WPAC: KAJIKI - Tropical Storm 02W

[stormkite]

Location: 10.3°N 145.4°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb




http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[euro6208]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/wpac/anim/latest72hrs.gif

Nice looking cyclonic turning...

Been raining all day yesterday and temperature is VERY COLD!

looks like the weather won't go away anytime soon.

[stormkite]

http://www.westernpacificweather.com/20 ... x-outlook/
Watching this.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[euro6208]

92W INVEST 140128 0000 7.6N 146.5E WPAC 15 1010

[euro6208]

92W INVEST 140128 1200 9.4N 144.1E WPAC 15 1010



flareup of convection around an exposed LLC but surely is consolidating.

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 9.0N 145.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES FLARING, DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 281219Z METOP-B 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS AN AREA OF LINEAR
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN FLANK OF AN ILL-DEFINED LLCC. A
281124Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH WEAK CORE WINDS
AND 15 TO 20 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE AND WESTERN QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE FUELING BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

Here we go!

[dexterlabio]

It does look better. What I forgot was the strong MJO pulse over Maritime/WPAC which could feed developing tropical systems with moisture and offset the dry air from the north. Compared to Lingling, I am more confident that this will make at least a named tropical storm.




Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org.

[stormkite]

92W INVEST 140129 0000 9.0N 141.4E WPAC 20 1004

[mrbagyo]

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0N
145.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 141.4E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM EAST
OF YAP ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN AREA OF
LINEAR DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. A 282359Z
AMSU-B IMAGE REVEALS THE POSITION OF THE CONSOLIDATING LLCC AS WELL
AS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE NORTH. RECENT SCATTEROMTERY PASSES
HAVE INDICATED A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH WEAK CORE WINDS AND 15 TO 20
KNOT NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND
WESTERN QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH A LIMITED AREA OF WEAK TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TC WITHIN THE NEXT 48-60 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[mrbagyo]

WTPN21 PGTW 290530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.2N 142.7E TO 8.3N 133.8E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 290500Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 141.4E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0N
141.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 141.4E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM EAST
OF YAP ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. A 282359Z
AMSU-B IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
DISPLACED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO MODERATE (15 TO 20
KNOTS) SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND
WESTERN QUADRANT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM YAP INDICATE AN SLP
VALUE OF ABOUT 1004 MB WITH A 24-HOUR SLP DECREASE OF 2.5 MB. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW, WHICH IS
FUELING THE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. DYNAMIC MODELS
INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS
WESTWARD TOWARD YAP AND KOROR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
300530Z.//
NNNN


awww. that was quick

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Reminds me of Krosa last November.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

About the above post, Krosa was a struggling TS which strengthened before making landfall in Luzon as a Category 1/2 during the strong late-season MJO which produced 6 major typhoons.

[stormkite]

TD
Issued at 07:05 UTC, 29 January 2014

<Analyses at 29/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N9°30'(9.5°)
E141°50'(141.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 30/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°05'(9.1°)
E136°55'(136.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[euro6208]

Just got home and the downpour from this disturbance has been TREMENDOUS! Been raining for days and so far today is the wildest with flooding reported throughout Guam.

Blowup of convection right over us!

[euro6208]

930
WGMY80 PGUM 291221
FLSMY

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1021 PM CHST WED JAN 29 2014

GUC010-291515-
/O.NEW.PGUM.FA.Y.0005.140129T1221Z-140129T1515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GUAM GU-
1021 PM CHST WED JAN 29 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TIYAN GUAM HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE ISLAND OF GUAM

* UNTIL 115 AM CHST

* AT 1013 PM CHST...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LINE OF SHOWERS
FORMING OVER GUAM.

* HEAVY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAIN TO GUAM TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN
LOCAL FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW-LYING AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY AWAY FROM STREAMS...DRAINAGE DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS PRONE
TO FLOODING. BE ALERT FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE TO
PONDING...REDUCED VISIBILITY AND POOR BRAKING ACTION.

DO NOT CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE OR ON FOOT.
TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

&&

THIS ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 115 AM CHST IF HEAVY
RAIN PERSISTS.

LAT...LON 1368 14502 1348 14498 1327 14488 1317 14479
1319 14457 1339 14451 1357 14461 1369 14485

$$

ZIOBRO


863
WWGM80 PGUM 291101
AWWGUM
GUZ001-291400-

AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING FOR GUAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM
902 PM CHST WED JAN 29 2014

A THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
UNTIL 12 AM THURSDAY CHST.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF
THE AIRPORT. BE ALERT AND TAKE PRECAUTIONS AS REQUIRED.

$$

ZIOBRO

[euro6208]

92W INVEST 140129 1200 8.9N 140.3E WPAC 20 1003

Decrease of 1 mb!

[Alyono]

No surprise the JTWC is not even close with its winds. Satellite data indicates winds are very nearly TS intensity. JMA has this right.

Should the thread title be changed as this is officially a TD now?

[cycloneye]

No surprise the JTWC is not even close with its winds. Satellite data indicates winds are very nearly TS intensity. JMA has this right.

Should the thread title be changed as this is officially a TD now?

Yes,we always follow JMA to edit the title of threads.

[cycloneye]

TD
Issued at 19:10 UTC, 29 January 2014
<Analyses at 29/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N8°35'(8.6°)
E140°50'(140.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 30/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°20'(9.3°)
E135°35'(135.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[euro6208]

Less rain today but the howling of the winds make me unpleasant.

92W INVEST 140129 1800 8.4N 138.4E WPAC 20 1002