Texas Winter 2013-2014

[srainhoutx]

The synoptic pattern as well as the analogs from the CPC continue to advertise 1985 ish signals which brought a record 14 inches in a 24 hour period to the Alamo City. There are several things that I have noticed in the trend the past several cycles. 1) The general 500MB pattern suggest a very deep trough developing from Western Canada on S in to the Great Basin into Northern Mexico as well as Texas and Central North America. 2) The SE Ridge is appearing once again which tends to favor a blocking pattern where the SE United States warms up and upper air disturbances ride S into Northern Mexico before eject ENE along the mean trough axis. 3) Very cold air is building across Western Canada and the Plains as multiple Winter Storms lay down fresh snow cover across areas that have had little of any moisture for the past 35-40 day with the dry NW flow aloft. 4) The temperature anomalies continue to increase to a much colder regime across the Great Basin, Inter Mountain West and Plains including Texas.

The pattern is certainly changing to a somewhat similar 'look' to that which we witnessed in late November/early December. What may favor our Region during this pattern change are the fact that our climatology suggests this is our Winter Weather 'Prime Time" and we are certainly seeing a 500MB pattern that may well delivery additional chances of wintry mischief. We will warm up over the weekend, a weak from will stall along the Coast and a big Winter Storm will cross the Central/Southern Plains into the Mid West and Great Lakes Region and on E into Mid Atlantic and NE. Strong to severe storm are looking likely across Louisiana and perhaps portions of E Texas and Arkansas next Monday into Tuesday as the Winter Storm treks across the Plains. A very strong Arctic air mass will plunge S into the Southern Plains and Texas in the wake of that Winter Storm and the next is a series of disturbances drop S into the Southern California/NW Mexico area and begin their trek across Southern Arizona/New Mexico and Texas. That pattern suggests some interesting days ahead that may well linger into the mid February time frame before the pattern once again transitions. We will see.

[Ntxw]

I was about mention that the chance for freezing rain on Sunday, is it possible that the freezing line could move another 15-20 miles southeast? And if it does could it increase our chance for winter weather in the early part of our week?

The little Monday system is interesting. There isn't a blasting air mass of Arctic air. This shortwave looks quite robust and actually will come out going negative tilt. What this means is a trowel will develop and moderate to heavy band of snow will likely occur underneath it. Lots of dynamic cooling involved because there is a 5h shortwave overhead cooling the column (opposite of warm nose set up). It's the opposite of overrunning and spokes of energy we've seen with ice, so I believe snow is more likely than ice. So depending on where it moves everyone to left and north side of it is in play, which according to the euro it goes just slightly S and E of the metroplex.

[Kelarie]

From Shreveport NWS -

...THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE ZONAL AND A SERIES OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING OUR WAY. OVER TIME THE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT WILL ALLOW A PHASING OF DISTURBANCES INTO AN AMPLIFYING
TROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE PACIFIC MOISTURE AS THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHWEST. THE MOISTURE ALONG WITH A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT
NUDGES SOUTHEAST AS THE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND EJECT NORTHEAST. THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE GULF COAST MONDAY...AND THEN RETURNS
INTO THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. COLD AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA MAY PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AND
AGAIN FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY UNTIL THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

23.4F last night here at the TPB weather center. Temp was dropping so fast last night till onshore flow returned. Temp occurred at around 2am

[dhweather]

The chart titles aren't correct, but these are the 0Z and 6Z GFS for DFW. Maybe 12Z will be more promising.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

The shortwave that is expected to trek across northern Texas on Sunday looks interesting, too. Models have consistently shown this and have appeared to increase precipitation totals with this system. Someone along the Red River may see a little surprise.

[Ntxw]

The shortwave that is expected to trek across northern Texas on Sunday looks interesting, too. Models have consistently shown this and have appeared to increase precipitation totals with this system. Someone along the Red River may see a little surprise.

That's the Monday system I was talking about. 12z GFS looks a little stronger and much wetter (euro like qpf) but tracks the low across the Red River/Southern Oklahoma so dumps snow up there. Now we just need a little south trend upon ejection preferably like the euro.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

The shortwave that is expected to trek across northern Texas on Sunday looks interesting, too. Models have consistently shown this and have appeared to increase precipitation totals with this system. Someone along the Red River may see a little surprise.

That's the Monday system I was talking about. 12z GFS looks a little stronger and much wetter (euro like qpf) but tracks the low across the Red River/Southern Oklahoma so dumps snow up there. Now we just need a little south trend upon ejection preferably like the euro.

Oh, okay! I wasn't sure if you were talking about that one. Yeah, just a little further south would be nice. The 12Z NAM is showing a pretty potent and wet system as well; granted it's towards the end of its run, so we know how 'iffy' the NAM can be this far out. It'll be fun to watch.

[dhweather]

Maue tweets:

Saturday looks messy in Chicago w/winter mix & snow from weak storm system.

[TheProfessor]

The shortwave that is expected to trek across northern Texas on Sunday looks interesting, too. Models have consistently shown this and have appeared to increase precipitation totals with this system. Someone along the Red River may see a little surprise.

That's the Monday system I was talking about. 12z GFS looks a little stronger and much wetter (euro like qpf) but tracks the low across the Red River/Southern Oklahoma so dumps snow up there. Now we just need a little south trend upon ejection preferably like the euro.

So that system is also going to give parts of North Texas some ice Sunday Morning? And what is the chance that the low tracks 180-150 miles further south? That could be one big storm if that happened.

[Ntxw]

Maue tweets:

Saturday looks messy in Chicago w/winter mix & snow from weak storm system.

Just curious, what does this have to do with Texas? That's a different northern stream storm.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

So that system is also going to give parts of North Texas some ice Sunday Morning? And what is the chance that the low tracks 180-150 miles further south? That could be one big storm if that happened.

Still too early to say for sure, but I would say there's definitely a chance for the Red River Counties to see some type of wintry precipitation on Sunday with this system. If it tracks 75-100 miles southward, then a bigger portion of north Texas may see some fun. The trend has been stronger and wetter, so it'll be fun to watch. Of course this is my opinion, so you may want to check the FW NWS for their official word

[dhweather]

Maue tweets:

Saturday looks messy in Chicago w/winter mix & snow from weak storm system.

Just curious, what does this have to do with Texas? That's a different northern stream storm.

The graphic indicates nothing but liquid precipitation over Texas.

[dhweather]

Another Maue tweet

Massive storm Tues-Wed impacts Chicago, Ohio Valley to DC w/winter weather.




Texas looking mighty dry.

[Ntxw]

The graphic indicates nothing but liquid precipitation over Texas.

But that system is totally unrelated? You're posting a Friday/Saturday thing during the warm up not the Sun/Monday system after we're talking about.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Maue tweets:

Saturday looks messy in Chicago w/winter mix & snow from weak storm system.

Just curious, what does this have to do with Texas? That's a different northern stream storm.

The graphic indicates nothing but liquid precipitation over Texas.

Go out to 78 hours through about 90 hours of the 12Z GFS. You'll see the system we are talking about.

[Red Raider fan]

Where do we go to pull up the 12z gfs?

[Red Raider fan]

Dont see alot of people on here since all the winter fun has gone away, but i believe more winter fun is on its way. This is just a intermission sord of speaking.

[dhweather]

The graphic indicates nothing but liquid precipitation over Texas.

But that system is totally unrelated? You're posting a Friday/Saturday thing during the warm up not the Sun/Monday system after we're talking about.

It's Texas weather. Sorry if it's not what you are talking about, but it's Texas weather.

[Ntxw]

It's Texas weather. Sorry if it's not what you are talking about, but it's Texas weather.

Fair enough, we'll let you lead the pack next week in analyzing the pattern . I need a break and vacation anyway and Portastorm is exhausted!