Texas Winter 2013-2014

[gboudx]

I'd hate to be a forecaster next week. A lot of things in motion and a lot of storms to keep track, with models flipping against each other and between their own runs just tough. Wouldn't want a surprise like Atlanta again! Nervous forecasters a little more so than usual.

Yeah, me too. Wait, I am one!

Wait, I thought you were a librarian....

I thought he was a professional biker who dabbled in making weather videos on Youtube occassionally.

[Tireman4]

Wait, I thought you were a librarian....[/quote]

I thought he was a professional biker who dabbled in making weather videos on Youtube occassionally. [/quote]


So you are saying he is a charlatan
?

[dhweather]

Hindcast.

Eight days ago, the GFS said this:





As I sit here, its sunny and 74


This serves as an example of how much models can be off 7-8 days out.

[wxman57]

Great! That means the current forecast of 30s and 40s late next week will probably be off by a lot. Should be in the mid 70s!

[dhweather]

Great! That means the current forecast of 30s and 40s late next week will probably be off by a lot. Should be in the mid 70s!

Because you've been pressing the heat button, which I don't mind at all. I don't mind cold IF IT SNOWS, which hasn't happened this year. The Ice Storm doesn't count as snow.

[Portastorm]

Great! That means the current forecast of 30s and 40s late next week will probably be off by a lot. Should be in the mid 70s!

Didn't I tell you just that very thing a few pages back?!

[dhweather]

Then there's this jewel:



I'm not a meteorologist, I don't play one on TV either. I didn't even stay at a holiday inn express last night. That said, I'm pretty sure it will not be 5 degrees tomorrow.

[Ntxw]

That's why relying on meteograms and model output without a deeper look at patterns is dangerous, risky business these models! Almost as bad as the mid month winter cancel torch!

[wxman57]

The long-range meteograms can pick up on major weather events in winter, but there can also be many false alarms. I tend to trust them more in June, July and August.

[gboudx]

The long-range meteograms can pick up on major weather events in winter, but there can also be many false alarms. I tend to trust them more in June, July and August.

Hot and dry is an easy bet.

[South Texas Storms]

Great! That means the current forecast of 30s and 40s late next week will probably be off by a lot. Should be in the mid 70s!

Because you've been pressing the heat button, which I don't mind at all. I don't mind cold IF IT SNOWS, which hasn't happened this year. The Ice Storm doesn't count as snow.

I'm enjoying the warm 70 degree temperatures today! Now I just want the dewpoint temperature to get up into the 60s and then have a major heavy rain event across Texas!

And I agree, the only way I can enjoy the cold is if I get some snow.

[South Texas Storms]

This afternoon's AFD from the NWS in Austin/San Antonio is already mentioning possible wintry precipitation with the system late next week:

"MUCH COLDER WEATHER FOR THE MID AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
FREEZE ALL AREAS THURSDAY MORNING AND COLD THURSDAY AS CLOUDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN ALL
AREAS. THIS ALSO MATCHES UP WITH OUR WFOS TO THE NORTH."

[Tireman4]

The long-range meteograms can pick up on major weather events in winter, but there can also be many false alarms. I tend to trust them more in June, July and August.

Well of course you do.

[gpsnowman]

:uarrow: Hey wxman57, does it still show good amounts for DFW?

If you consider 1-2" a good amount, then yes.

I do think that is a good amount. If that's what is given then I love it!

[gpsnowman]

Steve McCauley posted this image for the Sunday system.

https://scontent-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos ... 7339_n.jpg

Why can't it be snow! I guess it's good thing that the super bowl is not in Dallas this year.
Has he posted anything about his stat-method for this weekend?

The frozen precip line has slowly migrated southeast the last couple days. Keep it comin!

[Tireman4]

Steve McCauley posted this image for the Sunday system.

https://scontent-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos ... 7339_n.jpg

Why can't it be snow! I guess it's good thing that the super bowl is not in Dallas this year.
Has he posted anything about his stat-method for this weekend?

The frozen precip line has slowly migrated southeast the last couple days. Keep it comin!

Aint no way it will get here (Houston)...LOL

[Red Raider fan]

I really don't see any freezing temps down here at all, precip will probably be all rain, maybe a cold rain thats all for late next week.

[TheProfessor]

Are any of the models showing 50 degrees for North Texas on Tuesday. Because that's what NWS FWD is forecasting.

[orangeblood]

GFS continues to trend colder for late next week's system, freezing line all the way down to Austin over to College Station as isentropic lift begins late Thursday night.....MAJOR ice storm in part of North Texas if this run came even close to verifying - anywhere from 0.75-1.25 of an inch of liquid falling into sub-freezing surface temps.

[Tcu101]

First time caller, long time listener Thought I would chime in and help the page count go up. I'm in the roofing business so I love hail, but enjoy winter weather too.
Quote from AFDFWD "FRIDAY COULD GET INTERESTING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ONCE AGAIN WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.