Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Portastorm]

Another thing to monitor is the progression of Winter Storms spreading across the Central Plains. The dry NW flow aloft that has been present for the past 35-40 days will change beginning later this week with the first in a series of storms that will lay down snow where there has been little to none. That should assist in less air mass modification as that snow pack increase over time.

Now THAT map I'll take. That puts it all north of me, unlike one I saw here earlier.

We wouldn't know what "north of me" is since you don't have your location posted on your profile.

[TheProfessor]

The thing that excites me the most is that the models so far this year have miss judged our temps by 3-5 degrees. The models have the temperatures during the first event in my area being 34-35 degrees. So if they are off again than it could be wintery fun for the Denton county area.

[Portastorm]

The thing that excites me the most is that the models so far this year have miss judged our temps by 3-5 degrees. The models have the temperatures during the first event in my area being 34-35 degrees. So if they are off again than it could be wintery fun for the Denton county area.

It's faulty logic to assume that a computer model will repeat the same error twice. While computer models clearly have biases, some well known ... one really can't say for sure if, for example, since the GFS had my location too warm by three degrees that it will happen again the next time a storm system rolls through. Just be careful about making that assumption, Professor.

Besides, winter is over for Denton County. Didn't you get the email?!

[TheProfessor]

The thing that excites me the most is that the models so far this year have miss judged our temps by 3-5 degrees. The models have the temperatures during the first event in my area being 34-35 degrees. So if they are off again than it could be wintery fun for the Denton county area.

It's faulty logic to assume that a computer model will repeat the same error twice. While computer models clearly have biases, some well known ... one really can't say for sure if, for example, since the GFS had my location too warm by three degrees that it will happen again the next time a storm system rolls through. Just be careful about making that assumption, Professor.

Besides, winter is over for Denton County. Didn't you get the email?!

No, it must have been sent to my spam folder . Anyway I live close enough to Tarrant county so what they get, i''ll likely get.

[KatDaddy]

I am hoping you get some Winter fun up there Professor. It your turn from this point until the end of Winter. I am ready for sunny and 90F.

[TheProfessor]

I am hoping you get some Winter fun up there Professor. It your turn from this point until the end of Winter. I am ready for sunny and 90F.

Thanks! And You can have that 90F and sunny weather! I am patiently waiting for Tornado season to start back up, as that is my favorite weather. but while I wait I hope to have a few snowstorms in between.

[Texas Snowman]

PWC Preps "Operation Glaciation" for Texas Winter Weather Fans

Austin, Texas -- After two brushes with significant winter weather over the past several days, the Portastorm Weather Center in scenic southwest Austin went into full blown "Groundhog Mode" earlier today.

Seen ducking in and out of doors at the PWC weather center, chief forecaster Portastorm was spotted this afternoon with a bundle of folders under his arm that read "Top Secret: Winter Weather Eyes Only!"

When asked about the folders, Portastorm smiled wryly and said "I'd better not tip my hand too soon. But the bottom line is that we are in Groundhog mode at PWC, getting ready to unveil "Operation Glaciation" to the delight of winter weather lovers across the great state of Texas. If things go as planned, expect six weeks of wintry fun."

When pressed for details, Portastorm answered "I'll defer to my esteemed colleague Ntxw for a full explanation next week. But suffice it to say that we had a covert operation a couple of weeks ago and wrestled the Texas weather machine away from Lord Vader over in Houston. All of that talk of a progressive flow, no snow for you, and 90 degree weather in February was just too much. I went undercover, feigned a mid-winter meltdown and pretended to switch over to the dark side. It was all a ruse to cover the tracks of our crack team of special agents who snuck into Wxman57's bike shed and stole the weather machine back."

Portastorm said that his office is setting the Texas weather machine dials carefully after a couple of near misses and big storms that hit to the east in Louisiana and at other points across the South.

"We thought we had things where we wanted them last week but we were a few degrees off in our calculations. As a result, Austin, San Antonio, Houston, Beaumont, and even the Rio Grande Valley got a taste of winter weather, but not the full blown event that we are hoping to provide by season's end. We love our friends in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. But they've had their winter fun, it's our turn now."

Adding to the intrigue, the PWC released a prepared statement this afternoon from its North Texas operations director, Ntxw: ""The -EPO is approaching -2SD's (daily values) and the WPO has begun it's trek downwards and is well in negative territory. There is a well advertised Aleutian ridge that will park into Alaska. This feature, an omega block, will likely send our -EPO into the 3-4 SD's below normal - similar to that of early December - so expect a similar cold snap to bleed down the Rockies next week. Likewise the PNA is rapidly falling and will approach negative sending the Polar jet down from Canada/Alaska into the southern Rockies and southern plains. A couple of big storms will come out of this configuration."

