Florida Weather

[northjaxpro]

I am now receiving light sleet and snow flurrfes swirling around at my locale. Currently rr degrees.

[northjaxpro]

There was a brief period of about 15-20 minutes between 2 a.m. and 3 a.m. earlier this morning that very light sleet and tiny snow grains fell at my locale. It was unique to see this occur. Cecil Field in the west Jax also reported sleet. I reported what I observed to one of the forecasters at NWS office just down the road from me and they reported "unknown precip". But, the forecaster I spoke to confirmed several folks who called in and stated sleet and another repoert of snow grains as well on the north portions of the Jax area.

Measured just over an inch of rain going into this morning. This rainfall has been good to have considering this is normally our dry season. It did get to 32 degrees this morning, making it freeze #7 for the season to date, with 6 of them all occuring this month.

Now, today will be the last cold day for quite awhile as the pattern does the flip-flop again. The PNA goes negative as we start February. The SE ridge will once again park over the region for the foeseeable future and look for what we had in December statewide, unseasonably warm temps. Temps will be well into the 70s for max temps this upcoming weekend. Have to admit, after this month's cold spell, the warm-up will feel rather nice going into February.

[NDG]

What a wet morning this has been here in western Seminole County & NW Orange County, actually since Wednesday, but we will take it we know it could be a lot drier than now.
This morning we have been in a converging zone, showers keep forming & moving right over the same area. Today was supposed to start drying out with temps in the low 80s, if this continue I doubt we will see the sun and temps any close to 80 as forecasted.

[HURRICANELONNY]

With signals of NAO/AO/PDO I doubt any front will come through S.Fl anytime soon. Think the Euro will win out on this:

Long term (tuesday-friday)... the extended guidance remains in decent agreement through much of the period and indicates the dry and warm conditions associated with a deep layer ridge overhead continuing. Temperatures are forecast to remain above average with highs forecast to reach the middle 80s each day and lows forecast to reach the low 65 to 73 range each night across the area. GFS ensemble mean/GFS/ECMWF continue to indicate a cold front moving into the region through the middle- week period. The GFS solutions show this boundary digging southward into our area through this time while the European model (ecmwf) indicates it stalling north of our area.

[NDG]

With signals of NAO/AO/PDO I doubt any front will come through S.Fl anytime soon. Think the Euro will win out on this:

Long term (tuesday-friday)... the extended guidance remains in decent agreement through much of the period and indicates the dry and warm conditions associated with a deep layer ridge overhead continuing. Temperatures are forecast to remain above average with highs forecast to reach the middle 80s each day and lows forecast to reach the low 65 to 73 range each night across the area. GFS ensemble mean/GFS/ECMWF continue to indicate a cold front moving into the region through the middle- week period. The GFS solutions show this boundary digging southward into our area through this time while the European model (ecmwf) indicates it stalling north of our area.

Even with the GFS showing the frontal boundary making it down to S FL it shows lows resuming in the upper 60s to low 70s with the core if cold remaining north of FL.

[TheStormExpert]

You'd think we are in late spring with the current pattern we are in.

(Forecast Discussion from Miami, FL @ 2:23 PM Mon. February 3rd, 2014)
SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE WEATHER MUCH OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL NEAR THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED NORTHEAST
OF THE BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO USHER IN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST
AIR MASS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH LAND/SEA
INTERACTION COMBINED WITH A SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOIST LAYER TODAY HAS
LED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR. EXPECT
COVERAGE TO INCREASE FURTHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...FOG IS ANOTHER GOOD BET OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND COVERAGE COULD BE
ENHANCED BY THE EARLIER RAINFALL.

SIMILAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MINIMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
80S AND LOWS 60S...ASIDE FROM LOW 70S EASTERN METRO AREAS.
CURRENTLY...PBI AND MIA ARE ON TRACK TO TIE AND
BREAK...RESPECTIVELY...RECORD HIGH MINIMA. PBI RECORD IS 74F FROM
1982...MIA RECORD IS 73F FROM 1990.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY...THEN APPROACH
JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTH FLORIDAS
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTS CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY MOISTURE COULD LINGER ACROSS THE REGION.
LITTLE TEMPERATURE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Well atleast cooler by next week. I really didn't think it would make it but the Noreaster will bring the front through by sun. night mon. morning time frame..

Both the GFS and the European model (ecmwf) show a stronger front moving across South Florida later this weekend which will bring a much cooler air mass to the region for early next week.

[NDG]

It has definitely felt like late Spring around the Orlando area since Sunday with highs in the mid 80s and dewpoints near 70 degs! Enough heat in the afternoons have pop up some summer like showers each afternoon.

[NDG]

Well atleast cooler by next week. I really didn't think it would make it but the Noreaster will bring the front through by sun. night mon. morning time frame..

Both the GFS and the European model (ecmwf) show a stronger front moving across South Florida later this weekend which will bring a much cooler air mass to the region for early next week.

Last night's runs of both the GFS and ECMWF have backed away from the strong cold front they were showing during the past few days to pass through late weekend into early next week, they now show temps only cooling down to near average for highs for central and south FL, which makes sense with the PNA remaining negative and the NAO remaining positive.

