Texas Winter 2013-2014

[somethingfunny]

Why's this thread so quiet? The front seems to be ahead of schedule. It's definitely blown through Decatur... as far as I know, it was supposed to stall out back near Jacksboro tonight and not cross the Metroplex until tomorrow night. I'm hearing talk it may blow through by noon tomorrow now.

[katheria]

no clue was wondering that myself LOL.....

maybe everyone said " ITS FRIDAY! PARTY TIME"

[TheProfessor]

I really hope that cold front can get past my house before it stalls.

[katheria]

000
FXUS64 KFWD 010516
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1116 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014

.AVIATION...
PLENTY OF IFR BEHIND THE FRONT IN OKLAHOMA...AND WITH GUIDANCE
MORE PESSIMISTIC HAVE ADDED IFR TO METROPLEX TAFS BEGINNING BEFORE
SUNRISE AND CONTINUING A WHILE AFTER FROPA. NAM/RAP SHOW FROPA
EARLIER AS WELL. HAVE CONTINUED THE IFR TRENDING AT WACO AND
ADJUSTED FROPA BASED ON NAM/RAP AS WELL.

MAJOR CONCERNS REMAIN ABOUT JUST HOW WINTER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP
FOR METROPLEX TAF SITES...WITH MODELS STILL HINTING THAT MOST OR
ALL PRECIP WILL BE OVER BEFORE SUNDAY TEMPS COOL DOWN BELOW
FREEZING. 00Z RUNS JUST COMING IN NOW AND METROPLEX REMAINS RIGHT
ON THE EDGE OF THE WINTER PRECIP. A SMALL LOWERING OF SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE THE FORECAST A LOT. 84

time to hit the store tomorrow i guess out of that danged milk again

[Tcu101]

Steve McCauley keeps nudging the frozen stuff deeper Into the metroplex for this Sunday and also increased coverage to 90%. He says " slick and slide day for NW part of DFW.

[opticsguy]

This looks bad. I'm supposed to fly out of DFW Monday and back Friday.

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten ... bs=1&con=1

[TheProfessor]

NWS FWD has my point forecast at an 80% chance of wintry mix tomorrow. Any news with the 0z Euro?

[SouthernMet]

Metroplexers should check out Cavanaugh's AFD this morning. WSW up for Oklahoma & NW tx.

IMO the more significant event is still on tap for Thursday/Friday. But as my friends Orangeblood & Ntxw have pointed out - the snowcover this one
is going to lay down, will play a big role in the next one.

[gboudx]

Metroplexers should check out Cavanaugh's AFD this morning. WSW up for Oklahoma & NW tx.

IMO the more significant event is still on tap for Thursday/Friday. But as my friends Orangeblood & Ntxw have pointed out - the snowcover this one
is going to lay down, will play a big role in the next one.

Steve McCauley hinted at the late week system but didn't provide any details yet.

[SouthernMet]

Metroplexers should check out Cavanaugh's AFD this morning. WSW up for Oklahoma & NW tx.

IMO the more significant event is still on tap for Thursday/Friday. But as my friends Orangeblood & Ntxw have pointed out - the snowcover this one
is going to lay down, will play a big role in the next one.

Steve McCauley hinted at the late week system but didn't provide any details yet.

Because it would be pointless. A lot can change in 6-7 days, so he is waiting till we get a better idea on specifics. It's usually maybe 24-48 hours out, or whenever the systems comes ashore to finalize details.

edit : although models are starting to come closer to an agreement on the late week system

[Ntxw]

The Euro is still 1-2 inches for the metroplex and 2-3+ is dangerously close. Will be interesting how cold air and dynamics play a role while this storm tries to kick out slightly negative tilt tomorrow.

Deformation band will cause some forecasting headaches for sure

[Ntxw]

Why's this thread so quiet? The front seems to be ahead of schedule. It's definitely blown through Decatur... as far as I know, it was supposed to stall out back near Jacksboro tonight and not cross the Metroplex until tomorrow night. I'm hearing talk it may blow through by noon tomorrow now.

DFW's already switched to NW wind. High of 64 will not make it even close, 30s are moving just to the NW.

[dhweather]

6Z GFS - trending a little colder each run. As Ntxw pointed out, there's more to the forecast than a meteogram. These give you a general idea of how things will go, but there are other factors models simply don't handle well. Fact is, cold air always seems to run 6-12 hours faster in arriving than the models show. The trend is your friend, and I hope the trend gets to the upper 20's and SNOW - no ice.

[Tejas89]

This front came through faster than forecast! Was expecting a warm run this morning.

If these models were dead on there'd be no need for weathermen. Hope temps stay above freezing or if not we just get snow. Anyone hoping for iced bridges and trees needs to see a therapist.

[dhweather]

There appears to be a cold front somewhere in Dallas county.

[TheProfessor]

I have a feeling that because of the cold fronts faster arrival, areas who got the from before sunrise may see more than 2 inches of snow. The SREF has our mean qpf at .34 right now which wold be almost 3.5 inches of snow.

[iorange55]

It sure would be nice to have a surprise snowstorm for my birthday tomorrow! I am hoping it's not ice. I am starting to become more concerned with the system later in the week, though. Seems like it's definitely going to be cold enough for freezing precip, but I am not so sure that it will be snow.

[TwisterFanatic]

Front is definitely ahead of schedule up here in Oklahoma, highs were supposed to get into the mid 40's before the front got here, but it's right on my door step and it's 34. Light Freezing Rain/Sleet is falling in the Tulsa area.

[Ntxw]

Deformation band, maybe that word will catch on with the weather service soon. Shift it's current model position by 30-50 miles, depedent on where the low moves, and you got yourself a surprise event.

I believe earlier in the week this storm was in Kansas courtesy of the GFS

[Tireman4]

Question,

Is this front moving much faster than first thought? The reason I ask is that Houston is not expecting this front until tomorrow afternoon ( I think). Is that thinking premature?