Will one of those storms be a big "Hey Lucy! In Your Face!" storm for central and SE Texas? Will North Texas get the 10-20-inch snowfall some model runs were tantalizing winter weather fans with overnight? Will storms and cold and rumors of storms and cold rule Texas weather in February? Will cold worthy of the hushed tones of February 1899 enter into the Storm2k weatherboard conversation?

"I can't say for sure," smiled Portastorm. "But we like the trends. And we think we've got the weather machine tweaked to our liking. We'll see. At the very least, it's hidden safely away from you know who."

Without addressing any questions from the gathered press - including whether the weather machine is hidden in North Texas under the watchful care of The Professor, rumored to be the next esteemed member of the PWC weather family - Portastorm smiled and left the building.

"Just stay tuned next week and through the month of February," he said in his best Elvis voice. "If you liked early December in Texas, you're going to love the period of Groundhog Day to the Ides of March."

[gpsnowman]

Well done Texas Snowman.

[Tireman4]

I am hoping you get some Winter fun up there Professor. It your turn from this point until the end of Winter. I am ready for sunny and 90F.

Watch your tongue Katdaddy. I still want more cold.

[TheProfessor]

Im flattered.

[gto67]

Well said Texas Snowman. Very insightful.

[Ntxw]

And there you have it, award winning PWC publicist and field reporter. I sense a Tony to be won...

The NTX branch of PWC is declaring the arrival of --WSI next week, the most since 2009/2010. Possibly the greatest of the winter. Folks the CFSv2 has gone nuts with cold down the middle of the country, European ensembles has a dagger of cold into wxman57's lair, GEFS much the same. This is going to be December x2, may we open the gates and finish off this long winter's war one last time!

[Ntxw]

Here's something interesting from one of the FW discussions this morning around 10AM. The models busted this morning's lows, that's for sure all across the area. DFW Airport recorded 16F officially which is 1F higher than the coldest reading thus far of 15F early January.

"ALLIANCE AIRPORT FELL TO 8 DEGREES THIS MORNING WHICH TIED THE ALL-TIME LOWEST TEMPERATURE FOR THAT AIRPORT. SOME UNOFFICIAL SITES ALSO REPORTED LOWS OF 7 DEGREES."

[TeamPlayersBlue]

27.3F here already, dewpoint is 14.0F. Brrrrr

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Curious note in the afternoon AFD from FTW...

issued 351 PM CST Wednesday Jan 29 2014/ the overall weather pattern is in the beginning stages of transitioning to a warmer one but significant changes are on the way for next week.

[Ntxw]

GFS gives us a little surprise next Monday in North and NW Texas, snow showers? Interesting first time it's done this, but it's been close close previously and Euro sorta kinda tried

[Lagreeneyes03]

Curious note in the afternoon AFD from FTW...

issued 351 PM CST Wednesday Jan 29 2014/ the overall weather pattern is in the beginning stages of transitioning to a warmer one but significant changes are on the way for next week.

Where are they coming up with that? The always wrong this year CPC? Seems to be opposite of general consensus here.

[Ntxw]

Curious note in the afternoon AFD from FTW...

issued 351 PM CST Wednesday Jan 29 2014/ the overall weather pattern is in the beginning stages of transitioning to a warmer one but significant changes are on the way for next week.

Where are they coming up with that? The always wrong this year CPC? Seems to be opposite of general consensus here.

Punctuation issues, they probably mean warmer pattern from now into the weekend from chill but changes are ahead next week. Which is correct, that's what happens when you take it into context without posting the whole thing.

[TheProfessor]

GFS gives us a little surprise next Monday in North and NW Texas, snow showers? Interesting first time it's done this, but it's been close close previously and Euro sorta kinda tried

http://i58.tinypic.com/vdfrc4.gif

It seems like when the temperatures are there the precip is lower but when the temperatures are slightly above, the precipitation is way higher.

[Ntxw]

It seems like when the temperatures are there the precip is lower but when the temperatures are slightly above, the precipitation is way higher.

That's the first system, it was mostly rain for all runs before tonight. The second system on the GFS (the big one we've been talking about) is a whiff. GFS has it ejecting in Texas but sends the snow all the way up to Nebraska and Iowa which doesn't make any sense when the surface low cyclogenesis should be happening underneath the ejecting 5h low. Third system on the models almost makes as a winter storm it but then you go beyond truncation.