SPAC: DYLAN - Tropical Cyclone

[stormkite]

12.0S 171.0E

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[stormkite]

Bom moving the low west and building over the net few days

[stormkite]

latest model

[hurricanes1234]

Remember what happened with June.

[stormkite]

99P INVEST 140127 0600 14.6S 154.3E SHEM 20 998

Thanks hurricanes1234 this works great and saves time.

[hurricanes1234]

99P INVEST 140127 0600 14.6S 154.3E SHEM 20 998

Thanks hurricanes1234 this works great and saves time.

You're welcomed, I like it too! I wonder what this invest will do.

[stormkite]

If it does form they are saying its expected to make landfall in the next 2 days looking at it on sat-pic still looks awful to me wont be surprised if it is just a big rain event. Another model has it moving south with no land fall that track would head into a 20-30 knot shear. . Not convinced myself it will even make cyclone strength time will tell.






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[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.6S
157.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 154.5E, APPROXIMATELY 570 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING AND BROKEN DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE OUTER
PERIPHERIES OF AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
270324Z COLOR COMPOSITE AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE LLCC IS
STARTING TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE DESPITE THE SYSTEM REMAINING OVERALL
BROAD AND ELONGATED WHILE THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION REMAINS POOR.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THE LLCC
LIES UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD OUTFLOW IN BOTH THE EQUATORWARD
AND POLEWARD DIRECTIONS WHILE LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS PERSISTED. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT 48 TO
72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[stormkite]

99P INVEST 140128 0000 15.2S 153.4E SHEM 30 997

WTPS21 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9S 154.0E TO 18.0S 149.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 280230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.2S 153.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6S
154.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 153.4E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING SLOWLY WRAPPING
INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH IS
ALSO EVIDENT IN A 282340Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. A 282340Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS ALONG
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES WITH WEAKER (20 TO 25 KNOT)
WINDS IN THE CORE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. WARM (GREATER
THAN 28 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HIGH OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT IN THE CORAL SEA ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE FOR QUICK
DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE THE CURRENT ELONGATION, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS IMPROVED UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS IN THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO QUICKLY ORGANIZE AND CONSOLIDATE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Low
Issued at 3:59 pm EST Tuesday 28 January 2014.



Remarks:
The tropical low, is expected to move in a general westwards direction over the next couple of days and may
develop further as it approaches the Queensland east coast. GALES may develop between Port Douglas and
Proserpine during Wednesday afternoon and could persist into Thursday.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop about coastal and adjacent inland areas of
the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands, Herbert and Lower Burdekin and northern parts of the Central Coast
and Whitsundays districts during Wednesday afternoon and should continue into Thursday.

As the cyclone approaches the coast, a storm tide is expected between Port Douglas and Proserpine, mainly
on the high tide on Wednesday and Thursday. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore.
People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as
much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

[stormkite]

99P INVEST 140128 0600 15.5S 152.9E SHEM 25 1004

.

[stormkite]

11P ELEVEN 140130 0000 17.6S 148.5E SHEM 45 989

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone Dylan
Issued at 2:04 pm EST Thursday 30 January 2014.



Remarks:
Tropical Cyclone Dylan has formed off the north Queensland coast and is expected to continue moving in a
general southwesterly direction and gradually intensifying, before crossing the Queensland coast between
Lucinda and Proserpine in the early hours of Friday morning.

The cyclone and a strong ridge of high pressure further south are combining to generate GALES at times along
much of the east coast between Cardwell and St Lawrence. Winds are expected to increase further between
Lucinda and St Lawrence, particularly about the Central Coast and Whitsundays district, during the remainder
of today and extending to adjacent inland areas on Friday morning with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120
kilometres per hour possible.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop about coastal and adjacent inland areas of
the Herbert and Lower Burdekin and the Central Coast and Whitsundays districts during today.

Coastal residents between Lucinda and St Lawrence, including Townsville are specifically warned of the
dangerous storm tide, particularly on the high tide today and on Friday. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a
level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the
shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their
property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised
to do so by the authorities.

A storm tide is expected between Cardwell and Lucinda, particularly on the high tide on Thursday and Friday.
Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this
flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their
neighbours.

[stormkite]

http://www.oscilmet.com.au/?page=l.m&r=241
radar

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Cyclone Dylan

[Rod Hagen]

Intensified to an intensity 2 over night & crossed the coast near Bowen. http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml

[stormkite]

11P DYLAN 140130 1800 20.4S 148.2E SHEM 50 985

[Yellow Evan]

Appears to be inland. Hopefully everyone is okay.