Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Portastorm]

First time caller, long time listener Thought I would chime in and help the page count go up. I'm in the roofing business so I love hail, but enjoy winter weather too.
Quote from AFDFWD "FRIDAY COULD GET INTERESTING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ONCE AGAIN WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

Welcome Tcu101! Great to have you and thanks for posting. Love the help too on raising that page count.

Hopefully we can bring you some winter weather next week and some hail this spring. Hail comes from storms. Storms rain on people. Rain = good.

[wxman22]

18z GFS shows freezing rain as far south as Houston ( has almost a .25 of an inch of liquid at temperatures at or around freezing ). As far as Dallas goes it shows possibly part 2 of what happened in December...

[funster]

Dallas is only allowed one freezing rain storm per season. We already had one of those. Therefore the next storm has to be snow.

[Snowman67]

18z GFS shows freezing rain as far south as Houston ( has almost a .25 of an inch of liquid at temperatures at or around freezing ). As far as Dallas goes it shows possibly part 2 of what happened in December...

For what time period?

[orangeblood]

18z GFS shows freezing rain as far south as Houston ( has almost a .25 of an inch of liquid at temperatures at or around freezing )

With deep snowpack getting established across the central plains, wouldn't expect a lot of modification of the Arctic Airmass as it anchors in over central plains middle of next week. In other words, not too surprising that GFS has been trending colder further south. Friday could be a very nasty day across a big part of the state!!

[cycloneye]

Here is the 18z GFS loop that shows what our friend orangeblood said. Concentrate on the end of the loop and you will see plenty of red in Texas that is Ice.

[orangeblood]

Notice how the path of late next week's storm follows a line directly south of the snowpack that gets established during the Tuesday/Wednesday system. This is where the baroclinic zone will probably set up shop as it travels east so Tuesday's system could have a big influence on the late week storm


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[TheProfessor]

Any chance the models are underestimating the amount of precip for North Texas on Sunday?

[Wthrlvrmom]

I have been a follower since 2012 and I read through this all day every day! I guess I'm more of a fan than a follower (or both) Thanks for everyone's insight and always keeping me ahead of the game!

[orangeblood]

Well the NCEP CVSv2 is all aboard for late next week severe cold, 15-25 deg F below normal for a 5 day stretch beginning Wednesday

[Ntxw]

Looks like I may have cranked wxman57's weather machine to Ice Ice baby too much, should tone it down a little for let it snow. Good thing it's only test runs till next week!!!

And now your daily fun segment with ntxw. Week 1 from the year that must not be named.

"This frigid arctic airmass was drawn southward by a storm system which moved in off the Pacific at the Oregon coast and slipped southeastward over the Great Basin toward southwest Texas in the following days. By the 4 February, the cold air reached the southern tier of states from California to the Carolinas. The cold gave Truckee, California a month’s low temperature of -21°F (-29.4° C), and a -30°F (-34.4° C) reading at Boca, California was the state’s coldest temperature. Even Southern California was not immune to the cold. In Los Angeles, the mercury dipped to 33°F (1° C)) on the 4th, and San Diego slipped to 34°F (1.1° C) on the 6th."

"Meanwhile, a second and colder airmass was forming in the arctic which by the 7th lay over the Canadian Prairies (Saskatchewan, western Manitoba and eastern Alberta) with a central pressure 0f 1045 mb (30.86 inches Hg) at Swift Current, Saskatchewan. The temperature at Minnedosa, Manitoba that morning hit -43°F (-41.7° C) , the first of four straight mornings with temperatures below -40°F/C) (the coldest at -50°F (-45.6° C) on the 9th); Battleford, Saskatchewan plunged to -37°F (-38.3° C) and Winnipeg, Manitoba hit -38°F (-38.9° C). The airmass moved southward beginning on 7 February as a strong storm system formed from a trough of low pressure over Georgia and along the US southeast coast. This storm would rapidly move into New England on the 8th and the Canadian Maritimes the following day."

Did someone say 1050+ today?

http://www.islandnet.com/~see/weather/almanac...

[srainhoutx]

Evening Update from Jeff:

Active weather period over the next 7 days will bring rapid changes to SE TX.

