SW LA/SE TX Winter 2013-2014

[southerngale]

Snow is mixing with the sleet now!

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[Stormnut]

Mesoscale discussion
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0038.html

[windnrain]

Yeah... sounds like a bust. That mesoscale only mentions light snow/sleet/freezing rain and BR is right outside the edge of the little red cloud that shows where the freezing precip will be.

[Stormnut]

Yeah... sounds like a bust. That mesoscale only mentions light snow/sleet/freezing rain and BR is right outside the edge of the little red cloud that shows where the freezing precip will be.

It's still coming!! Just maybe not the duration we hoped for

[PTrackerLA]

Radar echoes are diminishing just when I thought they would begin to ramp up. Very light sleet falling here now.

[crazycajuncane]

Radar echoes are diminishing just when I thought they would begin to ramp up. Very light sleet falling here now.

This whole event has been a buzzkill. Friday was much more exciting.

We seem to do better with a 20% chance than a 100% chance.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Yep starting to look like the short term rap and 06znam were right. Sw LA looks to be drying out and being dry slotted just like the RAP was showing. Don't think this is going to be any worse than last week, might not even be as bad especially since how fast the back end is dropping south.

[windnrain]

So honestly, people who have more met knowledge than me... what are our chances to get pretty much anything? I'm at a loss for how this has completely disintegrated. Any snow at all? Even freezing rain?

[Hurricane_Apu]

There seems to be a big pocket of dry air at the mid levels over S. Central LA. Lots of precip not reaching the ground (notice the difference between the base and composite radar) or not reaching it in the amounts that the radar echoes seem to indicate. I have no idea what's causing this... I'd have thought it would be saturated and/or mixed out by now, but it's only getting more entrenched. The south half of the precip shield is decaying rapidly. Yet areas that were supposed to be much drier, Houston and Austin(!), ended up being significantly wetter than us.

Once this current band of precip passes Lafayette it looks like there will be an extended break... if not the end of the event here. There's still lots of precip upstream of us in far SE Texas and the Gulf, but will it hold together as it moves into this drier atmosphere?

[windnrain]

Thanks for the explanation.

From base reflectivity, its about 30 miles north of us right now. So as long as it moves south, we'll be good.

I see a lot of west-east motion. Hoping that precip and the overall feature takes a turn in that direction, its pretty much our only hope.

[windnrain]

Why do major weather websites use composite anyway? Base seems much more accurate.

[PTrackerLA]

The composite loop out of Houston is showing increasing echoes and some banding features developing:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

If this doesn't hold together and move into my area that will probably be all she wrote. 12z GFS still insisted we have about .30" of precip left. If that was to occur this would have to be it. Starting to get discouraged about seeing ANY snow .

[BigB0882]

Unbelievable. Huge huge busy for us but not for people elsewhere.

[Hurricane_Apu]

I wish I knew what was causing this dry bubble. It's not a true dry slot, as there is no closed surface low. The dry air isn't being advected from anywhere... there's actually heavy precip falling all around the dry area... north, south, east and west.

Temps could also become an issue for us if the precip halts for several hours, or if the sun actually pops out...

[HurriGuy]

on a positive note…seems like maybe the southward race the field of moisture was taking might finally be slowing down.

The WV still looks promising, but this still looks disappointing.

[windnrain]

There is a little rain falling outside in BR, but it's not even freezing rain. Its melting rain. There's no glaze or anything.

[BigB0882]

It is freezing rain, temps are well below freezing. I see some very light flurries from time to time. This is such a joke. I am in the worst mood. How do we have this huge system spanning all these states and we get less than a drizzle out of it? TWC has taken notice, they begin immediately decreasing our precip chances in the next hour and continue to do so until it is gone. Looks like this is it for us and we get what really equates to nothing. Oh well, maybe next decade.

[JSDS]

Everything that is elevated is glazing at my house - garbage can lid, patio chairs & table, etc. We have had rain, light sleet, and periods of heavier sleet. My temp has dropped to 26 and has been holding there for the past couple of hours.

[HurriGuy]

radar is filling back in over SW LA!

[windnrain]

Don't tempt me, I can't take heartache again lol!