 QPF. That is up about .10 from 18z run. Happy for that.

Can you get snow with 850s at 2 above freezing? Just curious as the 850 temps are very close on GFS but still above freezing for the higher QPF amount. Is it absolutely necessary to be 0 or below or is there a little wiggle room there?

[windnrain]

Yeah BB, we are up, that's good. I would have expected us to be up more given the map. I think that there's a good chance we'll be up significanty more given the map. A tiny shift east or west puts us at .5". Time to radar watch! Game on!

[BigB0882]

Well, I am exhausted. Going to bed. We got a new puppy yesterday so I will be up bright and early. I would be, anyway, to see how things look.

[ravyrn]

Guys, I'd be cautious trusting the ptype accumulation maps. Try reading the actual data. When the temperature gradient makes such a big deal in these events, the ptype maps aren't as reliable. If it were Illinois, where the column is entrenched in cold, they're good, but not down here where it's borderline.

[LaBreeze]

Wow widespread 3"-4" across all of South Louisiana on the 00z NAM. Temps look colder too! This is a great direction you wanna see models trend if we are to get appreciable snow.

I thought that the southern half of South Louisiana was going to get just ice. How believable is this PTrackerLA?

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Looking forward to hearing what these have left behind: