Texas Winter 2013-2014

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Where do we go to pull up the 12z gfs?

You can go to twisterdata.com

[Portastorm]

Where do we go to pull up the 12z gfs?

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=20140130%2012%20UTC&param=10m_wnd_precip&fourpan=no&imageSize=M

[Portastorm]

Are y'all having trouble breathing in this dry air? Mouth. lips and nose feeling dry? Skin itching more?

Once again, we don't know what air you're talking about as you have no indication on your profile where you are. Texas? Minnesota? Alaska? Siberia?

[Red Raider fan]

Thanks Graysonco

[dhweather]

12Z GFS for DFW - the header on the second chart should read 1/30 , still working on it.

[Red Raider fan]

Doesn't look like much for y'all or for us down south tx.

[dhweather]

Doesn't look like much for y'all or for us down south tx.

Pretty bleak - .77 total in 384 hours. Outside shot at any winter precip.

[iorange55]

Doesn't look like much for y'all or for us down south tx.

That will change by this weekend.

[Red Raider fan]

I'm not showing any cold readings for us, but will have precip in the area.

[Rgv20]

I'm gonna enjoy the warm weather for tomorrow (forecast high 81) and Saturday (forecast high 85). IIRC if we reach 80+ tomorrow it will be the only time I would have surpass 80 for this month of January.

[Portastorm]

Doesn't look like much for y'all or for us down south tx.

Sometimes looking at computer models verbatim for weather a week from now is problematic. As wxman57 has counseled us many times in the past, it's best to look at the upper air pattern (500mb) and source region air temps to determine what type of cold air/warm air will be impacting a region. To me, the big takeaway for next week for Texas ... as evidenced by the GFS, Euro, and CMC ... is that there will be two storm systems impacting the state and that there will be a baroclinic zone established with very cold air on one side and warmer, moist air on the other. Where that actual "zone" or line sets up is anyone's good guess at this point. Hopefully by this weekend we can get a better sense on what actual weather may transpire.

IMO ... looking at model surface weather depictions or meteograms re: next week's weather in Texas and getting worked up emotionally (either way) is asking for heartache. They're likely to change from model run to run and model type to type (for example: last 3 runs of the Euro have shown snow of Austin next week. The GFS has not).

[Tireman4]

From Travis Herzog, Meteorologist at KTRK in Houston on his Facebook:

Winter is far from over. A pattern change is underway that will initially send our temps soaring into the 70s Friday and Saturday, but the end result is more cold comes to Houston, starting with a quick shot of cold on Super Bowl Sunday followed by longer duration cold later next week. Here's why - the jet stream is splitting and shifting, which will allow more moisture to interact with arctic air over the western and central parts of the America and Canada. This will lay down a snow pack across the plains which keeps the arctic air refrigerated for longer as it slides south into Texas. That means more cold air is coming, and with added moisture from the splitting jet stream, perhaps more precipitation than what we've had so far in this relatively dry winter. I can only give you a macro view of this weather pattern for now, so it's too early to pinpoint when it gets colder, how cold it gets, and whether or not we get any precipitation with the cold. Specifics will come as we get into next week. But the message is clear: Winter ain't over yet in Texas.

[Red Raider fan]

Thanks Porta, sorry for the inexperiance on my part.

[wxman57]

12z GFS is still quite different from the Euro. I.E., no snow for NE TX next week.

[Tireman4]

12z GFS is still quite different from the Euro. I.E., no snow for NE TX next week.

So no more upside down maps sir? Your Summer is coming?

[Red Raider fan]

I tend to believe TIREMAN4, I do believe something wicked this way cometh later next week.

[Ntxw]

Could be worse right? Dry endless NW flow and all systems to the east. Good thing its flipping.

[Portastorm]

Thanks Porta, sorry for the inexperiance on my part.

Absolutely no need to apologize. We are all inexperienced here to one degree or another!

I just offered some unsolicited advice for you and anyone else who cares to read and may find value in my posts. My point was that all of us should get a general idea for next week from the models but don't get bummed out or really excited because when you see such divergence from the GFS and Euro, for example, that tells you basically "Ok, I know something is probably going to happen next week but I'm not quite sure what exactly."

Long-timers here will know that I speak from experience. It wasn't all that long ago that I was posting every model run with exuberance or with wailing and gnashing of teeth. That's where the whole Lucy thing got started as I equated my role as being Charlie Brown and the computer models promising winter weather for Austin being Lucy with the football. Needless to say, I have spent A LOT of time over the years on my backside.

It's all good, so get your guns up!

[TheProfessor]

Is there place I can view the European model?( other than wunderground)
and the gfs. ' s 500mb temperatures are cold. Though I don't know if they're cold enough

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Is there place I can view the European model?( other than wunderground)
and the gfs. ' s 500mb temperatures are cold. Though I don't know if they're cold enough

500mb is best for identifying the general flow characteristics, and to also identify shortwaves within that general flow. One can also identify regions of PVA and NVA in the 500mb.