Warm southerly flow continues this evening with surface dewpoints pushing 60 along the coast and offshore buoys showing low to mid 60’s over the central and NW Gulf heading this way. With nearshore water temperatures in the low 50’s would expect the incoming warm and humid air mass to chill to saturation while passing over the cold waters near the coast and form a dense sea fog bank. So far no visibility issues along the coast this evening, likely due to winds being just a little too strong to form fog. Winds should gradually weakening tonight into Saturday and think this is the best time for dense sea fog to form. Sea fog will likely spread inland from the coast on Saturday evening as moisture increases and wind drop ahead of the next cold front on Sunday.

Sunday:
Frontal boundary will cross the region during the day with a chance of showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm. Mid levels are looking warm so thunderstorms will likely be far and few…but there will be a good chance of showers along and ahead of the boundary. This is a shallow but potent front and temperatures at the surface will fall from the 60’s ahead of the boundary into the 40’s behind the boundary by Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.


Sunday night-Monday:
Cold surface high pressure will build into the region, but this will be short lived as the next upper trough approaches quickly from the west. Frontal boundary will stall over the Gulf waters and start to return northward as a warm front on Monday. Expect cloudy conditions with drizzle and fog developing from the coast northward on Monday afternoon into the evening hours. Temperatures will slowly warm from the 40’s into the 50’s.

Tuesday-Wednesday:
Warm front moves northward into the area, but not sure how far north it will get late Tuesday. Strong lift will arrive along with good moisture to produce a round of showers and thunderstorms across the area. Do not expect severe weather at the moment, but one is always aware of such potential when a warm front is in/near a region. Think once again warm mid level temperatures will suppress effective thunderstorm generation. Wednesday front will be of more arctic origin and will see a rapid temperature fall on Wednesday as the front crosses the region. Should see all rainfall end prior to any potential for freezing temperatures so not looking at any freezing/frozen precipitation.

Thursday-Saturday:
Arctic cold dome entrenches over the area once again. Think models are not handling the potential with this air mass very well given the frequent storms next week in a SW to NE track across the southern and central plains which will lay down a good amount of snow and ice across the plains. Cold air flowing out of Canada will be passing over this snow/ice and not modifying as much as it could. Think models will trend colder and colder over the next few days. Fast and active upper flow will continue and yet another storm system will approach the region by late Thursday into Friday. This storm looks fairly potent and with cold arctic air entrenched over the state some areas could be faced with P-type concerns. For now given the poor model run to run and model to model agreement will keep everything rain over SE TX and await better confidence.

Note: Latest release of the US drought monitor shows drought conditions continuing to worsen across SE TX. Rainfall has been lacking since late November and this trend has continued through December and January. The next few days will offer some of the best rain chances much of the region has faced in months and hopefully this will lead to some wetting of the top soil layers and vegetation and help keep fire weather concerns down. Unfortunately rainfall amounts look least to the southwest around Matagorda Bay and southwest of that where drought conditions are most severe currently.

[Ntxw]

Well the NCEP CVSv2 is all aboard for late next week severe cold, 15-25 deg F below normal for a 5 day stretch beginning Wednesday

I agree that is astounding especially from a climate model and for a 5 day average, must be some astronomical daily anomalies. Never thought I would ever see those kind of anomalies from it in our neighborhood, ever. You see it in Siberia or somewhere in far northern Asia.

Ensembles not too far behind

[Ntxw]

Breaking News: Kiss of death (spring) for wxman57, with love from NOAA



May be more appropriate for spring thread but worth noting

[gpsnowman]

It's rather slow in here tonight.

[dhweather]

First time caller, long time listener Thought I would chime in and help the page count go up. I'm in the roofing business so I love hail, but enjoy winter weather too.
Quote from AFDFWD "FRIDAY COULD GET INTERESTING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ONCE AGAIN WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

Welcome!

[dhweather]

Breaking News: Kiss of death (spring) for wxman57, with love from NOAA



May be more appropriate for spring thread but worth noting

Boy, CPC has BLOWN IT this winter - badly.

[katheria]

Dallas is only allowed one freezing rain storm per season. We already had one of those. Therefore the next storm has to be snow.

I dont think i can handle another one......im still cleaning up!

[TheProfessor]

Dallas is only allowed one freezing rain storm per season. We already had one of those. Therefore the next storm has to be snow.

I dont think i can handle another one......im still cleaning up!

yeah I sure hope that storm is an all snow event. 4 inches of sleet isn't very fun. But 12 inches of snow is!

[TheProfessor]

It looks like the GFS has DFW in a dry slot on Sunday. I sure hope this is not a trend!