Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

SeGaBob · #4961 Postby **SeGaBob** » Tue Jan 28, 2014 6:30 am

Normally don't post this early but can't sleep with anticipation...

the temperature here is 46F and the dewpoint is 31F It better start dropping a little bit faster...

windnrain · #4962 Postby **windnrain** » Tue Jan 28, 2014 6:32 am

Actually, looks like 06z has >.5" QPF going all the way to Lake Charles.

NewOrleans59 · #4963 Postby **NewOrleans59** » Tue Jan 28, 2014 6:35 am

windnrain wrote:SPC really expanded the QPF >.5" westward. Looking like a VERY serious event for the I10 corridor and BTR.

Is it because of the system over the baja developing and digging east across Mexico than moving out into SW GOM?

windnrain · #4964 Postby **windnrain** » Tue Jan 28, 2014 6:37 am

I don't think so. Look at the comparison I put up. The system across the Baja doesn't look that different in terms of QPF between 00z and 06z... but for whatever reason, the precip on the western edge is intensified, not really stretched further.

Although, looking at Radar, Austin is getting a fair amount of QPF as we speak, so this looks like at the get go, a heavier event!

SeGaBob · #4965 Postby **SeGaBob** » Tue Jan 28, 2014 6:54 am

This system has set up quite nicely to my west now... only problem is the temp is 46 here now with a dewpoint around 31. Most hourly forecasts showed us being in the upper 30s by now.

windnrain · #4966 Postby **windnrain** » Tue Jan 28, 2014 6:57 am

Here's something to keep in mind. SPC QPF forecasts show the measurable QPF ending somewhere between Houston and Austin. Right now, Austin is getting VERY significant QPF, and the winter precip is extending all the way to Mexico. This to me says that this system will be a heavier precipitation producer than previously thought:

#4967 Postby **northjaxpro** » Tue Jan 28, 2014 6:58 am

The NWS WFO in Jacksonville has extended the Winter Storm Warning to include the counties of Southeast Georgia to the Florida-Georgia border all the way through Wednesday at 6:00 p.m. Now, thentire Southeast Gergia region ubder either Winter Weather Warning or Ice Storm warning from Brunswick, GA northward.

#4968 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jan 28, 2014 7:11 am

Saved radar loop.

windnrain · #4969 Postby **windnrain** » Tue Jan 28, 2014 7:15 am

Cycloneeye: Am I correct in saying that frozen precip is building far more westerly than models and the NWS projected? I don't think I saw anything leading up to this saying that Austin was going to get considerable QPF. From the looks of it, this may extend the amount of QPF leading into SE Louisiana as well, right? I see the moisture finally filling in South and west of us in Baton Rouge.

TideJoe · #4970 Postby **TideJoe** » Tue Jan 28, 2014 7:46 am

Sleet coming in pretty heavy in Hattiesburg. Looks like the snow line is about 30 miles to my north right now.

#4971 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jan 28, 2014 7:53 am

Saved radar loop.

PTPatrick · #4972 Postby **PTPatrick** » Tue Jan 28, 2014 8:10 am

Sleet already in H'burg eh? It's freezing rain badly in mcomb per obs. 26 degrees and rain. McComb went from around freezing to 26 when precip came....dew point rose about 15 degrees.

I have been very curious as to what folks on and south of I-10 will have to deal with....temps currently mid 30s but dew points around 11-12....if the precipic cools them 6 degrees they are in for a day the likes of the coast hasn't seen. Nobody I have talked to has seen a real ice storm south of I-10.

Mobile office is bullish...they are thinking banded precip that way will conspire to drop up to a half inch ice and still 1-3 snow even down in Grand Bay.... Nola office is not showing as much on the coast.

#4973 Postby **northjaxpro** » Tue Jan 28, 2014 8:18 am

Just a friendly reminder: Feel free to post pictures during this winter storm event. I really enjoy pictures!!!!! Be extremely careful out there everyone!

CYCLONE MIKE · #4974 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Tue Jan 28, 2014 8:26 am

Northjax, looking at the wv loops what's your take on how things are shaping up this morning. The Nam has been the wettest for us on every model run for days until the 06z came out now its the driest. Is south LA looking likr it could really get dry slotted through all this all the sudden?

#4975 Postby **BigB0882** » Tue Jan 28, 2014 8:26 am

Is that precip shield too far north or is it going to come down and/or fill in to the south? I thought areas to the south (even south of me) would get the most precip but it is really lighting up north of us.

#4976 Postby **HurriGuy** » Tue Jan 28, 2014 8:36 am

Is the feature over Mexico stalling?

windnrain · #4977 Postby **windnrain** » Tue Jan 28, 2014 8:41 am

BigB, I think without a doubt it's going to go south. I just think its progressing slower than expected. That shield goes all the way west to Austin. More training = more precip = bigger storm for us.

PTPatrick · #4978 Postby **PTPatrick** » Tue Jan 28, 2014 8:42 am

No...the precip was supposed to build up in central LA before he coastal areas. Be patient Jedi.

Meanwhile we got 2 inches yesterday and its 4 degrees here in Denver.

windnrain · #4979 Postby **windnrain** » Tue Jan 28, 2014 8:45 am

Also, BigB, look at that map and imagine it was all rain. From your history just living in Louisiana... wouldn't you say that looks like one of those inch of rain days? This is going to be big!

#4980 Postby **BigB0882** » Tue Jan 28, 2014 8:46 am

Thanks. I am so giddy right now. It looks very promising. Much more so than models said this time yesterday.

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