[gatorcane]

Looking rather summery out there today across South Florida with afternoon thunderstorms building over the Everglades and heading NE with a SW steering flow and seabreeze collisions.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Just like summer with afternoon storms out west. Slowly heading east. Got a little shower in Hollywood. A friend in weston said it was flooding. Hope for cooler weather next week but it doesn't look too promising as NDG said about the models. Is a big spread according to some models. I guess if the lows phase a stonger front down here.

Slightly cooler and drier air may move into South Florida early next week. Ensembles show a large spread in temperatures behind the front for early next week, so forecast confidence is low with regards to temperatures behind the cold front Sunday.

[northjaxpro]

A classic isentropic lift scenario is shaping up for much of the northern and northeast portions of the peninsula beginning tonight. A very shallow cool air mass is in place today behind a cold front which is draped across the central peninsula. An upper level shortwave currently moving across the Lower MS Valley is promoting a SW moist flow aloft that will override into the shallow cool air and bring in widespread rain across the region later tonight into Friday. Should see rainfall amounts from 1-2 inches in some spots across the northern peninsula.

The rain is very good as normally this is the dry season in these parts. We should not hopefully have any wildfire concerns approaching spring. Also, examining the long range models, we should not have any freeze concerns across the Jax area and northern peninsula through at least the next 10 days. The PNA looks to remain negative and the NAO, as has been the case most of this winter, looks to stay positive going well into February.

[psyclone]

it's pretty amazing to note that there's been no freeze in my neighborhood so far this winter...only a couple of very light frosts. the window for a freeze quickly closes in the latter half of Feb around here so time is running out. very nice to tiptoe through both the tropical and freeze seasons.

[Sanibel]

It's been like a winter with no winter this year.

[northjaxpro]

Well, to this point, have only measured 7 days of freezing temps here at locale this season. Normally, we average a total of 16 freezes in a typical meteorological winter. So, overall it has been a warmer than normal winter to this point. Thanks to a very strong -PNA during the entire month of December, the peninsula had one of the warmest Decembers ever on record. Had no freezes for the entire month at my locale in December. Measured six total freezes for January a the pattern did revert o a +PNA for the month.

So far, unless the pattern reverts to a slightly -NAO or +PNA pattern, it is looking as if February will be like December with no freezes seen on the horizon. There may be a chance early Friday morning for a very light freeze over the normally islated colder areas of North Florida as MOS guidance is showing near freezing temps near Tallahassee and Suwannee River Valley.

[northjaxpro]

Well. just had a notable wind shift to the northeast and clouds are increasing. Looks as if a back door cold front has passed through the Jax area. Current temp here is 56.3 degrees. Looking at obs across SE GA, temps currently range primarily from the upper 40s in Savannah to lower 50s to Brunswick.

So, the cool air wedge hs made it to NE Florida as a frontal wave has moved just east of the Georgia coast. The more potent shortwave moving across Northern TX is moving east and that will help induce cyclogenesis along the Northern Gulf Coast late tonight into Wednesday. This Low Pressure area is forecast to move right across North Florida area during the day tomorrow

Much depends on how far south the cool air wedge gets the next 12-24 hours. The wedge would keep the atmosphere stable enough to reduce the risks of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms further south and west where the warm sector will be. The exact track of the Low on Wednesday with any deviations of 50-100 miles will make a huge difference in terms of possibility of the warm sector moving back over the Jax area Wednesday afternoon. I will be watching this closely on Wednesday.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Well no freeze down here but at least some cooler air. 40's at night for couple days.

High pressure will then build into the Florida Peninsula late this week allowing for drier and cooler weather to work into the area. At this time...it looks like low temperatures on Friday morning will be in the lower to middle 40s over most of South Florida...except upper 40s to lower 50s southeast portions of South Florida.

[cycloneye]

Heads up in SouthCentral Florida Penninsula for some severe weather.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014

VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF FL PENINSULA...

...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL/ERN CONUS...AND ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC REGIME ACROSS
W COAST. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY
FROM AR TO SE TX AND NERN MEX...AS WELL AS FROM ERN SD SSWWD
ACROSS-CENTRAL NEB AND WRN/CENTRAL KS. FASTER MOVEMENT OF TRAILING
PERTURBATION WILL RESULT IN ESSENTIALLY PHASED/STRONGER TROUGH
MOVING EWD ACROSS SERN CONUS THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...THOUGH
ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMA MAY REMAIN DISTINCT. BY 12Z...500-MB
LOW MAY DEVELOP OVER SRN APPALACHIANS REGION WITH HIGH-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS GA...ERN PORTIONS FL
PANHANDLE...ERN NERN GULF.

