Texas Winter 2013-2014

[TheProfessor]

Any news on the 12z Euro for North Texas.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Is the Euro perhaps struggling with the shallowness of cold air next week?, It has a 1050 mb high coming down the plains, but yet the freezing line never gets pass the I-20 corridor seems fishy...

Wondered the same thing, but iirc, the high doesnt "crash" into the plains

[orangeblood]

How far in advance did the models sniff out Winter Weather for SETX the last 2 events? Was there any type of consensus a week out that we would see something? Who performed the best 5/6 days out?

The Globals (Euro/GFS/CMC) sniffed out the event of a week ago (last Friday) about a week out. The events of Tuesday were not handled well by the Global models even 12 hours out. If we look back to last November, the signals were trending toward a Winter Storm across N Texas about a week and but missed the freezing rain/sleet and even snow that fell across the Hill Country and even down to Victoria and then as the upper low passed, the snow that fell from Huntsville on E into Louisiana was not modeled at all.

Not so sure about that srainhoutx, the GFS never gave into the big qpf that the Euro and NAM were showing leading up to Tuesday's storm. It was very consistent with less than 0.10 inch qpf for Austin into Houston metro - thus below winter storm warning criteria. It was nails with the storms in North Texas in late November and early December as well.

[TheProfessor]

Steve McCauley posted this image for the Sunday system.

Why can't it be snow! I guess it's good thing that the super bowl is not in Dallas this year.
Has he posted anything about his stat-method for this weekend?

[dhweather]

Steve McCauley posted this image for the Sunday system.

Ant there's the smallest county in Texas, Rockwall, green. Well, the rain will be nice.

[orangeblood]

Any news on the 12z Euro for North Texas.

Only a half to one inch of snow for North Texas late next week according to the Euro, it flattens the trough as it kicks out of the southwest (probably due to the southeast ridge it insists on becoming stronger) and so has much less precip.

[TheProfessor]

Any news on the 12z Euro for North Texas.

Only a half to one inch of snow for North Texas late next week according to the Euro, it flattens the trough as it kicks out of the southwest (probably due to the southeast ridge it insists on becoming stronger) and so has much less precip.

So would it be better if the ridge was weaker than predicted.

[wxman57]

Any news on the 12z Euro for North Texas.

12Z Euro backed off on the snow next Thursday up around Dallas. It now has about a trace to 1/2" there.

[davidiowx]

Is it still showing anything for Central and SE Texas?

[PTrackerLA]

:uarrow: Is it still showing anything for Central and SE Texas?

Much lighter amounts all north of Houston. Less than 1" from about Lufkin-Nachitoches.

[wxman22]

:uarrow: Is it still showing anything for Central and SE Texas?

It still shows plenty of moisture around southeast Texas but temps are a smudge too warm,( temps in the upper 30s to low 40's) but it COULD be struggling with the shallowness of the cold air, time will tell, it'll be interesting to see if it gets colder in the next few runs, or stays warm.

[wxman57]

:uarrow: Is it still showing anything for Central and SE Texas?

A little (half inch or so) up east of Lufkin to north of Alexandria, LA.

[dhweather]

OK, next week is a bust.




The models will change at least three more times by Wednesday.

[orangeblood]

Any news on the 12z Euro for North Texas.

Only a half to one inch of snow for North Texas late next week according to the Euro, it flattens the trough as it kicks out of the southwest (probably due to the southeast ridge it insists on becoming stronger) and so has much less precip.

So would it be better if the ridge was weaker than predicted.

From what I've noticed: the weaker the southeast ridge, the better chances for winter precip further into central and south Texas. There is a fine line though because the ridge sometimes helps increase baroclinic strength and usually lift/QPF amounts

Also, something an old school met/professor taught me a few years ago when attempting to pin point storm tracks - is to find the snowcover line and storm tracks will usually follow directly to the south of this line (where temperature change is the greatest). If you look closely, you can see this translate to what some of the models are showing over the next 7-10 days


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products

[Ntxw]

I'd hate to be a forecaster next week. A lot of things in motion and a lot of storms to keep track, with models flipping against each other and between their own runs just tough. Wouldn't want a surprise like Atlanta again! Nervous forecasters a little more so than usual.

[wxman57]

I'd hate to be a forecaster next week. A lot of things in motion and a lot of storms to keep track, with models flipping against each other and between their own runs just tough. Wouldn't want a surprise like Atlanta again! Nervous forecasters a little more so than usual.

Yeah, me too. Wait, I am one!

[Tireman4]

OK, next week is a bust.




The models will change at least three more times by Wednesday.

If not more....

[Tireman4]

I'd hate to be a forecaster next week. A lot of things in motion and a lot of storms to keep track, with models flipping against each other and between their own runs just tough. Wouldn't want a surprise like Atlanta again! Nervous forecasters a little more so than usual.

Yeah, me too. Wait, I am one!

Wait, I thought you were a librarian....

[gboudx]

Has he posted anything about his stat-method for this weekend?

You can read it on his page. https://www.facebook.com/wfaa.steve.mccauley

Anyone can read it whether they have a FB account or not, or if he's your friend on there or however that works. I do not have a FB account and I can read it.

[orangeblood]

I'd hate to be a forecaster next week. A lot of things in motion and a lot of storms to keep track, with models flipping against each other and between their own runs just tough. Wouldn't want a surprise like Atlanta again! Nervous forecasters a little more so than usual.

What is really worrisome regarding late next week is the potential for a repeat of icemageddon but this time temps are going to be even colder leading up to the storm and anything that does fall will freeze on contact north of the freezing line. Ironically, the storm is scheduled to hit almost exactly 60 days from the 2013 Icemageddon storm - would be a fitting end to the winter of 13/14