AT SFC...11Z ANALYSIS INDICATED FRONTAL-WAVE LOW JUST OFF WRN FL
PANHANDLE COAST...AND COLD FRONT SWWD OVER CENTRAL/SWRN GULF. THIS
LOW SHOULD TRAVEL ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN FL PANHANDLE THEN
OFFSHORE GA...AS ANOTHER CYCLONE DEEPENS FARTHER NE ALONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER ATLC. BY END OF PERIOD...ERN LOW SHOULD BECOME
PREDOMINANT INVOF NC OUTER BANKS..WITH COLD FRONT SSWWD ACROSS
ERN/SRN FL PENINSULA. AT 11Z TWO WARM FRONTS WERE DRAWN--
1. SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY DEMARCATING COLDEST CONTINENTAL AIR FROM PARTLY
MODIFIED C.P. TRAJECTORIES THAT FOLLOWED PRIOR FROPA. THIS BOUNDARY
EXTENDED FROM LOW ESEWD NEAR BUOY 42036...BECOMING WEAK COLD FRONT
FOLLOWED BY NLY/NELY FLOW OVER CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. OVERLAND PART
OF THIS FRONT IS DECELERATING...AS WINDS TO ITS N VEER TOWARD MORE
ELY COMPONENT WITH DEPARTURE OF WEAK ATLC LOW AND APCH OF
FRONTAL-WAVE SYSTEM.
2. MARINE FRONT DENOTING NRN EDGE OF MOST COMPLETELY MODIFIED
MARITIME AIR...EXTENDING SEWD FROM LOW ACROSS E-CENTRAL GULF THEN
EWD OVER PORTIONS KEYS/STRAITS. THIS BOUNDARY AND RELATED AIR MASS
MAY REACH PORTIONS WRN/SRN FL FROM LATE AFTN INTO EVENING...PRIOR TO
PASSAGE OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND AND COLD FRONT.

...FL...
SVR THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT GREATER AND BETTER-ORGANIZED THAN IN
PRIOR OUTLOOKS...WARRANTING UPGRADED PROBABILITIES. PRIMARY THREAT
IS DAMAGING GUSTS...BUT TORNADO POTENTIAL NOW APPEARS AT LEAST MRGL
IN NATURE OVER MUCH OF PENINSULA.

MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE WELL-ORGANIZED OVER NERN GULF FOR
MANY HOURS BEFORE MOVING ASHORE AND INTO STILL-MOISTENING AIR MASS
OVER FL PENINSULA...AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT. MAIN UNCERTAINTY...AND
MOST LIMITING FACTOR FOR SVR RISK...REMAINS RATE OF PRECONVECTIVE
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY NE OF AFOREMENTIONED MARINE
FRONT. STILL...ONCE DAYTIME MIXING/DRYING EFFECTS OF INLAND
BOUNDARY LAYER ARE QUELLED BY COMBINATION OF MOIST ADVECTION AND
LOSS OF INSOLATION...NARROW WEDGE OF MID-UPPER 60S F SFC DEW POINTS
ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR N AS CENTRAL FL PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF MAIN TSTM
LINE. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS WOULD SUPPORT SFC-BASED
INFLOW...WITH MINIMALLY INHIBITED MLCAPE TO 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE.
VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH TIME WILL MITIGATE GREATER VERTICAL
SHEAR...THOUGH SUPPORTIVE LOW-LEVEL SRH IS INDICATED FOR BOW/LEWP
FORMATION AND AT LEAST TRANSIENT SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION WITH ANY
SUSTAINED/DISCRETE TSTMS. VEERING SFC FLOW ALSO WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH PROXIMITY TO SRN/MARINE FRONT..AND MAY ADVECT RICHER SERN-GULF
MOISTURE INLAND.

AHEAD OF MAIN TSTM AREA...SEPARATE CLUSTER OR BAND OF CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP OVER ERN GULF AND OFFSHORE SWRN FL/KEYS...MOVING NEWD TO EWD
OVER CENTRAL/S FL. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR EACH ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT FROM S-CENTRAL PENINSULA THROUGH
KEYS/STRAITS...SOME ACTIVITY THAT FAR S MAY PRODUCE GUSTS APCHG SVR
LIMITS.

FARTHER N ACROSS NRN PENINSULA AND COASTAL BEND REGION...SUBSTANTIAL
SFC DESTABILIZATION APPEARS LESS PROBABLE...SO SVR NUMBERS ARE KEPT
MRGL THERE

[northjaxpro]

Checking surface obs late this morning, the warm front extends generaly along a line from Crystal River eastward to Ocala to just south of Saint Augustine. The rapidly developing Low Pressure system is currently positioned just south of Mobile, AL.

A potential strong to severe weather slight risk is possible across portions of north and especially central peninsula. The cool air wedge is holding tough across Northeast Florida, so the best dynamics for possible strong to severe storms will be mainly just south and southwest of the Jax metro area. But, if the warm front can briefly move north of Jax late today, that would heightened the risk of stronger storms here tonight before the intensifying Low moves off the GA coast later tonight and sweeps a cold front through the area.

[northjaxpro]

Temperature has dropped 4 degrees the past two hours, now at 47.4 degrees. The cool air wedge is firmly entrenched over my area, which indicates to me that the warm front will stay to the south of the Jax area and the Low pressure area will just about move right over the NE Florida area, There is a steady or moderate area of rain moving east along I-10 corridor, and will aarive here in the next couple of hours. However, the stronger or potentially severe storms will remain to the south across areas south of a line from Cedar Key to Daytona Beach.